I know that a lot of people somewhat rely upon The Old Farmer's Almanac, but, if you ponder a moment you will surely note that there is neither a "Young Farmer's Almanac" nor a "New Farmer's Almanac", which should tell you something. A lot of people complain about the accuracy of weather predictions, but weatherpersons are right more often than politicians and at least try to be truthful and accurate. There is also some confusion as to what such projections mean. There is an explanation here: https://www.weather.gov/media/pah/WeatherEducation/pop.pdf, but it lacks a bit of clarity if not intelligibility.
My interpretation is that if there is a 100% chance of rain in Alameda County, but only a 40% chance it will hit Oakland, then there is a 40% chance of rain in Oakland. Similarly, if there is only an 80% chance or rain in Alameda County, but a 50% chance that any such rain will hit Oakland, then there is also a 40% chance of rain in Oakland. Lastly, I recall an internet posting by a bona fide meteorologist to the effect that a 40% chance of rain in Oakland could mean that there is a 100% chance or rain in Oakland, but that such rain will only hit 40% of the city. Meanwhile, contrary to song and legend, it does rain in California and it is raining right here at my house while I am writing this. I am, fwiw, writing this in early January, so who knows what the weather here will be on February 5.
Everybody is always talking about the weather --
It seems one either gets too much rain --
or not nearly enough
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On February 5, 1924, the Royal Greenwich Observatory began broadcasting the Greenwich Time Siognal. W00T! Now we all knew what time it was and hence where we were and probably where we were supposed to be. Navigation depends on time and much of our lives is organized around time and yet it's a construct, arbitrary and capricious in this instance or arguably any opther. We can note and sense duration, but we cannot move foreward or backward in time as we can in any spatial direction or dimension. WTF is time anyway to rule our lives and existence while being so inexplicable and immaterial?
On this day in history:
1849 -- U of Wis. at Madison's first class met at the Madison Female Academy
1852 -- The Hermitage Museum in Saint Petersburg opened
1859 -- Wallachia and Moldavia were united and eventually became Romania
1885 -- King Leopold II of Belgium established the Congo as a personal possession.
1909 -- The creation of Bakelite was announced.
1917 -- Mexico's current constitution was adopted.
1924 -- The Royal Greenwich Observatory began broadcasting the Greenwich Time Signal.
1939 -- Francisco Franco became dictator of Spain and beloved of the US govt.
1945 -- Douglas MacArthur returned to Manila.
1958 -- The USAF lost an H-bomb (the Tybee Bomb) of the coast of Georgia.
1962 -- De Gaulle called for Algerian independence
1985 -- The mayors of Rome and Carthage signed a treaty ending the Third Punic War. **
** Accordingly, it lasted 2,131 years. This, then, is the record which the US had been trying to break with Viet Nam and Afghanistan, and is still trying to break with the GWOT.
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Born this day in:
1594 -- Biagio Marini, violinist and composer
1626 -- Marie de Rabutin-Chantal, writer
1880 -- Gabriel Voisin, pilot and engineer
1923 -- Claude King, country singer, guitarist and songwriter
1927 -- Robert Allen, pianist and composer
1929 -- Hal Blaine, Wrecking Crew drummer
1929 -- Luc Ferrari, pianist and composer
1941 -- Henson Cargill, country singer
1941 -- Barrett Strong, singer, songwriter, and pianist
1941 -- Cory Wells, singer
1944 -- Al Kooper, singer, songwriter, keyboards player
1952 -- Daniel Balavoine, singer and songwriter
1953 -- Freddie Aguilar, singer, songwriter and guitarist
1954 -- Cliff Martinez, drummer and songwriter
1956 -- Vinnie Colaiuta, drummer
1964 -- Duff McKagan, singer, songwriter and bassist
1965 -- Keith Moseley, bassist and songwriter
1969 -- Bobby Brown, singer, songwriter actor, dancer
1971 -- Sara Evans, country singer
1973 -- Trijntje Oosterhuis, singer and songwriter
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Died this day in:
881 – Thomas Carlyle, philosopher, historian, and academic
1976 -- Rudy Pompilli, saxophonist
1989 – Joe Raposo, pianist and composer
1998 -- Tim Kelly, guitarist
2012 -- Al De Lory, keyboard player, wrecking company musician, producer
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Holidays, Holy Days, Festivals, Feast Days and such:
National Weatherperson's Day
California Western Monarch Day
World Nutella Day
National Shower with a Friend Day
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So, for music,
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National Weatherperson's Day
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Biagio Marini
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Robert Allen
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Hal Blaine
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Luc Ferrari
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Henson Cargill
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Barrett Strong
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Cory Wells
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Al Kooper
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Freddy Aguilar
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Vinnie Colaiuta
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Duff McKagan
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Rudy Pompilli
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Al De Lory
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Bonus Kooper (with Bloomfield)
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It's an open thread, so do your thing
Open Thread, weatherpersons, Punic War III, Hal Blaine, Barrett Strong, Cory Wells, Al Kooper, Vinnie Colaiuta, Freddy Aguilar