The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.
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Leading Off
● Three big stories broke on Wednesday that keen observers of downballot politics will want to explore in depth at Daily Kos Elections:
Wisconsin Republicans just passed new legislative maps proposed by the state's Democratic governor—over the opposition of Democratic lawmakers, who fear the GOP is "up to their usual tricks." Stephen Wolf explains why Democrats are pressing Tony Evers to veto the plans.
The Freedom Caucus has done more than any other group to help break Congress, so it's a rich irony when one of its members quits the House because they think Congress is broken. Jeff Singer has much more on Tennessee Rep. Mark Green, who at one point was too toxic even for his fellow Republicans when Donald Trump nominated him for a top government post.
Democrats have been scrambling to avoid a top-two lockout in California's 22nd District, but now Republicans face a familiar problem: A MAGA extremist might keep a more pragmatic GOP congressman from reaching the general election. Singer tells us all about the "shitbag" candidate that Republicans are desperate to toss in the trash.
The Downballot
● Ohhhhh yeah! Democrats kicked ass and then some in Tuesday's special election in New York, so of course we're talking all about it on this week's episode of "The Downballot." Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard explain how Tom Suozzi's win affects the math for Democrats' plan to take back the House, then dive into the seemingly bottomless list of excuses Republicans have been making to handwave their defeat away. The bottom line: Suozzi effectively neutralized attacks on immigration—and abortion is still a huge loser for the GOP.
The Davids then chat with Alex Roarty, a politics reporter at NOTUS, a new nonprofit newsroom promoting a new model not just for covering news but for training the next generation of reporters. Roarty tells us how his work has changed since coming over from the for-profit world and also shares his thoughts on the down-ticket races he's watching most closely this year, including bellwether contests in North Carolina and Pennsylvania.
Subscribe to "The Downballot" on Apple Podcasts to make sure you never miss a show. You'll find a transcript of this week's episode right here by noon Eastern time. New episodes every Thursday morning!
Senate
● CA-Sen: Fox 11 Los Angeles reporter Elex Michaelson relays that Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff is doubling down on ads designed to help the main Republican in the race, former Major League Baseball player Steve Garvey, out of the March 5 top-two primary alongside the congressman. Michaelson adds that this new spot from Schiff, who enjoys a huge financial advantage over the rest of the field, is part of an existing $10 million statewide buy.
Schiff's newest spot, just like the one he debuted a few weeks ago, boosts Garvey's profile with Republican voters while ostensibly attacking him. It features footage from a recent debate in which Schiff and fellow Democratic Reps. Barbara Lee and Katie Porter all criticized Garvey for being a conservative Trump backer. The spot then references a local news headline showing that Garvey "surges" in a recent poll, along with a Fox News headline calling Garvey "the key to a GOP-led Senate."
Polling in recent months has consistently found Schiff winning a plurality of the vote, which would ensure him the first spot in the primary, while Garvey and Porter are in close contention for second. Those same surveys tend to show Republican voters less certain about their choice, since Garvey lacks the funding for major ad buys in this expensive state. He also shares the ballot with a handful of lesser-known Republicans.
Schiff is trying to change that by encouraging Republicans to consolidate behind Garvey, with the expectation that he'd be much easier to beat in the general election than Porter or Lee.
● MI-Sen: Former Detroit Police Chief James Craig announced Tuesday that he was dropping out of the August GOP primary for Senate, telling The Detroit News, "The reality is fundraising is a challenge right now." He wasn't wrong: Craig, who parted ways with his campaign manager and deputy manager after just 17 days, raised a mere $61,000 during the fourth quarter of 2023.
Democrats still hoped that Craig, who campaigned as an ardent Trump loyalist, would be able to wrest the GOP nod from a stronger candidate, yet it was not to be. But Craig, who was booted off the 2022 primary ballot for governor over fraudulent signatures, still hasn't given up on winning elected office down the road.
The Republican told the paper that he's considering running in next year's officially nonpartisan race for mayor in loyally Democratic Detroit. The incumbent, Democrat Mike Duggan, has not yet revealed if he'll seek a fourth term in 2025.
● MT-Sen: Wealthy businessman Tim Sheehy has kicked off what Fox News says is a "six-figure" TV and digital ad buy highlighting his recent endorsement from Donald Trump. The spot calls the former Navy SEAL a "political outsider" and, in typical Trumpian language, praises Sheehy as "strong on the border, strong on our military and vets, and strong on the second amendment." It makes no mention of Rep. Matt Rosendale, who announced last week that he would oppose Sheehy in the June GOP primary.
● NM-Sen: Former Bernalillo County Sheriff Manny Gonzales has been disqualified from running for the Senate because he failed to submit enough signatures, reports the New Mexico Political Report's Matthew Reichbach. That leaves businesswoman Nella Domenici as the only Republican taking on Democratic Sen. Martin Heinrich.
To have his name put before delegates at the state GOP convention on March 2, Gonzales would have needed to gather 2,351 voter signatures. However, he only turned in approximately 875, reports Reichbach. To advance from the convention to the June 4 primary, candidates need to earn at least 20% of the vote; if not, they must collect additional signatures. But with Gonzales out of the picture, Domenici is now assured of being the Republican nominee.
● WI-Sen: Wealthy businessman Scott Mayer told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Lawrence Andrea on Tuesday that he'd hired 20 staffers for a potential campaign for the GOP nomination, but his would-be campaign manager soon informed both the National Journal and Andrea that he hadn't signed up for anything. "To clarify, nobody's on my payroll because I don't have a formal program yet," Mayer relayed to Andrea as an explanation. "But I have people lined up."
Mayer, however, doesn't appear to have walked back his attacks on fellow rich guy Eric Hovde, who is the national GOP's choice to oppose Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin. "I don't know that Wisconsin voters are keen on having a Wisconsin senator that lives in California," Mayer told Andrea said of Hovde, who among other things paid close to $7 million in 2018 for what the Journal Sentinel describes as a "luxurious hillside estate" in Orange County, California.
Hovde hasn't launched his campaign yet, but The Hill previously reported that Republicans expect him to announce this month. One other possible candidate, though, seems content to stay on the sidelines: While former Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke said in December he'd make up his mind about running "early in the New Year," Andrea writes that he's still "shown no signs of potential campaign activity."
House
● AL-01: The nihilistic House Freedom Caucus has launched what AdImpact reports is a $759,000 buy to help one of its members, Rep. Barry Moore, fend off fellow incumbent Jerry Carl in their March 5 GOP primary showdown. And Moore could use the help, as he ended 2023 at a big financial disadvantage against Carl, who also represents considerably more of the revamped 1st District. The Freedom Caucus' opening ad declares, "When it comes to protecting the border, Jerry Carl is softer than a baby's butt."
● GA-03: State Rep. David Jenkins said Wednesday that he was leaving the May 21 primary to replace his fellow Republican, retiring Rep. Drew Ferguson, and would seek reelection instead.
● NJ-07: EMILYs List has endorsed former state Working Families Party director Sue Altman in her bid to unseat first-term Republican Rep. Tom Kean. Altman is the only notable Democrat in the race for this swingy seat.
● NY-03: Republican Mazi Pilip hinted in her concession speech on Tuesday evening that she might challenge once and future Rep. Tom Suozzi for a full term despite her painful loss. "Yes we lost," said Pilip, "but it doesn't mean we're going to end here."
But at least one former New York Republican doesn't want to give her a second shot following her 54-46 defeat. "Just watched this very foolish woman, Mazi Melesa Pilip, running in a race where she didn't endorse me and tried to 'straddle the fence,'" wrote Donald Trump.
The GOP primary is scheduled for June 25, though it remains to be seen what the 3rd District will look like once the newest round of court-ordered redistricting is complete. Suozzi, for his part, is set to be sworn in on Feb. 28.
● Pennsylvania: Candidate filing closed Tuesday for Pennsylvania's April 23 primary, and the state has a list of contenders here. Some of these hopefuls may not appear on the ballot, though, as campaigns in the Keystone State often challenge their opponents' signatures. The Associated Press says that candidates have a week to file such challenges, and courts have another week to act.
Legislatures
● PA State House: Democrat Jim Prokopiak won a resounding victory in the special election for Pennsylvania's 140th House District on Tuesday night, defeating Republican Candace Cabanas in a 67-32 landslide. Prokopiak's margin represents a 25-point overperformance compared to Joe Biden's 10-point win in the district.
The success once again gives Democrats a 102-seat majority in the state House; Republicans hold 100 seats with one more GOP-held seat vacant. It also ensures that Republicans will not be able to take control of the closely divided chamber barring further vacancies.
Mayors & County Leaders
● San Francisco, CA Mayor: Former San Francisco Supervisor Mark Farrell, who served as interim mayor for six months in 2018, announced this week that he would challenge Mayor London Breed in the city's Nov. 5 instant-runoff election. The new contender joins a field that already includes Supervisor Ahsha Safaí and Daniel Lurie, who is the founder of an anti-poverty nonprofit and a Levi Strauss heir.
While San Francisco elections often turn into contests pitting moderates against progressives, the San Francisco Chronicle's J.D. Morris notes that Farrell, like Safaí and Lurie, "agrees with many of Breed's moderate views." The former supervisor instead emphasized concerns about crime in an interview with the paper, noting that his home was burglarized last year.
Ad Roundup
Campaign Action
