Rep. Garret Graves does not sound ready to call it quits despite getting targeted for political extinction by his fellow Republicans in Louisiana's new congressional map, which Gov. Jeff Landry signed into law on Monday. “I expect to run,” Graves tells NOLA.com's Tyler Bridges in a new interview, "and I expect to be re-elected."
It's not clear, though, what Graves' survival plan might look like. The completely revamped 6th District would have voted for Joe Biden by a 59-39 margin, making it deeply inhospitable for any Republican. (The prior iteration backed Donald Trump 64-34.) That means Graves would likely have to challenge a fellow incumbent in a primary, but which one?
Graves' seat was chopped up between five other districts, but the largest slice wound up in GOP Rep. Julia Letlow's 5th: Graves represents 43% of that redrawn constituency while Letlow represents nearly all the rest, according to a new analysis from Daily Kos Elections.
But data from Dave's Redistricting App shows that such a matchup might be more closely divided, since approximately 111,000 Trump voters live in Graves' portion of the new 5th, while 117,000 live in Letlow's. (Another 111,000 Biden voters live in the district, and they'd be able to participate due to Louisiana's unique all-party primary, which will remain in effect until 2026 despite forthcoming changes to the state's election procedures.)
Letlow, however, is popular with GOP power brokers, who reportedly sought to protect her district and would likely rally around her in an intraparty faceoff. But one further option remains for the congressman: Graves could challenge the new map in court, and he's hinted he might.
According to Bridges (whose piece charting the trajectory of Graves' career is worth reading in full), the congressman "has indicated that he believes" the courts "will reject the new map." Graves, however, is not a party to the current litigation, and with plaintiffs expressing their support for the new map, Graves or an ally would likely have to step forward to make a case for why the new districts do not pass legal muster.
Editor’s note: This piece has been updated to include a reference to Gov. Jeff Landry signing Louisiana’s new map into law.
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