Morning Digest: Why Tennessee might be McCarthy's first stop on his 'revenge tour'

Tennessee's 2nd Congressional District Rep. Tim Burchett (R)

_{The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.}

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Leading Off

● TN-02: Former state Rep. Jimmy Matlock has expressed interest in waging a rematch against Rep. Tim Burchett in this summer's GOP primary, but quite a lot has changed since Burchett decisively beat him in their 2018 showdown.

It's not just that the congressman was one of only eight Republicans who voted to terminate Kevin McCarthy's speakership in October. Burchett rendered himself even more of a pariah just two months later when he hurled some jaw-dropping—but evidence-free—insinuations at his colleagues involving claims of sex tapes.

Check out our piece on how Burchett's conflict with McCarthy—both parliamentary and physical—could jeopardize his future. Plus, find out what we know about the Know Nothing Party and this East Tennessee district.

4Q Fundraising

• AZ-Sen: Ruben Gallego (D): $3.3 million raised, $6.5 million cash on hand; Kari Lake (R): $2.1 million raised
• NJ-Sen: Tammy Murphy (D): $3.2 million raised (in six weeks, no self-funding), $2.7 million cash on hand
• NV-Sen: Sam Brown (R): $1.85 million raised
• AZ-06: Juan Ciscomani (R-inc): $540,000 raised, $2.1 million cash on hand
• CA-47: Scott Baugh (R): $420,000 raised, $1.7 million cash on hand
• NY-17: Mike Lawler (R-inc): $700,000 raised, $2.5 million cash on hand
• NY-18: Pat Ryan (D-inc): $750,000 raised, $2.2 million cash on hand
• OR-06: Andrea Salinas (D-inc): $500,000 raised, $1.1 million cash on hand

Senate

● NV-Sen, PA-Sen: The progressive group Future Majority has publicized a pair of early December polls from Change Research that give two vulnerable Democratic senators small leads against their likely general election foes. Nevada Sen. Jacky Rosen edges out Army veteran Sam Brown 39-38, while Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey holds a 44-41 advantage over rich guy Dave McCormick. The samples favor Donald Trump over Joe Biden 44-40 and 46-40, respectively.

● OH-Sen: Former Speaker-designate Jim Jordan is the latest far-right Republican to back rich guy Bernie Moreno in the March 19 primary to face Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown.

Governors

● NC-Gov: The Democratic firm Public Policy Polling finds far-right Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson lapping rich guy Bill Graham 55-15 ahead of the March 5 Republican primary, with state Treasurer Dale Folwell taking just 7%. This is the first survey we've seen in the new year, though every other released survey has also shown Robinson far ahead.

House

● AL-02: Former NFL defensive end Wallace Gilberry has dropped out of the March 5 Republican primary for this revamped constituency.

● CA-16: Democratic Assemblyman Evan Low publicized an endorsement from Sen. Laphonza Butler on Monday for the busy March 5 top-two primary for this safely blue seat. Butler, whose appointment made her the first Black lesbian to serve in the upper chamber, highlighted how Low would also make history as "the first openly LGBTQ+ and Chinese American member of Congress from Silicon Valley."

● CA-20: Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom on Monday set the special primary to replace former GOP Rep. Kevin McCarthy for March 19, which is two weeks after the March 5 top-two primary for a full term. All the candidates will compete on the same ballot, and the two with the most votes, regardless of party, would advance to a May 21 if no one earns a majority in the first round. (Unlike in California's regular primaries, candidates in special elections can avert a second round by taking more than 50%.)

The filing deadline is Jan. 25, but the lineup is likely to look similar to the field of candidates running for a full term. That roster is still in flux, though, due to an ongoing legal dispute between McCarthy's preferred successor, Assemblyman Vince Fong, and Secretary of State Shirley Weber, who says Fong cannot both run for reelection and for Congress at the same time.

● CO-04: Police in western Colorado responded to an alleged confrontation Saturday between Rep. Lauren Boebert and her ex-husband, Jayson Boebert. "This is a sad situation for all that keeps escalating and another reason I’m moving," said the 3rd District congresswoman, who is running for the open 4th on the other side of the state, in a statement. "I didn’t punch Jayson in the face and no one was arrested. I will be consulting with my lawyer about the false claims he made against me and evaluate all of my legal options."

● CO-05: State GOP chair Dave Williams on Monday became the first major candidate to announce a campaign to replace retiring Republican Rep. Doug Lamborn. Williams, an election conspiracy theorist and former state representative who lost the 2022 primary to Lamborn 47-33, sent out his launch email through the party's official email account and says he plans to keep his position as chair despite his bid.

Williams, though, will almost certainly have competition in the June 25 primary for this 53-43 Trump seat. Karl Schneider, who is an executive at what Colorado Politics' Ernest Luning describes as a "defense industry cybersecurity" company, said Friday he was forming an exploratory committee. Schneider is also a former vice chair in the state GOP.

Several more Republicans tell Luning or 9News' Marshall Zelinger that they're considering:

• 2022 Senate candidate Eli Bremer
• Conservative radio host Jeff Crank
• State Sen. Bob Gardner
• State Senate Minority Leader Paul Lundeen
• Former Lamborn aide Cassandra Sebastian
• El Paso County Commissioner Stan VanderWerf
• Former El Paso County Commissioner Mark Waller
• Former Secretary of State Wayne Williams

Crank, who lost to Lamborn in 2006 and 2008, said Friday he would make up his mind in the following "eight to 10 days," while Luning writes that Sebastian "said she planned to decide soon." Waller, meanwhile, indicated he'd defer to Crank or Gardner.

Wayne Williams, for his part, is not related to Dave Williams. The former secretary of state lost last year's nonpartisan race for mayor of Colorado Springs in a wide 57-43 upset against Yemi Mobolade, an independent.

Both Luning and Zelinger also mention many more Republicans as possibilities:

• Former state Rep. Terri Carver
• Former state Rep. Tim Geitner
• El Paso County Commissioner Carrie Geitner
• 2018 candidate Darryl Glenn
• El Paso County Commissioner Longinos Gonzalez
• Former state Rep. Dan Nordberg
• Assistant House Minority Leader Rose Pugliese
• El Paso County Republican Party Chair Vickie Tonkins
• El Paso County Republican Party Vice Chair Todd Watkins

A few Republicans quickly said they wouldn't run, however, including former Colorado Springs Mayor John Suthers, former state Sen. Dennis Hisey, and state Rep. Don Wilson. A spokesperson for Rep. Lauren Boebert, who decided last month to give up the 3rd District to seek the 4th, also confirmed she wouldn't jump into the 5th.

● IN-05: GOP Rep. Victoria Spartz downplayed talk over the weekend that she might reverse course and run for reelection, though the still-retiring congresswoman once again declined to rule out the idea. "[U]nless I guess I get very upset with my Republicans, I would like to take some time off to get my sanity back, you know, and get my energy back," she told Indy Politics' podcast (the relevant portion is at the 13:40 mark), adding, "As of right now, I'm still thinking [I want to] take time off."

● IN-08: Republican Rep. Larry Bucshon on Monday became the third House Republican to retire in the new year, bringing to a close a career that began when he was swept in on the tea party wave of 2010.

But local politics were quite different when Buchson first campaigned for what was nicknamed "The Bloody 8th" for its history of regularly ousting incumbents. Bucshon, a physician who never had sought elected office before, even began the race as the underdog and had to struggle to beat back a primary challenge from the right.

Check out Jeff Singer's piece on how a shock Democratic retirement would transform this race, as well as Bucshon's initial struggle to hold his new seat.

● Kentucky: Candidate filing closed Friday for Kentucky's May 21 primary, and the state has a list of contenders here.

Don't expect much action in the Bluegrass State's congressional races this year, though. Each member of the state's six-member House delegation is seeking reelection, and none of them appear to have any serious intraparty opposition. The general elections should also be uneventful, as Republicans passed a gerrymandered map last cycle to lock in their current 5-1 GOP advantage.

● MN-03: Secretary of State Steve Simon tells KSTP that he won't run to replace outgoing Rep. Dean Philips, a fellow Democrat. The two major Democrats currently in the running for this suburban Twin Cities constituency are DNC member Ron Harris and state Sen. Kelly Morrison.

● MO-02: Republican Rep. Ann Wagner announced Monday that she would seek reelection, a move that came after the local political tip-sheet Missouri Scout relayed chatter she could retire. "I hesitate to call this even a rumor," wrote author Dave Drebes, who said that the "speculation" was nevertheless prompting some unnamed candidates who could have plausibly run either for Wagner's 2nd District or the open 3rd to "keep[] their powder dry for now before making a final decision about 2024."

Those candidates, though, now have their answer with more than two months to go before the March 26 filing deadline. The 2nd District backed Donald Trump 53-45 in 2020.

● MO-03: The Missouri Scout's Dave Drebes reports that Republican state Sen. Tony Luetkemeyer is considering running to replace his cousin "of some indeterminate distance," retiring Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer. Attorney Mark McCloskey, meanwhile, says he's also interested in pursuing this safely red seat, though he's unlikely to scare off anyone after grabbing just 3% in the 2020 primary for Senate.

Drebes, finally, writes that state Sen. Nick Schroer would sit out the race if former Bob Onder, whom Schroer recently described as a "mentor," runs himself.

● NC-14: GOPAC released a mid-December poll from Differentiators Data just before Christmas that showed its endorsed candidate, state House Speaker Tim Moore, leading perennial candidate Jeff Gregory by a huge 49-6 margin in the March 5 Republican primary. Moore already looked like the favorite to replace Rep. Jeff Jackson, a Democrat who launched a bid for attorney general after the legislature aggressively gerrymandered his district.

● NY-03: Inside Elections' Jacob Rubashkin has obtained a copy of the ad the NRCC began running with Mazi Pilip, a $100,000 coordinated buy that appears to be the GOP's first TV spot of the Feb. 13 special election. (Party committees are limited to spending $59,000 in most House races when they coordinate with candidates but can spend unlimited sums as "independent expenditures" as long as they do not consult with campaigns.)

The ad's narrator insists that former Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi, a longtime moderate who wants to reclaim his seat, "asked to join the socialist Squad, and AOC said, 'you're in.'" The spot goes on to attack Suozzi's time as Nassau County executive.

The ad references Suozzi's response to Donald Trump's racist tweets in 2019 targeting the four women of color who had been dubbed "the Squad" by telling CNN, "I don't agree with all the politics of the squad … But, today, I want to be an honorary member of the squad because I want to fight against this un-American, racist type of behavior."

Rep. Alexandria Occasio-Cortez, who represents the 14th District in New York City, responded to this expression of solidarity by tweeting, "You’re in." Suozzi, though, remained an ardent centrist during his remaining three years in Congress, and he told Jewish Insider last month that he'd be a counterweight to more leftist members of the caucus.

● PA-12: Laurie MacDonald, who runs a local organization called the Center for Victims, announced Monday that she would challenge freshman Rep. Summer Lee in the April 23 Democratic primary. Lee already faces intra-party opposition from Edgewood Borough Council member Bhavini Patel in this reliably blue Pittsburgh-based seat.

MacDonald, however, brings some baggage with her. In 2020, WPXI-TV reported that several current and former employees accused her and other senior officials at her nonprofit of hurling bigoted insults, with one former staffer saying, "It became more of a toxic situation, more of a racist situation." MacDonald denied the allegations as "unsupported by any evidence and appear to be designed to damage the Center and inhibit its ability to serve its clients."

MacDonald reacted to the news of Donald Trump nominating Amy Coney Barrett to replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg on the Supreme Court later that year with a LinkedIn post saying, "Wow. I am so proud to see this brilliant young woman has received this incredible, well deserved honor."

Mayors and County Leaders

● Cobb County, GA Board of Commissioners: A state court ruled Monday that the Democratic majority on the Cobb County Board of Commissioners does not have the authority to amend the gerrymandered map the GOP-dominated legislature passed last cycle. A spokesperson for the county quickly announced that it would appeal the decision.

Democrats in 2020 ended the GOP's 36-year majority on the five-member body that runs this populous suburban Atlanta community, but Republicans sought to exact revenge soon after. The legislature approved a map that moved Democratic Commissioner Jerica Richardson's home out of her constituency, which some legal experts have argued could force her out of office even before her term is up due to the state's residency requirements.

The commission responded by approving its own set of boundaries that would keep Richardson where she is, but the court said the board doesn't have the power to pass an amended map. The county, though, says that Richardson will be able to keep serving as its appeal works its way through the courts.

Richardson launched a bid for the U.S. House in September when it looked like the Atlanta area might gain a new Democratic seat, but she hasn't said what she'll do now that a federal judge has approved a new map designed to keep the GOP's 9-5 advantage intact.

Prosecutors and Sheriffs

● Cook County, IL State's Attorney: Chicago-area Rep. Robin Kelly has endorsed Clayton Harris, an attorney who already had the support of the Cook County Democratic Party and Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle, in the March 19 party primary. Harris faces former Illinois Appellate Court Justice Eileen O'Neill Burke in the Democratic primary to replace retiring incumbent Kim Foxx as the top prosecutor for America's second-most populous county.