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Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 3/14

by Daily Kos Elections for Daily Kos Liveblogs

Daily Kos Staff Emeritus

Thursday, Mar. 14, 2024 Thursday, Mar. 14, 2024 at 5:59:44am PDT

Welcome to the Daily Kos Elections Live Digest, your liveblog of all of today's campaign news. You can find our collection of public data at dailykosdata.com.

Please note: The Live Digest is a Democratic presidential primary-free space. It’s also a place to discuss elections, not policy.

Subscribe to our podcast, The Downballot! New episodes every Thursday morning.

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UPDATE: Thursday, Mar 14, 2024 · 9:03:13 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer

Ad Roundup:

IN-Gov: Eric Doden (R) - anti-Mike Braun (R)
WV-Gov: Chris Miller (R)
IN-05: Victoria Spartz (R-inc)
Cook County, IL State's Attorney: Eileen O’Neill Burke (D)

UPDATE: Thursday, Mar 14, 2024 · 8:43:11 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer

• Where Are They Now?: Three former U.S. House members from California—Democrats Jerry McNerney and Laura Richardson and Republican George Radanovich—campaigned for seats in the state legislature in the state's March 5 top-two primary, and now that most of the votes are tabulated, it's clear that all of them will advance to the November general election. A fourth former representative, Democrat Jackie Speier, outright won a seat on the San Mateo County Board of Supervisors.

McNerney, who retired from Congress last cycle, appears to be the best situated of the trio even though he took second place last week. That's because the Stockton-based Senate seat McNerney is seeking favored Joe Biden 59-39, and McNerney will face Republican Jim Shoemaker rather than a fellow Democrat. Shoemaker took first with 45% as McNerney scored a 32-24 victory over Assemblyman Carlos Villapudua, whom Politico last year called "one of the most moderate Democrats" in the lower chamber.

Richardson, though, will have to face another Democrat in a dark blue Senate district in Los Angeles County. Richardson led with 26% while former Compton City Councilmember Michelle Chambers beat out Republican James Arlandus Spencer 23-22 for the crucial second spot. Richardson is trying to revive her political career 12 years after she badly lost reelection to fellow Democratic Rep. Janice Hahn months after receiving a reprimand from the House. Politico says that business groups are backing Richardson, while labor organizations are behind Chambers.

Radanovich, meanwhile, has yet to learn whether he'll go up against a fellow Republican or a Democrat in a conservative Assembly seat in the Central Valley. With 95% of the estimated vote in as of Thursday afternoon, Radanovich leads with 36% as Republican David Tangipa holds a 31.2-29.6 edge over Democrat Caleb Helsel.

The trio is running to replace termed-out Republican Assemblyman Jim Patterson, who lost the 2010 primary to replace the retiring Radanovich in Congress back when California still had party primaries. Patterson and Fresno Mayor Jerry Dyer are supporting Tangipa, an aide to the Fresno County Board of Supervisors who, at 28, is four decades Radanovich's junior. Radanovich, for his part, ran for the state Senate in 2022 but narrowly took third in the top-two primary behind two Democrats.

As for Speier, she won a seat on the San Mateo County Board of Supervisors, a five-member body she previously served on four decades ago. Speier, who retired from Congress last cycle, outpaced Millbrae Councilmember Ann Schneider 69-31 in this officially nonpartisan race. But unlike her former colleagues, the ex-congresswoman does not need to go before the voters again because the county allows candidates to win outright if they take a majority—a rule that does not apply to contenders for Congress or state office.

Two other former House members also won reelection as supervisors on their respective county boards. Hahn, who left Congress in 2016 to claim a seat on the body that leads Los Angeles County, decisively turned back former Sheriff Alex Villanueva 57-29. She'll continue to serve alongside fellow Democrat Hilda Solis, another former congresswoman who won her most recent four-year term in 2022. Republican Paul Cook, who transitioned from the House to the San Bernardino Board of Supervisors in 2020, also secured reelection 64-16.

UPDATE: Thursday, Mar 14, 2024 · 8:36:02 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer

• MO Ballot: YouGov's February poll for St. Louis University finds a 44-37 plurality of general election voters supporting an abortion rights amendment after they have the proposed ballot language read to them. If this amendment collects the requisite signatures, it would be up to GOP Gov. Mike Parson to decide whether it would go before voters during the August primary or the November general election.

YouGov does not appear to have asked respondents how they feel about a different amendment being advanced by legislative Republicans that would require future state constitutional amendments to win both a majority of the statewide vote and prevail in at least five of Missouri's eight congressional districts. If lawmakers approve this plan, it would likely appear on the ballot in August.

UPDATE: Thursday, Mar 14, 2024 · 7:42:15 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer

• OH-Sen: Politico's Ally Mutnick broke the news Wednesday evening that the Democratic group Duty and Country PAC, which is an affiliate of Senate Majority PAC, is airing commercials to boost wealthy businessman Bernie Moreno ahead of next week's Republican Senate primary in Ohio. Both AdImpact and the GOP firm Medium Buying say that Democrats are spending at least $2.7 million to try to ensure that the Trump-backed Moreno is Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown's opponent this fall.

The PAC's ad ostensibly attacks Moreno as "too conservative for Ohio," which is the type of language that Democrats have used for more than a decade when they want to meddle in Republican primaries. The narrator continues by reminding viewers that Trump supports Moreno and called him "exactly the type of MAGA fighter that we need in the United States Senate." The spot goes on to argue that Moreno "would lead the charge to enact Trump's MAGA agenda to repeal Obamacare and institute a national ban on abortion."

The ad campaign comes ahead of an already unpredictable battle to take on Brown. A new poll from SurveyUSA for Ohio Northern University underscores just how uncertain things are by showing Moreno edging out state Sen. Matt Dolan just 22-18, with Secretary of State Frank LaRose at 16% and a 44% plurality undecided. Trump, for his part, is set to hold a Saturday rally for Moreno, while Gov. Mike DeWine issued a surprise endorsement of Dolan days ago.

SurveyUSA also finds Brown leading all three Republicans in hypothetical general election matchups even as respondents back Trump by a wide 50-38 margin:

42-39 vs. Dolan
43-37 vs. Moreno
44-36 vs. LaRose

Democrats, though, have plenty of reasons to think that Moreno would be the most flawed opponent Brown could face. While all three candidates oppose abortion rights, Moreno has stood out by calling for a 15-week federal ban just months after Ohio voters decisively approved a state constitutional amendment to safeguard the procedure until fetal viability, which is about 22 to 24 weeks into pregnancy.

And while both Moreno and Dolan are multimillionaires who have poured their own resources into their respective campaigns, Democrats likely believe that the former would be more vulnerable against a progressive populist like Brown.

Moreno became wealthy as a luxury car dealer, and he's attracted unfavorable coverage over his business history. Insider published a January article headlined "Trump-backed Ohio Senate candidate shredded documents as he faced a lawsuit accusing him of wage theft," a story that Dolan's super PAC allies have made use of in their attack ads. Dolan also brought the matter up at a debate earlier this year, to which Moreno responded, "The reality is … the judge is a Harvard elitist lunatic."

Dolan, by contrast, has condemned the Big Lie, though he's avoided portraying himself as an anti-Trump candidate. He's also a co-owner of Major League Baseball's Cleveland Guardians, who saw a big jump in attendance last season.

Moreno, meanwhile, has framed the race as a battle between "between the America-First Republican party and the broken-down RINO establishment." Trump may also be all too happy to attack Dolan, who took a close third in the 2022 primary for Ohio's other U.S. Senate seat.

As for LaRose, he appears to be in poor shape heading into the final days of the race. Medium Buying says that the secretary of state's campaign hasn't aired any TV or radio ads at all and has instead largely depended on a super PAC called Leadership for Ohio to get its message out. But while the group, which is funded by conservative megadonor Richard Uihlein, has deployed a total of $5.1 million on advertising, NBC's Henry Gomez said earlier this week that it had less than half a million dollars reserved for the final days.

LaRose is likely hoping that, like Duty and Country PAC, his super PAC allies will launch a late offensive to lift him. If Uihlein doesn't come through, though, he'll have a hard time pulling off an upset at a time when Moreno and especially Dolan are saturating the airwaves.

UPDATE: Thursday, Mar 14, 2024 · 7:30:45 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer

• NJ-Sen: Unnamed sources tell NBC that Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez is considering seeking reelection as an independent, a move that would allow the indicted incumbent to continue raising campaign funds that he could use for his legal bills. Menendez, who is set to go on trial for corruption on May 6, did not confirm or deny anything when the network questioned him on Thursday. "I don't have to declare what I am doing," he responded. "When I do, everybody will know."

While the senator has not ruled out campaigning for another term as a Democrat, he may already be out of time to run in the June primary. Candidates only have until March 25 to turn in 1,000 signatures, and the New Jersey Globe notes that Menendez has done nothing to begin the process of qualifying for the ballot.

Unaffiliated contenders still need to submit 800 signatures, but they have until the day of the state's June 4 primary to do so. The Globe adds that any independent who makes the ballot has until Aug. 16 to withdraw their name, a date that would likely come after Menendez's trial concludes.

While Menendez could disproportionately pull votes from the Democratic nominee should he run without a party label, there just may not be enough voters willing to back him to cause the party trouble in this dark blue state. Polls have shown the senator with epically atrocious approval ratings since he was indicted in September, with a Monmouth University survey giving him a toxic 16-74 score earlier this month and a still-lethal 23-65 rating among Democrats.

• DE-Gov: Democrat Collin O'Mara, who heads the National Wildlife Federation, announced Wednesday that he was entering the Sept. 10 primary to succeed termed-out Gov. John Carney. O'Mara joins a nomination contest that already includes Lt. Gov. Bethany Hall-Long, who has Carney's endorsement, as well as New Castle County Executive Matt Meyer. The candidate filing deadline isn't until July 9, but no other notable names have expressed interest in the race.

O'Mara doesn't appear to have run for office before, though he did serve as the state's environmental secretary from 2009 to 2014. He later went on to become president and CEO of the National Wildlife Federation, which describes itself as "America's largest wildlife conservation organization."

While O'Mara announced well after his two rivals, he isn't starting this effort from scratch. O'Mara ended 2023 with $870,000 available in his exploratory committee, with most of that coming from self-funding. Meyer, by contrast, had $1.7 million banked, while Hall-Long had $688,000 on hand.

• AK-AL: The Democratic firm Data for Progress has released an early March survey showing Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola and Republican businessman Nick Begich deadlocked 50-50 after simulating Alaska's instant-runoff process, with respondents favoring Donald Trump 53-41.

The firm, which did not mention a client, first finds Peltola leading in a hypothetical first round of voting with 44%, with Begich holding a 35-10 edge over GOP Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom for second; another 2% favor Libertarian Chris Bye, while 8% are undecided. Candidate filing remains open until June 1, but no other major names have expressed interest in joining the Aug. 20 top-four primary.

Peltola won her first full term last cycle 55-45 against Republican Sarah Palin after ranked-choice tabulations eliminated Begich from contention. However, while Begich has argued he would be a more formidable opponent than Palin, election data showed he would have lost by a slightly larger margin than Palin―just under 11 points―had he taken second.

• NY-01: EMILY's List has endorsed Nancy Goroff, who was the 2020 Democratic nominee for a slightly more conservative version of the 1st District, in the June 25 primary to take on freshman GOP Rep. Nick LaLota.

• NY-22: State Sen. John Mannion on Thursday earned the support of the progressive Working Families Party for the June 25 Democratic primary to face GOP Rep. Brandon Williams in this Syracuse-based seat. The freshman was already a top Democratic target even before the state's new congressional map extended Joe Biden's 2020 margin of victory from 53-45 to 55-43.

Mannion's main intra-party opponent this summer is DeWitt Town Councilor Sarah Klee Hood, an Air Force veteran who lost a close 2022 primary for the previous version of this seat. Utica University professor Clemmie Harris is also in, but he raised little money during 2023. The WFP also says that, unlike Klee Hood, Harris did not try to seek its endorsement.