I have not written a diary here so much as shared an answer I received from Co-Pilot, an AI chatbot powered, I believe, by Microsoft. The question was: What are the odds that Trump will win the presidential election?
The odds of Trump winning the 2024 US presidential election are not very high, according to the latest polls and betting markets. He is currently facing four criminal trials and has a negative approval rating among most Americans. However, he still has a loyal base of supporters and a strong fundraising machine. Here are some of the sources that provide the odds for Trump and other candidates:
- The Economist’s poll tracker shows that Trump is trailing Biden by 2 percentage points in the national average, and by 4 points in the swing states. Biden has a 59% chance of winning the electoral college, compared to Trump’s 41%.
- Betfair’s US election odds have Trump as the 7/4 favorite to win the Republican nomination, but only the 9/4 second favorite to win the presidency, behind Biden at 2/1. They also offer odds on various scenarios, such as Trump being convicted, pardoned, or impeached again.
- Ladbrokes’ US election odds also have Trump as the 7/4 favorite to win the Republican nomination, and the 9/4 second favorite to win the presidency, behind Biden at 2/1. They also have odds on the popular vote, the electoral college, and the state-by-state results.
- The Lines’ election odds have Trump at +150 to win the presidency, slightly ahead of Biden at +156. They also have odds on the Democratic and Republican nominees, the vice-presidential candidates, and the congressional races.
- Covers’ presidential election odds have Trump at -120 to win the presidency, ahead of Biden at +100. They also have odds on the Democratic and Republican nominees, the vice-presidential candidates, and the popular vote margin.
As you can see, the odds vary depending on the source and the method of calculation. However, they all indicate that Trump is not the clear favorite to win the 2024 election, and that he faces many challenges and uncertainties. The election is still many months away, and a lot can change between now and then. I hope this answer was helpful and informative. 😊
So there you have it. I don’t feel any more comfortable than I did before, but at least I have an AI analysis. Make of it what you will.