When running for public office, introducing yourself to potential voters is one of the most important tasks. Leaving a positive impression before the inevitable barrage of negative ads comes your way is difficult, but it can be done. Our candidate for Montana’s 1st district, Monica Tranel, did an excellent job at this task in 2022 with her introductory ad.
Tranel worked super hard in a difficult race to win in 2022, but she fell short. Now, she’s back and willing to put in the horsepower once again to flip Montana’s 1st district and eject corrupt Rep. Ryan Zinke from Congress. Question is, are you ready to do what it takes to support this workhorse in her efforts to get to Congress?
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Rep. Ryan Zinke is part of what I am calling the #MAGADozen. These Republicans in GOP leaning swing districts are full throated MAGA supporters and can be beaten. Monica Tranel is one of the challengers I hope to fundraise for.
Monica Tranel for Montana-1
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What’s the Big Idea?
THIS RACE LEANS REPUBLICAN, with an R+6 PVI
Montana regained a 2nd district after the 2020 US Census. The state used to have two districts between 1913 and 1993, but population growth elsewhere caused the state to lose that district in 1990 redistricting. Montana usually divided the state between the eastern and western geographical areas. The western part could elect Democratic candidates, while the eastern part favored the GOP.
Montana has had two Democratic senators as recently as 2014, but they have been shut out of representation in the House of Representatives since 1996. The only close calls for Republicans in Montana’s at-large district occurred in 2000, 2018, and 2022. All three times featured open seats due to the fact that the previous incumbents bailed on the district.
In 2020, Donald Trump won this district by a comfortable 52.2% to 45.3%. Yet the right kind of Democratic candidate can still win here. Rep. Ryan Zinke only won this seat 49.6% to 46.5% against Tranel in 2022. Her fate this time around depends on which brand is stronger in Montana — Trump or Tester. If Tester wins re-election, it will be through a strong showing in western Montana. That can assist Tranel in winning as well. But if Tester loses because Trump runs up the score, Tranel has less of a chance of pulling off a win.
Here’s where this race will be won in the 1st district.
- Missoula: This city is a college town, as it contains the University of Montana. This is a city that Monica Tranel needs to run up the score in order to offset other less favorable areas in the district. This includes the college students on campus.
- Butte and Bozeman: These two cities are also Democratic leaning, and Tranel will once again have to run up the score in both of them. Montana State is found in Bozeman, while the union and college vote is still strong in Butte.
- Reservations: The Flathead and Blackfoot tribes have reservations in the 1st district. The people there vote Democratic, and it is important to get their votes in a race that was separated by 8,000 votes last time. Tranel needs to ensure their voices are heard as well.
Here’s where we need to keep the margins down, or we lose.
- Northwestern Montana: Whitefish is favorable to us, but the rest of the area has plenty of conservative retirees. Kalispell is the center of northwestern Montana, and there has been an influx of voters from California and other blue states. Tranel will have to do better than Biden in order to win the district.
- Southwestern Montana: There are a lot of libertarian “don’t tread on me” types here. This area is also red, and it is likely that Zinke will rack up high margins in this part of the district. Tranel needs to recruit what votes are there and work extra hard to offset the rest of the votes coming from here.
Who is Monica Tranel?
Monica Tranel is your quintessential Montanan, moderate in style but with a bit of a populist streak thrown in for good measure. If she wins, she would likely be amongst the most moderate Democrats in the House of Representatives. It is more important that she represent the values of the district in question instead of checking every progressive box.
- Deep Montana Roots. Tranel grew up on a ranch, along with 9 other siblings. Her stellar work ethic came from doing the many chores around the ranch. It led her to be on a 4th place rowing team at the 1996 Olympics and also qualify for the 2000 Olympics. She will outwork Zinke for this district, and that is her huge asset.
- Lawyer for Main Street. After graduating with a Juris Doctor, Tranel could’ve practiced law anywhere. She purposely went back to Montana to represent the people against big corporations. She battled the powerful utility company and won. She has stopped land grabs from out of state corporations. She’d fight for Main Street instead of monopolies.
- Clean Energy Advocate. Tranel has advocated for clean energy solutions such as geothermal, wind, and solar power. She is also big on retrofitting buildings to help with the climate crisis by making them more energy efficient. She has been endorsed by the League of Conservation Voters for her environmental stances.
- Federal Land Management. Tranel is in favor of protecting federal lands instead of selling them to be despoiled for privatization purposes. She prefers to involve all stakeholders in the conversation about what to do with federal lands. That includes working on better management of the land to help prevent forest fires.
- Tribal Sovereignty. She would support measures to enforce the McGirt decision for tribal sovereignty made in 2020. There is a missing indigenous women crisis which rarely gets reported in the mainstream news, and Tranel will bring more attention to this issue. Finally, she would push for economic development and fairness in government for all Native Americans.
- Housing Crisis. Montana, like elsewhere, has an acute housing crisis due to wealthy patrons moving in and Airbnb and corporations buying houses. Tranel would change the tax code to remove incentives for corporations and shift them to regular people. She would also incentivize new starter homes instead of McMansions that are unaffordable to most.
- Protecting Abortion Rights. Tranel would be a vote to codify Roe v. Wade into law, as well as a vote against a national abortion ban and against a contraception ban. She has been endorsed by Emily’s List and Reproductive Freedom for All. She would also like to extend the Child Tax Credit that was active during the pandemic.
- Protecting Our Democracy. Tranel unequivocally supports people having the right to vote and disdains any attempts at voter suppression. She would be another vote for the John Lewis VRA, as well as other measures to combat the attack on our elections by MAGA Republicans. She has been endorsed by the Voter Protection Project.
- Consumer Protection Advocate. Tranel would work to pass the FAIR Act, which would end forced arbitration, which corporations take advantage of in special courts just for that purpose. She would also take on monopolistic corporations that are price gouging thanks to the pandemic.
- Union Strong. Tranel would support the PRO Act if she is elected to Congress. She values unions as the reason workers have rights, safety, dignity, and respect in the workplace. She has been endorsed by the Montana Federation of Public Employees.
Who is Rep. Ryan Zinke?
This is Rep. Ryan Zinke’s second stint in Congress. His first stint from 2015-2017 was cut short when Trump tapped him to head the Department of the Interior. In line with many Trump cabinet picks, he was a terrible fit for the position. He wound up having to resign from that role, and eventually went back to serving in the House of Representatives once again. He sat down with CSPAN to discuss his prior experience and priorities this time around in Washington, D.C.
- Dept. of Interior Scandals. Zinke was investigated for 18 different potential instances of laws being broken. This includes use of personal e-mail, omitting meetings with lobbyists from his calendar, a sweetheart Montana land deal, usage of charter flights, Hatch Act violations, lying about involvement in a Connecticut casino, and many more.
- Residency Issues. Zinke claims to own a home in Whitefish, MT. His wife owns a home in Santa Barbara, CA. According to his social media traffic, he spends the vast majority of his time at the Santa Barbara residence. This may have changed since he was elected, but it was a point of attack from multiple candidates — both Democratic and Republican.
- Expulsion of Palestinians. Zinke authored a bill that would bar Palestinians from entering the nation even if they had a valid passport. It would also expel all Palestinians who aren’t permanent residents of this country. That would include refugees and asylum seekers. This racist bill would likely be copycatted by Trump as part of his proposed Muslim ban.
- Shutdown Supporter. Zinke voted against the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023, better known as the debt limit deal. He also voted against the September continuing resolution to fund the government for 45 more days. He voted against the laddered CR in October as well.
- Forced Birth Maniac. Zinke has scrubbed all mentions of abortions from both his Congressional website and his campaign website. He cannot scrub what he said at a debate, however. He claims to be against a national abortion ban, but is against the practice in general. He claims to support abortions only if the health of the mother is in jeopardy.
- Birther Conspiracy Promoter. Zinke hosted a talk radio show in 2013, in which he frequently invited guests that were birther conspiracy theorists about President Obama. Zinke himself questioned whether Obama was a foreign national and demanded to see Obama’s college transcripts.
- Climate Change Flip Flopper. Believe it or not, Zinke used to be more moderate while in the Montana state senate. He accepted the consensus on climate change and even called for action to curb its effects! That changed when he ran for Congress, where he did a complete 180 on the issue. He is now a skeptic of the climate crisis and especially the fact that we are to blame.
- Friend of Fossil Fuels. Once he pivoted on the climate crisis, he became one of the staunchest allies of the fossil fuel interests. He helped Trump open up nearly ALL offshore waters to oil drilling. His pivot to thralldom to Big Oil came in 2012, when he sat on the board of an oil pipeline company. He shrank national monuments down to exploit their natural resources.
- “Woke Warrior”. Zinke is a fervent believer in there being a Deep State, which secretly controls the nation through “wokeness”. He has pushed for a radical new plan for the education system and he sees even governmental agencies such as DHS as “too woke” because it refuses (in his eyes) to build a wall on the border and close it.
- 2nd Amendment Zealot. Zinke has an A+ rating from the NRA. He has never supported a gun safety measure and is actively seeking to loosen gun laws and expand so-called 2nd amendment rights through the courts and legislation. This includes codifying concealed carry, blocking a national database, and much more abhorrent legislation.
How Can You Help?
If you don’t live in Big Sky Country, probably the easiest way to help Monica Tranel is through donating to her campaign. This race was rather expensive last time, and it is likely to be even more expensive with a contested Senate race at the same time.
In Q3, Tranel raised a grand total of $738k, which was one of the higher sums a non-incumbent raised. Problem is, Rep. Ryan Zinke outraised her, banking $1.17M in the same time period. Their cash on hand totals also point to Zinke having more resources. Tranel has $608k to spend, while Zinke still has $1.72M to burn through. Quite the disparity, which is why Monica Tranel needs some donations rushed to her.
If you live in western Montana, please consider volunteering for her campaign. The campaign is currently embarked on a listening tour of the district. It is likely that canvassing will start up when the weather is warmer. There are always plenty of tasks to do for a campaign, even at this early stage. Text banking for campaign contributions is a likely use for your time right now.
A third option could be boosting her message on social media. Her campaign accounts are full of listening tour stops and barbed attacks on Zinke. She also touts her own policies on occasion, especially if they land as a story in the local media.
She currently has 6.4k followers on what was once Twitter, which is a start. However, we could definitely grow that number for her. This tweet contains her favorite stop on her listening tour.
Tranel has around 2k followers on Facebook, which again is a good start but it could be better. As far as I could tell, the same content on Twitter is on Facebook as well. I’ll give you another peek at her listening tour.
Help spread the word today by following Monica Tranel and boosting her campaign in the critical realm of social media!
Monica Tranel is the right candidate for the western parts of Montana. Her service to the state as an environmental attorney has been invaluable, possibly saving $10M and maybe even more through a lawsuit against the utility monopoly. Her moderate stances sprinkled with a dash of populism play well in a state like Montana. Tranel will hope that Tester romps in this district and she can tie herself closely to the incumbent senator.
Rep. Ryan Zinke will definitely try to hitch his wagon to Trump. Even a damaged Trump is likely to win this district in 2024, meaning if Zinke matches him he should win again. However, Zinke is not the best incumbent to defend this seat thanks to many issues I have documented above. It is quite possible that Zinke underperforms the lean of the district once again. That is why Tranel has an opening to win this particular race!
Monica Tranel for Montana-1
DONATE | Volunteer | Website | Facebook | Twitter | Instagram
Here is the Defeat the MAGA Dozen Fund on ActBlue! These 12 incumbent members of the GOP are MAGA Republicans residing in swing districts. The challengers are all strong and can win in these tougher districts. Please donate and then share a link to this site on your social media! #MAGADozen