The Biden campaign has been making an explicit effort to troll Donald Trump into a frenzy by doing things he despises, like calling him "a loser" of the 2020 election.
But in truth, nothing President Joe Biden has done to date has proven more soul-crushing to Trump than the stock market's recent surges to record heights. It is driving Trump bonkers, so much so that he is trying to claim credit for Biden's market with the most ludicrously dimwitted rationale possible.
“THIS IS THE TRUMP STOCK MARKET,” Trump wrote in all-caps on Truth Social, “BECAUSE MY POLLS AGAINST BIDEN ARE SO GOOD THAT INVESTORS ARE PROJECTING THAT I WILL WIN, AND THAT WILL DRIVE THE MARKET UP.”
Oh yes, Donald: Investors making hourly split-second decisions about buying and selling are already salivating over a potential Trump victory 10 months from now, because his win record at the ballot box is so stellar.
While most presidents have little control over the fluctuations of the markets, Biden can legitimately take partial credit for market gains after he implemented post-pandemic economic policies that helped put the U.S. economy back on solid footing.
But it's also worth remembering that roughly 60% of Americans have money invested in the stock market right through individual stocks, mutual funds, 401(k)s, or IRAs, according to a 2023 Gallup survey.
And even fewer Americans gauge their own financial situation based on the stock market. As recent Navigator Research polling shows, just 15% of voters look to the stock market as an economic touchpoint, whereas most voters assess the state of the economy by these top five indicators:
Americans' view of the economy is still very underwater— 25% positive, 73% negative— but they have proven to be more bullish about their personal finances.
A recent Axios "vibes" survey found 63% of voters called their current financial outlook "good" or "very good."
The Navigator survey tested how "confident" voters feel about their personal financial situation, and the results didn't test as positive, with about a third of voters identifying as "confident" while nearly two-thirds felt "uneasy."
But importantly, independents have been moving in a positive direction on the question since last November.
"Since early November, Americans have grown slightly more confident about their personal financial situation (net -29 confident today, up from net -34 in November)," writes Navigator. "This improvement is driven by independents (net -35 confident today, up from net -53)."
That's a nearly 20-point shift for the better among independents.
Voters' perception of the economy is similarly improving, even though it isn't exactly where Democrats would hope. Civiqs tracking of whether the national economy is getting better or worse shows 29% say it's "getting better" while 52% say it's "getting worse." But the "better" side is trending consistently up while the "worse" side is dropping, putting perceptions at net -23 better. It doesn't sound all that great until one considers that it's the best the economy has tested on the question since August 2021.
Ultimately, the campaign Biden might not have to win the argument on the current economy to win the election. Fighting Trump to a draw on the economy might be good enough, as former GOP Congressman David Jolly noted on the most recent "Talking Feds" podcast with host Harry Litman.
If gettable voters feel roughly as good about a Biden economy as they do about a Trump economy, then they will be ripe for the Biden campaign to destroy Trump on his assault on freedoms, democracy, and the rule of law.
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