On Tuesday, President Joe Biden summoned congressional leaders to the White House for what Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer described as a “productive and intense” meeting. Following that meeting, House Speaker Mike Johnson reportedly committed to averting a government shutdown.
After emerging from the meeting, Johnson told reporters, “We have to take care of America’s needs first.” At The Washington Post, ABC News, NBC News, and dozens more, headlines fret over the possibilities of a government shutdown as the articles below describe the alternatives and actions politicians on both sides of the aisle are willing to take to avoid this calamity.
But the focus of these reports is all wrong. What America needs most is not a deal to prevent the shutdown or even an agreement on the border. What’s most important to America—short term, long term, and everything in between—is the assistance package to Ukraine. And it’s not even close.
There have been 14 government shutdowns since 1980. Many have lasted only a single day. The longest were the result of a 21-day hissy fit from Newt Gingrich in 1995, and a 34-day snit from Donald Trump.
Most of these shutdowns were pointless expressions of political hubris, making it completely unsurprising that the list begins with Ronald Reagan shutting down the government to show his displeasure with bills that reached his desk. The government was shut down under Reagan eight times.
Each shutdown has generated potential economic upheaval and problems large and small. In addition to thousands of government workers idled without pay, shutdowns made Americans worry over Social Security checks and Medicare payments (though each of those will continue during a shutdown). For everyone trying to handle some business with the government or just hike through a National Park, they’re a pain in the ass.
The effect of all of these shutdowns together would not come within a light-year of the impact that will result if the United States fails to provide additional assistance to Ukraine.
Failing to pass Ukraine assistance will confirm to allies around the world that the U.S. can't be trusted. It will signal that even if Trump's isolationist "America first” policy isn't officially ensconced at the White House, it is still in effect. It will show that America is a faithless ally. It will fundamentally threaten world stability and risks turning a regional conflict into a global conflagration.
Only one time in the history of NATO has any nation invoked the Article 5 provision calling for allied support. When the United States rang that bell after 9/11, every member of NATO sent support. It didn’t matter that the war was in Afghanistan, hundreds of miles from any NATO border. NATO allies were there almost from the first day until the last day. Soldiers from the U.K., France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Denmark, and many other countries died answering America’s call. It didn’t matter if some of them thought America was taking the wrong approach in its response to a terrorist attack, or that the battlefield was far from their homes.
When America called, they came.
Even Ukraine—neither a NATO member nor an official U.S. ally—sent a contingent that spent 14 years in Afghanistan. The small number of Ukrainian troops didn’t fly home until the U.S. announced it was leaving, and even that wasn’t the end of the assistance Ukraine has provided in Afghanistan. Following the U.S. withdrawal in 2021, Ukraine was one of the very few countries willing to fly rescue missions to extract those thought to be at high risk from the Taliban.
Now Ukraine is calling for desperately needed assistance in an hour when the fate of democracy and the stability of the world is at stake. What the U.S. spent in Afghanistan vastly exceeds what the U.S. has provided Ukraine in its fight against the world’s second-strongest army, but the consequences of this war are much more important.
As CNN reported one year ago, Republican leaders in Congress were calling on Biden to increase military assistance to Ukraine. Now the Associated Press explains that Republicans’ reversal on Ukraine represents increasing support for Russian dictator Vladimir Putin.
The GOP has been softening its stance on Russia ever since Trump won the 2016 election following Russian hacking of his Democratic opponents. There are several reasons for the shift. Among them, Putin is holding himself out as an international champion of conservative Christian values and the GOP is growing increasingly skeptical of overseas entanglements. Then there’s Trump’s personal embrace of the Russian leader.
As CNN reports, Republicans are likely to snub pleas from Ukraine because “[s]ending more taxpayer funds to a war on the edge of Europe is incompatible with the ‘America First’ creed of a party dominated by ex-President Donald Trump.”
Following 9/11, America called and Europe responded with more than a decade of commitment, in terms of both assistance and troops. Now Europe’s pleas for American help are falling on deaf ears. As NPR reports, European leaders are planning for a future “without the United States as an ally.”
Trump isn’t even in office, but Trumpism so dominates the Republican Party that it is willing to sacrifice bonds forged over decades, at the cost of tens of thousands of lives, to please Trump. Why should anyone trust an ally that’s so utterly feckless?
For Putin, there has never been a more exciting, joyful moment. In a fundamental way, Russia can win a war against the West without ever firing a shot against a NATO country, thanks to Donald Trump and those “soft” Republicans.
From the beginning of Russia’s illegal and unprovoked invasion, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has tried to ride a fine line, praising those who promise support, patiently explaining his nation’s dire straits, and trying to remain hopeful. In December, Zelenskyy met face-to-face with Johnson, and as he has on so many occasions, the Ukrainian president explained the difficulties of the war, the suffering of his nation, and the necessity of U.S. assistance. Despite Republican intransigence that had already stalled Ukraine aid for months, Zelenskyy continued to express his gratitude to the U.S. and emerged from the meeting convinced that Johnson would help.
“I don’t think [Donald Trump] understands that Putin will never stop.” — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
But whatever Johnson communicated to Zelenskyy, he has made no move to help Ukraine in the months that have passed since the meeting. Now Zelenskyy seems closer to despair than at any time since the invasion began, baffled by Trump’s support for Putin.
"I know he met him … but he never fought with Putin,” Zelenskyy told CNN this past Sunday. “[The] American army never fought with the army of Russia. … I have a better understanding. … I don’t think he understands that Putin will never stop.”
Every day that Republicans hold back assistance because of Trump is a victory for Putin. What’s happening in the U.S. Congress is more consequential to this war than events in Bakhmut or Avdiivka.
But this isn’t only a tragedy for Ukraine and a victory for Russia. Its cost to the United States is immeasurable.
The next time America sounds the alarm … who will answer?
Simon Rosenberg from the Hopium Chronicles Substack is back to talk about the facts of the 2024 election cycle. The facts are: Things look bad for Donald Trump—and even worse for the Republican Party.
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