The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.
Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast
Leading Off
● MS Ballot: Mississippi's GOP-led state House has voted to advance a constitutional amendment that would restore the ballot-initiative process that the state's conservative Supreme Court obliterated in 2021. The way they went about it, though, has alienated Democrats—and potentially the Republican leader of the state Senate.
The legislation, most notably, would bar many topics from appearing on the ballot at all, including initiatives that might weaken the state's near-total ban on abortion. Even Republican Lt. Gov. Delbert Hosemann seems to think these restrictions go too far, but House Republicans don't seem inclined to compromise on his desires for a "pretty clean ballot initiative."
But is this plan still better than nothing for progressives, who currently can't get anything on the ballot? Take a look at Jeff Singer's piece for more on the amendment, as well as its fraught path ahead.
4Q Fundraising
- MT-Sen: Jon Tester (D-inc): $5.5 million raised; Tim Sheehy (R): $2.05 million raised, additional $450,000 self-funded, $1.3 million cash on hand
- NJ-Sen: Christine Serrano Glassner (R): $67,000 raised, additional $200,000 self-funded
- PA-12: Summer Lee (D-inc): $1 million raised, $1.15 million cash on hand; Bhavini Patel (D): $310,000 raised
Senate
● MI-Sen: Rep. Elissa Slotkin has earned an endorsement from a third House colleague, Dan Kildee, ahead of the Aug. 6 Democratic primary. Previously, Reps. Haley Stevens and Hillary Scholten gave Slotkin their backing.
● OH-Sen: Rep. Max Miller has averted what could have been an uncomfortable family gathering by endorsing his father-in-law, rich guy Bernie Moreno, in the March 19 Republican primary.
Governors
● DE-Gov & Wilmington, DE Mayor: National Wildlife Federation head Collin O'Mara said this week he'll make up his mind in the "coming weeks" about joining the Sept. 10 Democratic primary for Delaware's open governorship, though his decision to loan his campaign $750,000 indicates which way he's leaning. O'Mara, who raised another $123,000 from donors, says he has $870,000 in the bank for a potential race to succeed Democratic Gov. John Carney, who is termed out.
Carney himself expressed interest in running in October in running to replace retiring Wilmington Mayor Mike Purzycki, and he said this week he was getting "closer to launching a mayoral campaign." The governor's fundraising also indicates he's serious about leading Delaware's largest city: Carney took in $111,000 during the final two months of last year, which is more than twice as much as would-be primary rival Velda Potter-Jones brought in during 2023.
House
● CA-47: Activist Joanna Weiss is airing the first negative ad of the March 5 top-two primary, highlighting state Sen. Dave Min's May drunk driving arrest. The narrator begins, though, by arguing that Min, who like Weiss is a Democrat, "broke his no-corporate money promise."
Only then does the spot show dashcam footage of Min swaying back and forth as he talks to a police officer, with the narrator saying he "drove drunk, lied to the police, and endangered innocent lives." The rest of the ad is devoted to saying that Weiss can be relied on to stand up for progressive values. Both candidates are competing to succeed Senate candidate Katie Porter, who supports Min, in this competitive Orange County constituency.
● CO-05: Former Secretary of State Wayne Williams, per Colorado Politics, says he will decide by the end of January whether he'll campaign to succeed retiring Rep. Doug Lamborn, a fellow Republican. Williams lost reelection to Democrat Jena Griswold in 2018, and while he revived his career the following year by winning a seat on the Colorado Springs City Council, his 2023 bid for mayor ended in a 58-42 defeat against independent Yemi Mobolade.
● LA-05: Rep. Garret Graves, who currently represents Louisiana's 6th District, tells Politico's Anthony Adragna that he's unlikely to wage an intra-party battle against his House colleague and fellow Republican, Rep. Julie Letlow, in the revamped 5th District.
"That certainly would be a bit awkward scenario," said the congressman, "but I don’t envision it ever coming to that." Awkward is right: Adragna describes Letlow as Graves' "old mentee," while Graves says he's contributed the maximum amount to her reelection effort.
But Graves once again expressed optimism that the courts would reject the new congressional map that turned his 6th District into a seat that would have favored Joe Biden 59-39, though he didn't say whether he'd try to make that happen himself. If Graves doesn't get his wish, though, he may not have an opening to return for the 119th Congress unless he switches course and takes on Letlow.
As new data from Daily Kos Elections shows, 43% of Graves' current constituency is in the new 5th, while another 26% went to the revamped 6th, which is now solidly blue. The balance is spread fairly evenly across three other districts, which means that Graves wouldn't have much of a base of support if he ran elsewhere.
● NJ-03: Assemblyman Wayne DeAngelo said Thursday that he's unlikely to run to succeed his fellow Democrat, Senate candidate Andy Kim, though the New Jersey Globe notes he "refused to close the door completely." Still, DeAngelo was pessimistic about his prospects, telling the site, "I just don’t see the pathway for me."
● NY-16: The hawkish pro-Israel group AIPAC on Thursday endorsed Westchester County Executive George Latimer's bid to deny renomination to Rep. Jamaal Bowman in New York's June 25 Democratic primary. The development is no surprise, as Jewish Insider reported all the way back in August that the well-funded organization, which was one of the biggest spenders in Democratic primaries nationwide last cycle, was recruiting Latimer to run for the safely blue 16th District.
● OH-09: Speaker Mike Johnson has endorsed state Rep. Derek Merrin in the March 19 Republican primary to take on Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur. Politico reported late last year that Johnson waged a "heavy last-ditch recruitment effort" to enlist Merrin after the previous establishment favorite, former state Rep. Craig Riedel, self-immolated by daring to criticize Donald Trump. Merrin still needs to get past Riedel, Napoleon Mayor Steve Lankenau, and J.R. Majewski, the party's disastrous 2022 nominee.
● OR-05: Tech executive Matthew Davie has filed FEC paperwork to raise money to run as a Democrat against freshman Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer, a Republican who is defending a constituency that Joe Biden carried 53-44. Davie does not appear to have announced yet that he'll join the May 21 primary. Davie, writes the Oregon Capital Chronicle, is a former executive at a microfinance company in San Francisco who bought a home in the 5th District in 2018. The story adds that he has not previously been active in local politics in the Bend area.
● PA-17: Jeremy Shaffer, who was the GOP's 2022 nominee for this seat, announced this week that he would run for the state House rather than seek a rematch against freshman Democratic Rep. Chris Deluzio. The person Shaffer wants to replace in the legislature, state Rep. Rob Mercuri, is already running against Deluzio and faces no serious opposition in the Republican primary.
● SC-06: Democratic Rep. Jim Clyburn announced Wednesday evening that he would seek reelection to South Carolina's safely blue 6th District, which he first won in 1992. Clyburn stepped down as the number-three member of the Democratic leadership following the 2022 elections, though he continues to serve as assistant minority leader.
Clyburn is the final member of the old leadership trio to confirm they'll be running for another term. Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi ended speculation about her own plans in September, while former Majority Leader Steny Hoyer said earlier this month that he'd run again for his seat in Maryland.
Grab Bag
● Polls: FiveThirtyEight has released a major new update to its pollster ratings that includes an important new component: an assessment of each outfit's transparency. As the site's chief, G. Elliot Morris, explains in a new thread, his team combed through thousands of press releases to determine whether every poll was accompanied by critical information, like whether it was conducted for a particular client, or whether the release included exact question-wording.
These evaluations are combined with an appraisal of each pollster's accuracy to produce an overall rating (from zero to three stars), though you can also see how each shop measures up on each component individually. FiveThirtyEight has also published a detailed explanation of the methodology it uses for all aspects of its ratings system.
Ad Roundup
Campaign Action
