“You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time” ― Abraham Lincoln
The Wall Street Journal today published a piece titled, Lauren Boebert Tries to Convince New District She’s Not All Drama. The headline raises the question: Is Boebert succeeding? It is hard to say definitively. Not because Boebert should find any encouragement in the early signs — she finished fifth in a straw poll of the 11 candidates — but because the GOP primary is still four months away (June 25th). And a week is a long time in politics.
However, a rational bettor will not make a sizable play on a Boebert victory. Unless they can get some good odds. And not until they listen to the voters in the carpetbagger’s new district.
Take retired university employee Judy Scofield. This religious conservative is not a fan. And she is not buying the born-again Boebert’s religiosity.
"I don’t appreciate, as a Christian, people saying they’re Christian to get your vote and then turning out to be a lowlife. And now I just kind of think of her as a lowlife."
On the other hand, another anonymous voter took an apparently more sympathetic view of Boebert’s bad press. She told the opportunistic candidate at a voter meet-and-greet in Elbert County:
“So many things get spread about you.”
Mark Peters, a promoter who came to the event to sell T-shirts was more forthright in his admiration. He said he wanted the congresswoman in office,
“Stop Democrapping on America. Love Lauren Boebert…. She’s stood up to Democrats on everything.”
I am unsure how standing up to Democrappers separates Boebert from the herd. Don’t they all do that? Whatever. Chris Ware, a retired medical contractor, was impressed with some of the candidates. However, Boebert was not one of them.
“I will not vote for her. Period. She’s not one of us.”
GOP voter Tammi Flemming agreed and pointed to Boebert’s checkered history and geographic flexibility.
“On Facebook she’s not been well received by Republicans. It’s the shenanigans and the drama and moving districts.”
Boebert does have some things going for her — $1.3 million in the bank and almost universal name recognition. Of course, being widely known is not necessarily an asset if you are also notorious. In addition, among her 10 opponents are several with long statewide political experience and regional backing.
One of them, Weld County Councilman Trent Leisy, presented one of the strong arguments against the damaged Boebert.
“You don’t need someone who’s going to go from district to district because they can’t win.”
Republican strategist Josh Penry added to the belief that Boebert is a joke. And he warned the interloper she was in for a fight.
“The idea that because it’s a Republican stronghold that they’re going to nominate a fringe conservative like a Boebert in the primary is a wrong notion—this thing is a horse race,”
The candidate herself is maintaining both a brave face and the myth she counts for something. In an interview, she offered a glib aphorism and patted herself on the back.
“I have learned that closed mouths don’t get fed. In this movement, we can’t afford to lose strong voices, and mine is certainly one of those.”
Is it not hard to eat if you will not stop talking?
Lauren Boebert’s political career was based on her ability to fool enough people enough of the time to get elected. It worked well in 2020. In that election, she ran in Colorado’s 3rd US House district. In the GOP primary, she beat the long-time Republican incumbent Scott Tipton (he had flipped the seat from the Democrats in 2010). She went on to beat the Democrat, Diane Mitsch Bush, by 6% in November.
Things were looking good for her. Despite beating the Trump-endorsed candidate in the primary, she scored Trump’s backing in the general. Boebert returned the favor with unswerving loyalty to the MAGA godhead. She positioned herself as the GOP’s answer to Alexandra Ocasio Cortez — another young woman who had beaten an establishment politician. And she was ready to shake things up.
She did not do well. Her histrionic antics, as she pursued national recognition rather than putting in the hours in her home district, soured uncommitted independents and un-deluded conservatives.
In 2022, as an opposition Representative in a mid-term, she should have increased her margin. Instead, she held on to her seat by 546 votes, the slimmest margin of any House race that year. It was a disastrous showing. In September 2023, she further stepped into it with her infamously handsy theater date — an R-rated event that she spiced by vaping in front of a pregnant woman and lying about it.
Sensing that the voters in western Colorado were done with her malarkey, Boebert bailed. She took her show on the road to the eastern part of the state. And announced she would try her luck in Colorado’s 4th district — a more conservative area open for carpetbaggers after Republican stalwart Ken Buck decided he could no longer swim in the MAGA sewer in DC and retired.
Boebert declared her motivation in a Facebook video, in which she said she was running away to protect the voters in her old district. Although her subconscious word choice sheds an unintended light on who she was really benefitting: “Personally … me … my … I …. me” before she gets around to the conservatives of the 3rd District.
“Personally, this announcement is a fresh start following a difficult year for me and my family. I will not allow dark money that is directed at destroying me to steal this seat. It’s not fair to the 3rd District and the conservatives there who have fought so hard for our victories, of which I’m incredibly grateful.”
I suspect this limited thinker thought she would be greeted with a red carpet and a shower of flowers in her new district. As always, she was wrong. But all is not lost for Lauren. Republican political consultant Dick Wadhams made the salient point that for Boebert to lose, someone else has to win.
“It’s like there’s Boebert and everybody else. The question is, Who can break through to challenge her?”
However, as a recent poll by the research group The Mountaineer found that just 17% of Colorado voters have a favorable view of Boebert, that breakthrough should be an easy get.