The Republican civil war over a government shutdown has reignited in the House, and Speaker Mike Johnson—just like former Speaker Kevin McCarthy before him—faces some hard choices. He can either shut down the government to appease the Freedom Caucus maniacs—pissing off everyone else, including voters—or he can work with Democrats to keep the government open and invite the hard-liners to try to oust him.
Johnson got an earful from all sides in a Wednesday afternoon meeting, Punchbowl News reports. He brought together some Freedom Caucus members, appropriation chairs, and vulnerable Republicans to break the news that they weren’t going to pass all their poison-pill riders about abortion and gender-affirming health care they had inserted in funding bills, and to argue against having another government shutdown. It didn’t go well.
Freedom Caucus Rep. Chip Roy of Texas complained to Punchbowl. “We’re going to blow past the [spending] caps using the side deals. And that means we’re not going to achieve spending level changes,” he said. “But to the point of the policy changes, my guess is we’re not going to get any. We’ll get crumbs.”
The Appropriations Committee members, which included subcommittee chairs Reps. Mario Diaz-Balart of Florida, Tom Cole of Oklahoma, David Joyce of Ohio, and Robert Aderholt of Alabama, “argued that a government shutdown was idiotic and would only hurt House Republicans,” according to Punchbowl. That apparently fell on deaf ears.
Johnson and his team were “surrendering” to Democrats, the insurgents insisted. They advocated for shutting down the government on March 1, arguing that they’d win the messaging battle this time around. “Barack Obama actually had control over the bully pulpit. Joe Biden does not,” Rep. Byron Donalds of Florida said.
In the aftermath, Republican Whip Tom Emmer of Minnesota told Bloomberg, “You are not going to get another continuing resolution out of our conference,” and that leadership had ruled out using any more short-term funding bills to give the House and Senate more breathing room to finish up the job. That ups the odds of a shutdown because Congress will have just three days when they return at the end of the month to figure it all out.
Johnson has few options. He could give the maniacs what they want, at least temporarily, with a partial shutdown. The March 1 deadline is for four out of 12 agencies—Agriculture, Energy-Water, Military Construction-Veterans Affairs, and Transportation-Housing and Urban Development. Those agencies could be shut down while Congress fights out funding for them and the eight remaining departments, which expires March 8.
Or he could pass a continuing resolution to cover the rest of the fiscal year. That would result in automatic cuts to everything starting on May 1, as mandated by the debt ceiling agreement between President Joe Biden and Kevin McCarthy negotiated last year. Those cuts would disproportionately hit non-defense funding, the Congressional Budget Office estimates, with a $73 billion cut—i.e., a 10% across-the-board to all non-defense programs. That could prove just about as unpopular as a shutdown. Sen. Patty Murray of Washington, chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee, explained earlier this year, “Let’s be clear about the damage here: immediate hiring freezes and furloughs at just about every agency.”
Finally, Johnson could give in to reality and good government, and pass the bipartisan funding bills that will get through the Senate and be signed by President Joe Biden, with all the fallout that would mean. Johnson’s job is definitely on the line here. The Freedom Caucus is in such a froth that if they don’t get their shutdown this time, they are likely to try to boot him.
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Ohhhhh yeah! Democrats kicked ass and then some in Tuesday's special election in New York, so of course we're talking all about it on this week's episode of "The Downballot." Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard explain how Tom Suozzi's win affects the math for Democrats' plan to take back the House, then dive into the seemingly bottomless list of excuses Republicans have been making to handwave their defeat away. The bottom line: Suozzi effectively neutralized attacks on immigration—and abortion is still a huge loser for the GOP.
