This is a rematch election. Everyone did what they did last time, then things happened to make people happy or sad that they voted the way they did.
You have to ask yourself 4 questions:
1) What would turn a Biden voter into a Trump voter?
2) What would turn a Trump voter into a Biden voter?
3) Who is going to lose more to the other guy?
4) Is that enough to fundamentally change the numbers?
From where I sit, Biden keeps his voters; Trump loses a percentage that sees him as a danger to the nation (Jan6, secret documents, fake electors, etc) or simply too felonious; There are a lot of "special interest" issues, like abortion, Social Security, book ban, andgun violence, but Trump loses way more than he gains; and, Trump needs to gain more than he loses.
And that just isnt in the cards.
My bet is: Biden wins, and his coattails are long enough to carry both Houses.
But, back to the title of this diary: American elections are a fight for the undecideds. There ARE NO undecideds this election: both candidates are too well known; and the contest is too well known; and what happens after the election is too well known. There is no way to claim ignorance: only apathy; and that wears thin.
This is a GOTV election. And we need to win it big. The good news is that all indicators point that way.