Had this district existed in 2020, it would have been the closest district going by Presidential results. President Biden would have defeated former President Trump by a miniscule 0.1%, or approximately 350 votes, give or take a dozen. The independent redistricting commission in Arizona is supposed to value districts that are competitive, and they rarely are more competitive than this district! It was a close race in 2022, but Juan Ciscomani was narrowly able to defeat Kirsten Engel to flip this district.
Engel is back for a rematch in 2024! If you aren’t familiar with her, here is an introductory video giving some background and campaign themes.
Juan Ciscomani was almost a total blank slate running in 2022. He didn’t have a record beyond being a staffer for former Gov. Doug Ducey in Arizona. Now, Ciscomani has a record, and it isn’t pretty. Instead of being a “moderate”, he has supported the MAGA agenda time and time again. This district will likely be very close once again in 2024. While the primary election won’t happen until early August, both Ciscomani and Engel are the clear frontrunners to win and face off again in November. Question is, can Kirsten Engel flip this district for the Democratic Party?
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Kirsten Engel for Arizona-6
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What’s the Big Idea?
THIS RACE IS A TOSSUP, with an R+3 PVI
There has been a swingy district focused on the Tucson metro area for quite a while now. The incumbents from both parties tend to be moderate in nature, although this isn’t always the case. With the district so finely balanced, it is likely that the candidate closer to the center of the political spectrum will win once again.
This is the district that sent Democratic Rep. Gabby Giffords to Congress in 2006, while also sending GOP Rep. Martha McSally starting in 2014. Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick won it starting in 2018. All of the prior incumbents tended to be more moderate than the norm inside their respective political party.
Joe Biden won this district 49.3% to 49.2% in 2020, which was the closest presidential result in the nation. That means both Democrats and Republicans have a good chance of winning this particular district. That proved to be true in 2022, when Rep. Juan Ciscomani massively outspent Kirsten Engel only to win this seat by a 50.7% to 49.3% result, or a little more than 5000 votes. If Biden carries this district again, Engel has a chance. If Trump wins it, Ciscomani will win again.
Here’s where this race will be won in the 6th district.
- Tucson Metro Area: There is only one main source of Democratic votes in the district, and that is the portion of the eastern and northern Tucson metro area. The voters that reside under these lines tend to be more swingy and just started to vote Democratic down the ballot. Engel’s base is here, and she must convince every possible voter to turnout from this area.
Here’s where we need to keep the margins down, or we lose.
- Pinal County: This rapidly growing county is found between the Phoenix and Tucson metro areas, as commuters are looking for cheap housing and a chance to work in either area. There are some blue precincts found in this county, but the majority of them are beet red. Engel may not be a good fit for the denizens here, so she needs to persuade who she can to vote for her.
- Southeastern Arizona: These areas tend to support rugged individualists, which means that Engel will be at a severe disadvantage in these portions of the district. The bases at Sierra Vista cannot be ignored, and the rest of the area is almost hopelessly red in nature.
Who is Kirsten Engel?
Engel clerked for a judge on the 8th Circuit Court, and then worked for the EPA. She was a lawyer working for Earthjustice, which is dedicated to working on environmental issues. She moved to Arizona and became a professor at the University of Arizona law school. She ran for the Arizona state legislature in 2016, at first starting out in the state house and then winning a state senate seat in 2020. She currently is not in any elected office.
- Climate Crisis. This would be Engel’s signature issue if she makes it to Congress. It is the most important priority for her. She is a huge proponent of solar energy, which given the climate should be able to power Arizona indefinitely. She also urges the government to crack down on polluting power plants across the nation. The League of Conservation Voters and the Sierra Club have endorsed her campaign.
- Education Advocate. Engel is for an increase of funding for public schools. She is also against the book bans and other Moms for Liberty type legislation that is being pushed by governors such as Ron DeSantis. She decided to run for political office after seeing what conditions were like in her daughter’s public school. The National Education Association has endorsed her.
- Mental Health Awareness. It is refreshing to see a candidate talk about mental health on the campaign trail. Engel would fix the scary statistics of police encounters with those who have a mental health crisis by increasing funds so that trained professionals respond to those types of calls in conjunction with the police. She’d also call for insurance parity for mental health services.
- Abortion Protector. Engel is a vote to codify Roe v. Wade into the law of the land. She would also be a vote against a national abortion ban and a contraception ban as proposed by MAGA Republicans. She has been endorsed by Reproductive Freedom for All and Emily’s List, both of which support candidates with a strong record on abortion rights. She recently weighed in on the salience of this issue on NPR.
- Western Water Crisis. The politics of water out west is always a dangerous topic to wade into, but it is another issue where Engel has the background to make a difference. She worked on the Colorado Drought Contingency Plan while in the state legislature, and she has many proposals to help encourage better management of scarce water resources in the western US.
- Gun Safety Champion. Engel would champion common sense gun safety measures if she is elected to Congress. Her website issues page says she is in favor of red flag laws, enhanced background checks, and closing of the gun show loophole. She even wants to ban assault weapons. Giffords PAC has endorsed her challenge.
- Protection of Social Security and Medicare. Engel is running against Speaker MAGA Mike Johnson’s plans to slash Social Security and Medicare. She is willing to expand both programs, but doesn’t go into details on how she would accomplish that. She does support Medicare negotiating prescription drug prices with the drug manufacturers for example.
- Union Strong. Engel has been endorsed by some local unions, which indicates her record on these issues will be strong. “Kirsten has been a fierce voice for workers while in the legislature and will continue making AZ's working families a key part of her campaign for Congress. We need more people like Kirsten in Congress and the UFCW will help her get there.”
- Defending Democracy. She will work to get money out of politics, as well as support the John Lewis VRA while in Congress. Her stance is that politicians should work for the voters and not those who run Super PACs. While she doesn’t emphasize these issues on her campaign website, End Citizens United and Let America Vote have both endorsed her campaign.
- Immigration Reform. Her rhetoric on this issue is the biggest sign she shifted rightwards between campaigns. Her issues page on her campaign website is all about securing the border, while before it was all about reforming the asylum process and supporting making the DACA program permanent. She still supports the latter causes, but she is soft-pedaling them this time around.
Who is Rep. Juan Ciscomani?
Juan Ciscomani has been working for politicians behind the scenes for a while now. He actually started his career working for Democrats, including Rep. Ed Pastor and Rep. Loretta Sanchez. Obviously, he didn’t stick around in our party, eventually working for the Gov. Doug Ducey administration as a senior advisor and through the Arizona-Mexico Commission. Finally, he was prominent in the Tucson Hispanic Chamber of Commerce before running for political office. He delivered the GOP response to the State of the Union address in Spanish in 2023.
- Forced Birth Maniac. Ciscomani is against abortion, but also claims to be against the draconian Arizona abortion law that went into effect when Dobbs was handed down. He claims to be against a national abortion ban, but his votes do not match his rhetoric, as evidenced by him voting against ensuring mifepristone was accessible to everyone in the United States.
- Immigration Hardliner. Ciscomani claims to be moderate on immigration reform, supporting DACA and “being open to immigration reform”. However, his campaign website is filled with rhetoric about securing the border such as building the wall, deploying more boots on the ground, and more. He voted for the hellacious HR2, a very restrictive immigration bill.
- 2nd Amendment Zealot. Ciscomani, in his own words, will “fight against any infringement on an individual’s constitutional right to keep and bear arms.” He has voted against gun safety measures every time it has come up in the 118th Congress. I don’t have an NRA grade for him, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it wasn’t an “A” grade at least.
- ”Election Integrity”. Ciscomani may or may not be an election denier, but his rhetoric sure sounds like he doesn’t believe Biden won the 2020 election. His campaign website reads: “Right now, Washington wants to federalize elections in a takeover that would undermine state voting ID laws, automatically register ineligible voters, and even use taxpayer money to fund campaign attack ads.”
- Silent on Trump. Ciscomani has been totally silent on the many indictments of former President Trump. While that is an improvement over spouting “witch hunt” and “Deep State” rhetoric, it still shows that Ciscomani is a coward and will not stand up against Trump when it matters most. He’s no better than a MAGA Republican when it comes to Dear Leader.
- Speaker Debacle. Like every other GOP member of Congress, Ciscomani voted for Speaker MAGA Mike Johnson. To make matters worse, he voted for Gym Jordan ALL THREE times on votes for the Speaker race. That means Ciscomani endorses the extreme views of both politicians, and would likely vote in lockstep with their agenda.
- Debt and Deficit Peacock. On his campaign website, Ciscomani calls for a balanced budget, which would only work if the government is basically shut down or there are significant tax increases. He calls for lower taxes, so that means voting for garbage bills such as this one before the government shutdown. TO his credit, he did vote for the clean 45 day CR and the laddered CR. He opposes deficit reduction measures that actually work, such as the Inflation Reduction Act.
- Climate Crisis Madness. Ciscomani voted to repeal most of the Inflation Reduction Act, which is the biggest piece of climate change legislation so far. He is friendly with Big Oil, and his website states that we must reach energy independence without giving any specifics. He tries to hide his fealty to fossil fuel interests by supporting bills like this one.
How Can You Help?
Tucson, Arizona is the metro area where most of the people of this district live. If you don’t live in this area, the top way to help Kirsten Engel out is to make a donation to her campaign. It doesn’t have to be a HUGE donation, every penny helps the campaign out! This will likely be an expensive race, with Biden contesting Arizona and a heated Senate race at the same time.
Kirsten Engel and Rep. Juan Ciscomani were basically at parity when it came to what they raised in Q3. Engel raised about $420k, while Ciscomani raised slightly more, banking $429k. It is clear that both campaigns haven’t kicked it into high gear with their fundraising as of yet. It is cash on hand that Ciscomani dominates, holding a $1.84M to $640k edge over Engel. Engel needs to narrow the gap, so send her a donation quick!
If you live in the Tucson metro area or southeastern Arizona, your best bet for helping out Kirsten Engel is volunteering for her campaign. Looking through her social media, it appears she is hitting the listening tour/events circuit pretty thoroughly right now. That doesn’t mean that volunteers aren’t needed! There’s text banking. canvassing, and many other tasks to do. I remember the brutal summer heat… I’d rather volunteer when the weather is amazing than when it is over 110 degrees!
A third way you can help the campaign out is by amplifying their messaging on social media. Engel has been shifting between promoting her op-eds on issues, showing which events she is attending, and attacking Rep. Ciscomani. Her attacks on the incumbent are “Another Ciscomani MAGA Moment”, which aims to show how extreme her opponent truly is on his record.
Engel currently has 7.3k followers on what was once Twitter, which is a decent start. However, given that she ran a campaign for this seat in 2022, it is kind of a disappointing amount. She risks not being able to raise enough funds or get her message out with so few followers. Please help her out by following her and reposting her important tweets. Here’s another Ciscomani MAGA Moment…
Engel has 3.5k followers on the social media platform Facebook, which is more inline with what I have seen other challengers have on their Facebook accounts. The information on both Twitter and Facebook is not exactly the same, so it is worth following her on both platforms to get the whole picture of her campaign. Here is an interview she did with Molly Jong-Fast back in October 2023.
Help spread the word today by following Kirsten Engel and boosting her campaign in the critical realm of social media!
I think Kirsten Engel has learned from her last campaign. She was a little too progressive in her rhetoric (likely to win the contested primary election) and it may have cost her the chance to win in 2022. This time around, she is campaigning more as a moderate while still sounding some progressive notes on key issues. This will likely re-assure the voters in the Tucson suburbs — without which she cannot win this district. She has been endorsed by the New Democratic Coalition, which is another sign she is running as a more moderate candidate this time around.
Rep. Juan Ciscomani has shown few hints of being a “moderate” in the GOP. He has consistently voted for the MAGA agenda no matter what bill is put before him. He is out of step with a district that tends to elect moderates of both parties. It will be a race to the middle in this district, and this time Ciscomani has a voting record to dissect. Ciscomani is the 17th most vulnerable Republican according to Daily Kos, meaning he’ll be tough to defeat. Question is, does Kirsten Engel have what it takes to flip this district?
Kirsten Engel for Arizona-6
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