Trump’s Math
In Iowa, nearly half of the voters in the R primary refused to vote for Trump.
In NH, it’s about a quarter of the registered R’s who voted for Nikki, and very much did not want to vote for Donny.
It’s been pretty clear for a long time now that a large portion of the R electorate really dislikes him, really doesn’t want to see him as Emperor, and is at least quite reluctant to vote for him.
I don’t know just how big that portion is (and neither does anyone else), but it seems entirely reasonable, based on a whole bunch of diverse evidence, that it might be, say, a THIRD.
I’ll round down a little, for the sake of arithmetic convenience, and to make skeptics a little more comfortable.
I’ll call it 30%.
Some of those folks, of course, may grumble a lot, but will eventually ‘come home’ and vote for this sack of shit anyway. (In some cases because they’re of the incredibly stupid belief that ‘Biden’s even worse;’ in others just because they feel some insane impulse towards ‘loyalty’ to their chosen party, no matter how utterly fucking murderously insane it may be.)
There is no doubt that there are others whose aversion to Trump is deep, and serious, and unshakeable.
They really hate the motherfucker (as any sane person would and should, of course), and they’re NOT gonna vote for him, no matter what.
Again, no one knows what the relative proportions of those two sub-groups are, and I sure don’t claim to know either.
It’s pretty clear from lots of polls, and anecdotal info from interviews, etc. (plenty of which we’ve seen around both primaries in the last two weeks), that the latter group is big.
It seems to me fairly reasonable to make the wild ball-park guess that the latter group might be something on the order of half of the anti-Trump R’s. (I.e., half of the Rs who refuse to vote for Trump —a large portion of their bloc in both primaries so far— are refusing because they hate him or fear him so much, they’re just not gonna vote for him in any circumstance.)
So what’s this mean, in big-picture basic-math terms??
Let’s say 40% of the electorate in the general next year turn out to be registered R’s.
(I don’t know what the actual number is, but I doubt it can be too far off that, and this is all just ballpark back-of-the-napkin shit anyway. And if it turns out the number’s much smaller than that, that’s only cuz an increasing number of folks call themselves ‘independents,’ and plenty of those folks are basically R’s, so it’s probably safe to say that there’s easily 40% of the population highly likely to vote for the R in any given national election, right?)
Here we go: If 30% of those folks are disinclined to vote for Trump, that’s 12% of the entire voting pop.
If only half of those really mean it, that’s 6% of the whole pie.
That’s a LOT.
That’s six points of Donny’s vote-share you can take away right there.
If you thought he had 48% without accounting for these people, it’s 42 now.
And of course it’s actually worse than that.
Some of those people will vote for Biden. (Others will just sit home, or write in Nikki Haley or Mickey Mouse, or whatever)
Once again, we’ve got no idea what those proportions are, but judging by interviews and exit polls and everything else we’ve seen lately, it sure seems like there are quite a few who will vote for Biden when that’s their choice against Trump.
I’m gonna once again assume it might be half, just for easy math, and also because it seems to me that’s probably a decent wild guess.
Half of those 6% don’t just sit home and twiddle their thumbs, but go and cast one for Joe.
That’s three points you add right there to the Biden column.
Do the addition, folks. Six plus three is usually NINE.
That’s a NINE-POINT swing in the margin towards the Dems.
If you’d thought Joe was at 48 —just to pick a plausible easy number—
He’s at 51 now.
What you might’ve thought of as a 48-48 tie without considering these disgusted Republicans is now a 51-42 demolition.
These fractions might all be different, of course. I might be too optimistic on some.
If you think I’m way high, and the accurate resolution comes out a lot lower than my estimates indicate, then maybe it’s only a 5-point swing.
A 5-point swing is still huge. The Shit-Stain’s not making that up, in his most wildly optimistic Hitlerian fantasies.
And that’s all assuming he’s NOT on his way to multiple felony-convictions, and jail,… which he is.
Our idiot MSM are presenting Trump’s last two weeks as some kind of massive triumph. What it really is is a slow-mo disaster.
We’re seeing it laid out, plain as day, that this motherfucker’s doomed.
Last night’s not a victory for this rancid slab of scum; it’s another nail in his coffin.
In case you haven’t grabbed the point yet, I’ll crystallize it for ya:
Trump’s going DOWN.
He’s going down so damn hard he’s gonna leave a slimy, rancid puddle of orange grease when he hits the canvas.
It’s gonna be glorious.
We’ll see ya real soon, Donny. And we’ll keep your cell warm while it waits for ya.