Observers worldwide who value democracy are now fidgeting nervously at the prospect of American voters abandoning their 235-year history of “We the people” in favour of a dictatorship ruled by Donald Trump. Several other electoral contests are generating similar apprehension.
More voters will go to the polls in 2024 than in any year in history, with elections to be fought in all four of the largest democracies – India, the USA, Indonesia and Pakistan. Other high-population countries with forthcoming ballots include Bangladesh, Mexico, Iran, the United Kingdom, South Africa and Russia. Just those ten nations comprise nearly forty per cent of the world’s population. In total, 56 national polls will be held this year.
So democracy will be tested mightily in 2024. Vladimir Putin has set Friday 15th March as the date for Russia’s presidential election. He is expected to announce the results on the Wednesday before.
Drift to the right to continue?
Last year saw several wins for right wing parties, including in Argentina, the Netherlands and New Zealand. Military coups tossed out governments in Niger and Gabon, bringing to seven the number of poor African countries where elected presidents have been ejected in the last three years.
Argentineans swapped leftist president Alberto Fernández for right wing populist and fanatical libertarian Javier Milei in December. Milei had a promising career as a pop singer until Argentina’s hyperinflation in the 1990s prompted him to switch to politics. A bit like Peter Garrett, but without the dance moves.
Milei has been compared with presidents Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil and Donald Trump in the USA, both of whom were tossed out unceremoniously after one chaotic and violence-ridden term.
Global election watcher Charles Richardson notes a big difference in that neither Bolsonaro nor Trump “made any secret of being straight-out authoritarians, but Milei seems quite genuinely to be attempting a synthesis of libertarian and authoritarian politics.”
Milei’s success requires curbing inflation, which hit 211% in December.
Voters in the Netherlands elected to their parliament members of 15 disparate political parties last November, complicating the formation of a governing collective. The far right Party for Freedom led by Geert Wilders surprised by gaining the most parliamentary seats, with 37 of the 150. Next highest was the leftist Green/Labour party led by another veteran, Frans Timmermans, with just 25. Both leaders are still trying to wrangle a coalition.
In New Zealand, the right wing National Party led by Christopher Luxon knocked over the Coalition led so well by Labour’s Jacinda Ardern for five and a half years. Arden handed the prime ministership to Chris Hipkins in January last year, not time enough for him to avoid defeat in November.
Elections to watch in 2024
We asked Charles Richardson if he is concerned about authoritarianism advancing this year.
“Very much so. I think India is probably the biggest concern, but some trends in Indonesia are also quite alarming. And of course Turkey is a continuing worry. I'd keep an eye on Georgia, too.”
India’s April election will see the opposition National Developmental Inclusive Alliance led by Mallikarjun Kharge challenge Prime Minister Narendra Modi of the Bharatiya Janata Party who has held office for ten years. Modi seems secure.
Indonesians will choose a president next week to replace Joko Widodo who retires due to term limits. Of the three candidates, the winner will probably be either Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto or Ganjar Pranowo of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle.
In the USA, former President Donald Trump pursuing a comeback while defending 91 criminal charges in four jurisdictions, and multiple civil lawsuits.
We shall review this in more detail tomorrow.
We are in for an enthralling year. Buckle up.
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This is an edited version of an article published today in Independent Australia, available in full for free here:
independentaustralia.net/...