Ukrainian forces have begun to withdraw from Avdiivka, and Russian forces appear to be focused on complicating or preventing a complete Ukrainian withdrawal. Ukrainian forces may have to conduct counterattacks to conduct an orderly withdrawal from Avdivika, and Russian efforts to complicate or prevent a Ukrainian withdrawal may become increasingly attritional.
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated early in the morning Ukrainian time on February 17 that he ordered Ukrainian forces within Avdiivka to withdraw to more favorable defensive positions in order to avoid encirclement and save the lives of Ukrainian personnel.[1] Syrskyi’s announcement comes after several confirmed Russian advances on the outskirts of Avdiivka in the past 24 hours. Geolocated footage published on February 16 indicates that Russian forces advanced further south along Hrushevskoho Street on Avdiivka’s western outskirts and south of the Avdiivka Coke Plant in northwestern Avdiivka, made marginal gains in dacha areas in northeastern Avdiivka, and captured the Avdiivka City Park in central Avdiivka.[2] The Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces acknowledged earlier on February 16 that Ukrainian forces withdrew from an established fortified position south of Avdiivka and that Ukrainian forces are withdrawing from unspecified positions to new prepared defensive positions.[3] Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian forces are transferring reinforcements to the area to stabilize the situation and further degrade attacking Russian forces.[4] It is normal practice to bring in reinforcements to function as a receiving force that can allow withdrawing units to reconstitute behind prepared defensive positions. Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces are withdrawing en masse and that Ukrainian withdrawals are becoming increasingly chaotic and costly.[5] ISW has not observed any visual evidence of large or chaotic Ukrainian withdrawals, however, and the continued marginal rate of Russian advance in and around Avdiivka suggests that Ukrainian forces are currently conducting a relatively controlled withdrawal from Avdiivka.
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- Ukrainian forces have begun to withdraw from Avdiivka, and Russian forces appear to be focused on complicating or preventing a complete Ukrainian withdrawal.
- Ukrainian forces may have to conduct counterattacks to conduct an orderly withdrawal from Avdivika, and Russian efforts to complicate or prevent a Ukrainian withdrawal may become increasingly attritional.
- Germany and France both signed bilateral security agreements with Ukraine on February 16.
- NATO officials are increasingly warning that Russia poses a significant threat to NATO’s security.
- Independent Russian survey data suggests that most Russians are largely apathetic towards Russia’s war in Ukraine, particularly Russians who have not personally lost family members in Ukraine and are thus able to avoid thinking about the war entirely.
- The Russian reaction to the reported death of imprisoned opposition politician Alexei Navalny on February 16 was relatively muted.
- Russian forces recently made confirmed advances along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, northwest of Bakhmut, and near Avdiivka.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to posture himself as an involved and effective wartime leader.
- Russian-controlled courts in occupied Ukraine continue to pass harsh sentences on Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs).
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Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)
Russian forces recently made several confirmed marginal gains along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. Geolocated footage posted on January 27 shows that Russian forces advanced west of Synkivka on the eastern bank of Lake Lyman (northeast of Kupyansk) likely sometime in late January 2024.[34] Geolocated footage published on February 15 shows that Russian forces also recently advanced west of Karmazynivka (southwest of Svatove), and geolocated footage posted on February 16 shows that Russian forces recently advanced east of Yampolivka (west of Kreminna).[35] Ukrainian and Russian sources reported continued positional engagements northeast of Kupyansk near Synkivka; southeast of Kupyansk near Ivanivka, Tabaivka, and Tymkivka; west of Kreminna near Terny, Torske, and Yampolivka; and south of Kreminna near Bilohorivka.[36] ...] Elements of the ”Aida” group of Chechen ”Akhmat” Spetsnaz forces are reportedly operating near Bilohorivka.[38]
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Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces recently advanced northeast of Bakhmut. Geolocated footage published on February 15 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced northwest of Vesele (northeast of Bakhmut).[39] Positional fighting continued near Vesele on February 16.[40] Elements of the 6th Motorized Rifle Brigade (2nd Luhansk People’s Republic’s [LNR] Army Corps [AC]) are reportedly operating northeast of Bakhmut near Spirne.[41]
Russian forces reportedly advanced near Bakhmut amid continued positional fighting in the area on February 16…. Positional fighting continued northwest of Bakhmut near Bohdanivka, west of Bakhmut near Ivanivske, southwest of Bakhmut near Klishchiivka and Andriivka, and south of Bakhmut near Pivdenne.[43] Elements of the Russian 106th Airborne (VDV) Division and 58th Spetsnaz Battalion (1st Donetsk People’s Republic [DNR] AC) are reportedly operating in the Bakhmut direction and elements of the 98th VDV Division’s 331st VDV Regiment are reportedly attacking in the direction of Chasiv Yar (west of Bakhmut).[44]
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Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)
The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked southeast of Velyka Novosilka near Prechystivka and south of Velyka Novosilka near Staromayorske.[49] Elements of the Russian 14th Spetsnaz Brigade (Russian General Staff’s Main Directorate [GRU]) are reportedly operating near Staromayorske.[50] Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets stated that the recently reorganized Russian Eastern Grouping of Forces in the Novopavlivka direction (western Donetsk Oblast and Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area) includes nine brigades, 11 regiments, two battalions, and three battalion-sized tactical detachments, including BARS (Russian Combat Reserves) and ”Storm”-type detachments.[51] Mashovets stated that Russian forces have one infantry regiment and up to three battalions in reserve in this direction.
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