The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.
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Leading Off
● NY Redistricting: New York's Democratic-run state legislature rejected a new congressional map proposed by the state's bipartisan redistricting commission on Monday, giving lawmakers the opportunity to move forward with their own plan instead. Democratic leaders unveiled alternative boundaries early on Tuesday, which we'll analyze more fully in the next Digest.
The commission's map, which was adopted on a 9-1 vote, was greeted with skepticism and even outright hostility by Democrats after its release earlier this month. While it did not make extensive alterations to the court-drawn districts it was designed to replace, the key changes it did make all seemed designed to make life easier for incumbents.
Earning the most negative attention were adjustments proposed for two districts held by vulnerable first-term incumbents in the Hudson Valley that would have made both seats less competitive—one for each party. The 18th District, represented by Democrat Pat Ryan, would have gotten a few points bluer, while the 19th, represented by Republican Marc Molinaro, would have gotten a few points redder.
One Republican incumbent in the Syracuse area, Rep. Brandon Williams, wouldn't have been so lucky, since his 22nd District would have been made slightly more Democratic. But he would still have benefited in another way because the commission's lines placed his home inside of his district—something the map did for three other incumbents as well, including House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.
Jeffries, though, was among those Democrats critical of the map, charging that commissioners had failed "to address many of the flaws in the current map drawn by an unelected, out-of-town special master in 2022." He also noted that the proposal split apart six more counties than the prior map did and argued that one such split "appears gratuitously designed to impermissibly benefit an incumbent in the 19th Congressional District."
Such a move, Jeffries warned, could violate the state constitution, which states that district boundaries "shall not be drawn to discourage competition or for the purpose of favoring or disfavoring incumbents or other particular candidates or political parties."
Democrats, however, will almost certainly see any districts they produce challenged in court by Republicans, who are likely to assert that they constitute an unlawful partisan gerrymander. New York's highest court has previously entertained such claims, though given recent turnover on the court, it's not clear how strict a standard it might apply in the future.
Senate
● MI-Sen: The Republican firm Marketing Resource Group has released the first poll of the August GOP primary we've seen since former Detroit Police Chief James Craig dropped out a little less than two weeks ago, and it shows Mike Rogers leading another former House member, Peter Meijer, 23-7. A hefty 62% majority remains undecided, while 2018 candidate Sandy Pensler clocks in at 2%.
This survey, which MRG says it commissioned itself, does not appear to have included former Rep. Justin Amash as an option. Amash said last month that he was forming an exploratory committee, but he has not yet announced a campaign to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow.
● NJ-Sen: New Jersey Rep. Andy Kim won the backing of two more county Democratic Parties over the weekend, earning him preferential placement on the June 4 primary ballots in Burlington and Hunterdon counties. He then followed up those victories by filing a lawsuit asking a court to bar election officials across the state from printing ballots that give exactly this sort of preferential placement to some candidates but not others.
Kim's Saturday victory in his home county of Burlington was no surprise, but his 90-8 landslide over former financier Tammy Murphy on a secret ballot vote came after talk of a possible deal for both candidates to share the county's coveted "line." (Kim had even claimed that Murphy's husband, Gov. Phil Murphy, had personally pushed for such an arrangement, though the Murphy campaign denied any such effort had taken place.)
The next day, Kim defeated Murphy in a 62-33 blowout in Hunterdon County, which also held an open convention and used a secret ballot. At the gathering, the local party chair proposed that the two rivals also share the county line, but delegates rejected the idea on a voice vote.
But despite racking up three straight victories in counties that have rejected back-room dealing and instead featured an open endorsement process, Kim has been outspoken in his opposition to the county line system.
As his lawsuit points out, research has shown that candidates who receive favorable placement benefit enormously. He argues that this system violates the First and 14th amendments to the Constitution and instead wants the state to use the "office-block style ballot in use in 49 states in the nation and already in use in two counties in New Jersey." Under this format, all candidates running for each particular office would be grouped together.
● NV-Sen, PA-Sen: NBC reports that the Koch network's Americans for Prosperity Action is spending $600,000 on ads praising Army veteran Sam Brown in Nevada and another $1 million on spots touting wealthy businessman Dave McCormick or attacking the Democrat he's trying to unseat, Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey.
Brown has to get past former Ambassador to Iceland Jeffrey Ross Gunter and 2022 secretary of state nominee Jim Marchant in the June GOP primary to face Democratic incumbent Jacky Rosen, though neither Gunter nor Marchant had so much as $60,000 available at the end of 2023.
McCormick, who has no notable opposition in his April nomination contest, dusted off a month-old internal from Public Opinion Strategies on Monday that shows him trailing Casey 47-40. Respondents favored Donald Trump 48-42, which the pollster argues would help McCormick overcome his deficit.
● WI-Sen: Wealthy businessman Eric Hovde has launched what the Associated Press says is an opening "seven-figure statewide buy," and the Republican's first commercial is the same video he used last week to announce his campaign against Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin. The state Democratic Party was quick to highlight that Hovde, who owns a $7 million home in California, "failed to even mention the name of the state he’s running to represent in his opening ad."
● WV-Sen: Not everyone has written off Rep. Alex Mooney for dead, as a group called Protect West Virginia Values is spending at least $523,000 to support him ahead of the May GOP primary. Inside Elections' Jacob Rubashkin reports that, while it's not entirely clear who is running or financing the super PAC, the outfit "has ties to both the Club for Growth and Mooney’s brother Patrick, a Florida political consultant."
The PAC's new ad declares that Mooney is the one candidate who will "have President Trump's back in the U.S. Senate." That may come as a surprise to Gov. Jim Justice, who is the Senate candidate who actually has Trump's endorsement.
Governors
● MT-Gov: SurveyUSA's poll for KULR-TV shows Republican Gov. Greg Gianforte with a 52-30 advantage over his likely Democratic foe, gun safety activist Ryan Busse. The station previously released numbers from mid-February showing Democratic Sen. Jon Tester leading Republican Tim Sheehy 49-40 even though respondents favored Donald Trump 51-29.
● NC-Gov: The progressive site Carolina Forward has released a mid-February survey from the Democratic firm Change Research that finds Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson edging out Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein 43-42 in a hypothetical general election for governor. The same sample has Donald Trump ahead of Joe Biden 45-44. The firm gave Robinson a 42-38 advantage in September.
Their matchup, according to Change, won't be hypothetical for much longer. The pollster shows Robinson with 59% in next Tuesday's primary, with self-funder Bill Graham and state Treasurer Dale Folwell at 9% each. Stein, for his part, enjoys a 49-8 advantage over former state Supreme Court Justice Mike Morgan. Other firms have also found Robinson and Stein far ahead of their respective intra-party rivals.
House
● CO-04: Douglas County Commissioner Abe Laydon has announced that he'll stay out of the June primary to replace his fellow Republican, retiring Rep. Ken Buck.
● NC-10: Journalist Bryan Anderson flags that outside groups have spent over $500,000 to promote firearms manufacturer Pat Harrigan, who was the GOP's 2022 nominee for the old 14th District, ahead of next week's busy primary to replace retiring Republican Rep. Patrick McHenry in the safely red 10th. Almost all of the spending comes from two groups: The Koch's Americans for Prosperity and Elect Principled Veterans Fund, which is affiliated with the super PAC With Honor.
Harrigan was running for the revamped 14th until McHenry unexpectedly decided to retire in December, a switch that seems to have helped him evade fire from outside groups. While super PACs spent almost $880,000 against Harrigan last year when he was state House Speaker Tim Moore's only serious obstacle to victory, they haven't followed him to his new district.
● NJ-03: Assemblyman Herb Conaway won the support of the Democratic Party in Burlington County over the weekend, entitling him to favorable placement on ballots in the June 4 primary. Conaway beat his nearest competitor, Assemblywoman Carol Murphy, in a 70-20 rout, two weeks after winning a similar blowout in Monmouth County. Together, the two counties make up 77% of the population in the 3rd District, which Rep. Andy Kim has left open to pursue a bid for Senate. The balance is in Mercer County, which has yet to issue an endorsement.
● NY-03: Air Force veteran Greg Hach, who had previously sought to challenge George Santos in the GOP primary, just became the first Republican to announce a bid against Democratic Rep.-elect Tom Suozzi. Hach raised $100,000 and self-funded another $200,000 during his short-lived campaign before getting passed over by local party leaders in favor of Nassau County Legislator Mazi Pilip, who lost to Suozzi 54-46 in a special election earlier this month.
● OH-06: Jake Zuckerman reports in cleveland.com that in 2022, Republican state Sen. Michael Rulli and his wife both opened fire when they believed a pair of teenagers were trespassing on their property, though they did not injure either teen. A special prosecutor concluded that the Rullis had behaved in a "reasonable" manner, though no one was charged.
Rulli, who is running to succeed former Rep. Bill Johnson in the March 19 regular and special election primaries, told Zuckerman that he'd fired at the ground as a warning. But the two teenagers, Hayden and Ashley Cibula, insisted the Rullis had been aiming for them. "It was really reckless," said Hayden Cibula, who insisted he hadn't been trespassing. "He could have came down to talk to us. But there was no reason to shoot."
Rulli faces his fellow state legislature, state Rep. Reggie Stoltzfus, in both of next month's nomination contests for this safely red seat in eastern Ohio. A third candidate, chiropractor Rick Tsai, is also running in both primaries, but he did not report raising any money in 2023.
● OR-05: State Rep. Janelle Bynum on Monday publicized an endorsement from Rep. Earl Blumenauer, who represents the neighboring 3rd District, ahead of the May Democratic primary for the 5th. Bynum already had the backing of Gov. Tina Kotek and Reps. Suzanne Bonamici and Andrea Salinas in her bid to take on freshman Republican Rep. Lori Chavez DeRemer.
● TN-07: Rep. Mark Green's office told The Tennessean on Monday that the Republican is reconsidering his recent decision to retire, though his team didn't say when the congressman expects to make up his mind. Tennessee's candidate filing deadline is April 4, and former state Rep. Brandon Ogles is currently the only notable Republican campaigning here.
Green's potential reversal came one day after GOP state Sen. Kerry Roberts responded to WKRN's questions about his interest in running by repeatedly saying he hoped the congressman would seek reelection. (Roberts neither confirmed nor denied that he might wage his own bid.)
Former Williamson County GOP chair Omar Hamada, meanwhile, told the conservative Tennessee Star earlier this month that he was thinking about joining the August primary, while the Nashville Banner also mentions Army veteran Matthew Van Epps as a possible Republican candidate. All of this, though, came before the news that Green might seek a fourth term after all.
Attorneys General
● NC-AG: Democratic Rep. Jeff Jackson posted a video on Friday warning that an outside Republican group is taking action "just to beat me" in next week's primary for attorney general of North Carolina, an effort he declared was "an elaborate deception campaign." The congressman claimed that the organization in question, And Justice For All PAC, is "now on track to spend $1 million" to stop him from winning his party's nomination on March 5.
Jackson, who launched his bid for attorney general after Republicans passed a new gerrymander that made his congressional district unwinnable, has been the favorite to earn the Democratic nomination throughout his campaign. The progressive site Carolina Forward underscored Jackson's frontrunner status on Monday when it released a mid-February poll from Change Research showing Jackson outpacing Durham County District Attorney Satana Deberry 38-14. Jackson also finished 2023 with a huge financial advantage.
Deberry, though, started to get some help late in the race when And Justice For All began airing TV ads seemingly designed to appeal to certain liberal voters. "As attorney general, she will fight to make the system more transparent, lower incarceration rates, and break the cycle of crime," said the narrator in one spot. There's little information about the super PAC, which only formed this month, but WFAE and WRAL reported last week that it uses the same bank and ad buyer as established GOP groups.
Deberry, for her part, pushed back on claims that she'd be easier for Republicans to beat in a general election, telling WUNC that such an argument "only assumes I'm a weak candidate because I'm a Black woman." She also argued that it would be good for the Democratic Party to nominate a Black candidate for attorney general in a year where none of the frontrunners for major statewide office are Black.
Whoever wins next week's primary will take on Republican Rep. Dan Bishop, an election denier who has no opposition in his own nomination contest. Like races up and down the ticket in North Carolina, the election to succeed outgoing Attorney General Josh Stein, who is the Democrats' frontrunner in the race for governor, will be a close one. The same Change Research poll found Bishop edging out Jackson 41-39, though it did not include numbers testing Deberry as the Democratic nominee.
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