The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.
Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast
Leading Off
● OR-06: Republican Mike Erickson on Wednesday announced his long-anticipated campaign to avenge his narrow 2022 loss to freshman Democratic Rep. Andrea Salinas, but he's not ready to move on from last cycle's battle.
Erickson is still suing Salinas for defamation over a commercial she ran highlighting his 2016 arrest and conviction for drunk driving. That spot declared that the Republican was "charged with illegal drug possession for illegal oxycodone," a statement his team vigorously disputes. Salinas' side, though, has defended that commercial, and it's trying to get Erickson's suit dismissed.
Jeff Singer has more on the unfolding rematch―as well as a different scandal from Erickson's past that resurfaced last cycle.
The Downballot
● EMILYs List has been devoted to electing pro-choice Democratic women for 40 years, a mission that's grown only more critical since the fall of Roe. Joining us on this week's episode of "The Downballot" is Christina Reynolds, one of EMILYs' top officials, to tell us about how her organization recruits, supports, and advises women candidates at all levels of the ballot nationwide. Reynolds explains the unique challenges women face, from a lack of fundraising networks to judgments about their qualifications that never seem to stick to men. She tells us how Dobbs has—and hasn't—changed campaigning for EMILYs' endorsees and spotlights a wide range of key races the group is involved in this year.
Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also discuss the rollout of the DCCC's first "Red to Blue" list this year, highlighting the most promising Democratic pickup opportunities in the House. While the D-Trip is focused on general elections, the Davids explain why the committee has no choice but to get involved in a California primary thanks to the state's verkakte election rules. And finally, they tear into the Tennessee GOP for a ridiculous set of rule changes designed solely to protect a scandal-plagued incumbent—changes that will probably bite them in the ass before long.
Subscribe to "The Downballot" on Apple Podcasts to make sure you never miss a show. You'll find a transcript of this week's episode right here by noon Eastern time. New episodes every Thursday morning!
Senate
● MD-Sen: Rep. David Trone has released an internal poll from Hickman Analytics that shows him beating Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks 45-34 in the May 14 Democratic primary, which is larger than the 41-34 edge Hickman gave him in late November. We've seen no other polls conducted here during the last two months.
Trone, who is almost entirely self-funding his effort, began airing ads all the way back in May, and Inside Elections' Jacob Rubashkin says that he deployed $7 million alone since his previous poll was finished. By contrast, Alsobrooks and her allies haven't launched any serious ad campaigns with three-and-a-half months still to go before the primary.
Governors
● NC-Gov: Fundraising numbers are in covering the second half of 2023, and they show that Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein went into the new year with a huge financial edge over the other candidates:
- Attorney General Josh Stein (D): $5.7 million raised, $11.5 million cash on hand
- Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R): $3.4 million raised, $4.3 million cash on hand
- State Treasurer Dale Folwell (R): $112,000 raised, $1.3 million cash on hand
- Former state Supreme Court Justice Mike Morgan (D): $119,000 raised, $32,000 cash on hand
- Businessman Bill Graham (R): $100,000 raised, additional $2.8 million self-funded, $162,000 cash on hand
Graham said in October that he'd self-fund "at least $5 million." Folwell previously loaned his campaign $1 million in June, but he didn't do any more serious self-funding during the rest of the year.
House
● AZ-01: State Rep. Amish Shah announced Wednesday that he would resign from the legislature the following day to concentrate on his campaign to take on Republican Rep. David Schweikert. Shah is one of several candidates competing in the Aug. 6 Democratic primary for this competitive seat in the Phoenix area.
● CA-47: EMILY's List has launched a $1 million ad campaign in support of attorney Joanna Weiss, which makes this the first major independent expenditure from any group ahead of the March 5 top-two primary. The group's first spot touts Weiss as an ardent supporter of abortion rights and does not mention the other main Democrat in the race, state Sen. Dave Min.
● MO-03: Former Boone County Clerk Taylor Burks confirmed to KWOS this week that he's interested in running to succeed his fellow Republican, retiring Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer. Burks competed in last cycle's primary for the neighboring 4th District, finishing in fourth place with 10% of the vote.
● ND-AL: Public Service Commissioner Julie Fedorchak tells InForum.com that she hasn't ruled out running for the statewide seat that her fellow Republican, Rep. Kelly Armstrong, is giving up to run for governor. Fedorchak announced earlier in the week that she would not oppose Armstrong in the contest to replace retiring Gov. Doug Burgum.
● NY-03: The conservative Congressional Leadership Fund, reports Politico, has booked another $2.6 million on TV and digital ads with less than two weeks to go before the Feb. 13 special election.
AdImpact reports that Democrat Tom Suozzi and his allies maintain a $9.6 million to $5.7 million advantage over Republican Mazi Pilip's side in total ad spending and reservations. When AdImpact looks only at the portion of this $15.3 million that's booked for future ad buys, though, Democrats enjoy a smaller $2.8 million to $2.44 million edge.
● SC-01: Charleston County Council member Jenny Honeycutt responded to questions from the Post and Courier about a potential primary bid against GOP Rep. Nancy Mace by saying, "I have no intention of filing for this seat this election cycle."
Legislatures
● MI State House: Primary voters on Tuesday selected the nominees for a pair of April 16 special elections in the Detroit suburbs that Democrats need to win to once again hold an outright majority in the Michigan state House. The contests are being held to succeed a pair of Democrats who resigned to become mayor of their respective communities, Kevin Coleman of Westland and Lori Stone of Warren.
Westland City Councilman Peter Herzberg, who is Coleman's cousin and preferred successor, pulled off a 36-30 victory in the Democratic primary against colleague Andrea Rutkowski, who had Gov. Gretchen Whitmer's endorsement. Another 22% went to Layla Taha, a campaign worker who was backed by Rep. Rashida Tlaib. Herzberg will now take on Republican businessman Josh Powell, who faced no intra-party opposition. Joe Biden carried the 25th District 59-40 in 2020.
Macomb County Commissioner Mai Xiong, who had Whitmer's support, meanwhile won the Democratic nomination for the 13th District in a 79-15 landslide against former state Rep. Lamar Lemmons. Xiong will take on Republican Ronald Singer, a perennial candidate who beat his nearest primary opponent 63-21, in a constituency that Biden won 64-35. Singer challenged Stone in 2022 and lost 67-33.
The 110-member state House is currently tied 54-54. Democrat Joe Tate remains speaker, but the Detroit News says that the deadlocked chamber "has largely been at a standstill since the first of the year."
● PA State House, PA State Auditor: The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that Democratic state Rep. Mark Rozzi, who spent a short but vital two-month period as speaker last year, "quietly ended his auditor general campaign in December" but will still retire from the state House this cycle. Rozzi, who told the paper that he was receiving treatment for depression, said he would serve out the rest of his term: He has endorsed his ex-wife, Jacklyn Rusnock, to succeed him in the chamber.
Rozzi on Wednesday also backed fellow state Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta over Lehigh County Controller Mark Pinsley in the April 23 Democratic primary for auditor. The winner will take on Republican incumbent Timothy DeFoor.
● TX State House: Donald Trump on Tuesday endorsed former Orange County Republican Party chair David Covey's primary bid against state House Speaker Dade Phelan, a development that comes as different factions of the Texas GOP battle for dominance in the March 5 legislative primaries. You can find out much more about the expensive contests ahead for Republicans in the Texas Tribune's new piece.
Mayors & County Leaders
● San Francisco, CA Mayor: Daniel Lurie, who is the founder of an anti-poverty nonprofit and a Levi Strauss heir, has released an internal poll from David Binder Research arguing that he's well-positioned to beat Mayor London Breed in the Nov. 5 instant-runoff contest.
The survey shows Breed leading Lurie 26-21 when respondents are asked about their first choice, with former interim Mayor Mark Farrell and current Supervisor Ahsha Safaí respectively taking 15% and 10%. (Farrell has not yet announced if he'll run.) The survey goes on to show Lurie defeating Breed 46-28 in a hypothetical head-to-head scenario.
Prosecutors & Sheriffs
● Harris County, TX District Attorney: Former prosecutor Sean Teare this week earned an endorsement from former Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner, who left office at the start of the year, in the March 5 Democratic primary against District Attorney Kim Ogg.
● San Francisco, CA District Attorney: District Attorney Brooke Jenkins drew her first notable opponent on Friday, and it's someone she fired shortly after assuming office in 2022. Ryan Khojasteh was one of 15 people whom she dismissed after she was appointed to replace Chesa Boudin, who was ousted in a recall campaign that Jenkins played a major role in.
Khojasteh told the San Francisco Chronicle that he believes he was fired in part because he published an article in the SF Gate imploring Boudin's successor to maintain his criminal justice reforms, a piece that ran shortly before Mayor London Breed announced she was appointing Jenkins to be the new district attorney. Khojasteh later became a prosecutor in Alameda County on the other side of the Bay Bridge.
Khojasteh's only prior run for office appears to have been in 2018 when, as a law student, he waged a quixotic campaign against soon-to-be-Speaker Nancy Pelosi; Khojasteh ultimately earned 5% of the vote in the top-two primary. The officially nonpartisan race for district attorney will take place on Nov. 5 using instant-runoff rules.
Obituaries
● Jean Carnahan: Missouri Democrat Jean Carnahan, who became the first woman to represent the state in the Senate following her husband's posthumous 2000 victory, died Tuesday at the age of 90.
Carnahan was serving as first lady when Gov. Mel Carnahan died in a plane crash three weeks ahead of his general election contest with Republican Sen. John Ashcroft. The state's new governor, Democrat Roger Wilson, vowed to appoint Jean Carnahan if voters selected the Democratic nominee, and that's just what happened. The new senator, however, soon had to prepare for a tough, and ultimately unsuccessful, 2002 special election against former GOP Rep. Jim Talent.
The Associated Press has much more on Carnahan's career in public life in its obituary.
Campaign Action
