Hello, everyone. Good morning, afternoon or evening, and welcome to this edition of Notes from South Asia. You can find all the articles in the series here (along with my other diaries).
Today, we will cover Elections in India, India out and China in in Maldives, and Alliance switching in Nepal among other equally important news.
India
Elections
The Election Commission of India may announce the dates for elections any day now. And there has been much drama in anticipation of it. As if the Ram temple installation was not enough. If you remember, I had mentioned in a February Notes that the Supreme Court of India had ruled the Indian government’s electoral bonds scheme—that allowed people to donate to parties anonymously—unconstitutional. The court had asked the State Bank of India (SBI), which was the sole bank authorised to issue and distribute the bonds, to release the details of the bonds and their buyers and depositors by 6th March. The SBI instead sought time till June 30 (well after the likely May elections). The court said no and asked it to furnish the data—without matching buyer to party—within 24 hours. The ECI has to make it available on its website by May 15th. As Krishnadas Rajagopal reports for the Hindu.
The Supreme Court on Monday dismissed an application by the State Bank of India (SBI) for time till June 30, 2024 to provide details of electoral bonds purchased anonymously and their encashment by political parties.
A five-judge Bench headed by Chief Justice of India D.Y. Chandrachud, which had on February 15 struck down the electoral bonds scheme as unconstitutional, gave the bank 24 hours, that is, by the close of business hours on March 12, to provide the details to the Election Commission of India (ECI).
The court said the information on electoral bonds required to be divulged by the judgment was “readily available” with the bank. Once the bank forwards the details, the ECI has to go ahead and publish the data on its official website on March 15 by 5 p.m.
The court had originally, in its judgment, required the bank to pass on the complete details of the bonds purchased from April 12, 2019 to February 15, 2024; the dates of purchase; the names of the purchasers; the denominations of the bonds purchased along with the details of bonds redeemed by political parties, including the dates of encashment and denominations of the electoral bonds. The judgment had given the bank time till March 6.
However, the bank had applied for an extension of time till June 30, possibly well after the Lok Sabha polls, to give the ECI the details. The bank’s request came exactly two days before the court’s March 6 deadline.
The ECI said yesterday that it only received raw data from SBI and it may be difficult match the bond details to donors. But activists think that can be done by civil society. As the Hindu editorial from 12th March says.
In rejecting the bank’s application for time and keeping the threat of contempt action alive, the Court has sent a message that it will not brook any further delay. The Bench has also rightly questioned the bank’s silence on what had been done to comply with the order until the filing of an application for extension of time, just two days before the March 6 deadline. It is now quite apparent that even manually matching the two datasets could not have taken as long as the four months the SBI wanted. A question may arise as to whether the voters’ right to information, the very basis for the Court finding the anonymous donation scheme unconstitutional, will be fulfilled by mere disclosure of the names of bond purchasers and the parties that received the funds, without authentic data on who donated what amount to which party. Given that the bonds have to be redeemed within a 15-day window, it may still be possible for a diligent civil society to use the disclosures to match donors and parties based on the proximity between dates of purchase and redemption. The data may also help unravel whether corporate houses or individuals benefited from their donations to ruling parties at the Centre and in the States, or if the contributions were made in response to any threat of investigation and prosecution.
We did get the data though as the E-paperclip above shows. We don’t yet know the donors but the distribution is clear as it has been for some time.
Maruti 800 is an indigenous model (well, partly so now) that had government of India and Suzuki as the share holders in the company (used to be majority GOI but GOI now has less than 50% share, I think).
As if that drama was not enough, an election commissioner resigned a week back unexpectedly. As per Mahesh Langa’s report for the Hindu,
The sudden and unexpected resignation of Election Commissioner (EC) Arun Goel barely a week before the announcement of the Lok Sabha election came as a surprise to many, but insiders in the poll body have pointed out that apparent differences emerged between the Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) Rajiv Kumar and the EC during their West Bengal visit to oversee the preparations for the parliamentary elections.
According to well-placed sources, Mr. Goel refused to attend the press conference in Kolkata to brief the media about the preparations in West Bengal, which has the third largest number of parliamentary seats (42 seats) after Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra, after he reportedly differed with Mr. Kumar who addressed the media alone on March 5.
In the press briefing, the CEC did mention that Mr. Goel had returned to Delhi due to “health concerns”. However, sources close to Mr. Goel have dismissed that and maintained “he is in the pink of health”.
“He flew back to Delhi cutting short his visit in West Bengal owing to some serious differences,” the sources maintained.
However, it is not known and sources also did not elaborate further about what transpired between the two officials and their differences and exactly on which issues they differed. Mr. Goel had tenure till November 2027 and he would have become the CEC next year.
In Delhi, he attended the Lok Sabha election related meetings with Mr. Kumar at the Election Commission of India (ECI) headquarters on March 7.
However on March 8, he reportedly skipped attending a meeting between ECI brass and Union Home Secretary Ajay Kumar Bhalla regarding the election preparations and instead sent his resignation to the President of India without informing the CEC.
And reminding one of just in time delivery, the panel that appoints Election Commissioners, grossly tilted in favour of the ruling party’s government, chose a faithful as election commissioner yesterday. The Hindu Bureau reports.
Former bureaucrats Sukhbir Singh Sandhu from Punjab and Gyanesh Kumar from Kerala have been named as the new Election Commissioners by a panel chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, committee member and Congress leader Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury said on March 14.
Addressing reporters at his residence soon after the meeting ended, Mr. Chowdhury said six names came up before the panel for the selection of the two ECs and the names of Mr. Sandhu and Mr. Kumar were finalised by a majority of members of the high-powered panel.
He, however, said the Chief Justice of India should have been part of the selection panel and there was no clarity on how six names were shortlisted from over 200 candidates that are said to have come before the search committee headed by the Law Minister. [...]
"Of the six names, the names of Gyanesh Kumar and Sukhbir Singh Sandhu were finalised for appointment as election commissioners," he said.
During his tenure in the Home Ministry, Gyanesh Kumar oversaw the abrogation of Article 370.
The vacancies had come up after the retirement of Anup Chandra Pandey on February 14 and the sudden resignation of Arun Goel.
The SCI had asked the government to make the panel neutral by including the CJI—there are two government representatives and one opposition party leader at present—but the government ignored the recommendation. That is why Adhir Ranjan Chowdhary is saying that CJI should have been part of the panel.
Not sure anything can be done this close to the elections.
Farmer Protests
The Hindu Frontline (which is a progressive magazine unlike the newspaper that leans left of centre economically but not socially as much as the left expects) has focused its current issue on the ongoing farmer protests in the North. In this interview by Ashutosh Sharma, agricultural expert (what does this mean?) Devinder Sharma talks about farmer’s distress and need for the government to centre their concerns.
Ahead of the Lok Sabha election, farmers are up in arms again. Underscoring that 50 per cent of the population is engaged in farming, the Mohali-based agricultural expert Devinder Sharma says the path to realise the Prime Minister’s vision of “Sabka Saath Sabka Vikas” (Together, for everyone’s growth) passes through agriculture. In this interview, he spoke on a range of issues concerning agricultural distress. Excerpts: [...]
The National Crime Records Bureau data indicate that there has been no let-up in suicides among farmers and agricultural labourers. The BJP came to power on the promise of “Sabka Saath Sabka Vikas”. But its promise to double farmers’ income by 2022 has not happened. What is your view on the government’s efforts in this direction since 2014?
When the government announced in 2016 that it would double farmers’ income over the next five years, the question I was often asked was what was the income of farmers that the government had promised to double. Quoting Economic Survey 2016, my reply was that the average farming income in 17 States, roughly half the country, was barely Rs.20,000 a year. In other words, farming families were living on less than Rs.1,700 a month. This was not even enough to rear a cow for farmers in Punjab.
Subsequently, the Situational Assessment Survey for Agricultural Households, presented in 2021, showed that farm household income in India was Rs.10,218 a month. In fact, farm income was computed to be lower than the monthly wages of MGNREGA workers. Income from farming alone (not including non-farm activities) was a paltry Rs.27 a day. Farming was at the bottom of the pyramid.
With farm household expenditure being lower than that of rural households, the latest Household Consumption Expenditure Survey 2022-23 also reiterates the precarious condition in which farming as a profession finds itself.
With such low farm incomes, indebtedness in the sector is growing. It is like a serial death dance on the farm. With incomes remaining static or on the decline, there are no signs that indicate any lessening of the tragedy on the farm. Whereas it should be clear that to realise the Prime Minister’s vision of “Sabka Saath Sabka Vikas”, the pathway is through agriculture. Given that roughly 50 per cent of the country’s population is engaged in agriculture, there is no other way than to enhance farmers’ income. We cannot leave farmers behind.
The farmers are asking for guaranteed pricing (that is MSP) and procurement of diverse range of crops (not just wheat and pulses as it now is) from the government. Utsa Patnaik writes that Farmers’ protest: It’s a battle against servitude
While the geopolitics of control over oil is well known, the geopolitics of control over other primary products has hardly been discussed. During formal colonial control, the metropolitan countries paid nothing for their imports from Southern lands (imports in excess of the manufactures dumped on the latter) because they used local taxes, raised from farmers and artisans, to “pay” for the export goods sourced from the very same farmers and artisans. This meant that only theformof the taxes changed, from cash to export goods. Local producers were not actually paid and were being taxed out of their products, but they did not know it.
Without direct fiscal control, the industrial North can now no longer get goods completely free, but they nevertheless ensure that they pay only a pittance, by continuous pressure on Southern countries to devalue their currencies. At Independence, Rs.3 bought one US dollar, while today Rs.83 buys one US dollar, that is, the purchasing power of the rupee is less than 4 per cent of its initial level. Similarly the exchange rate against the British pound has declined from Rs.15 to Rs.100 over the same period.
Let no one imagine this has anything to do with the demand and supply of currencies; it is the result of active management. As long as it suited Britain, since through direct control it could take all of India’s global exchange earnings, the pound sterling-rupee rate was kept steady between narrow limits for over a century. With political independence, it has suited the industrial North to manipulate continuous devaluation, not only with respect to India but other Southern countries as well, so that the average unit dollar price of the goods they import have been declining steadily, ensuring high average living standards for their populations.
Southern populations are constantly being told that they are poor and backward, to the extent that their intellectuals have become conceptually blind to the wealth of Southern resources and uncritically peddle the fallacious and self-serving trade theories developed in the era of imperialism. The most influential theory on which later trade theories are based has been David Ricardo’s incorrect theory of comparative cost advantage, which blithely assumed that all countries could produce all goods, including all crops, to improperly draw the inference that countries specialising according to their cost advantage would necessarily benefit from trade. No theory could be more untrue because its premise is untrue; what is the cost of production of sugarcane in Germany or of coffee in the US? Since for climatic reasons output there was zero in the past, is zero today, and will remain zero in future, unit production cost cannot even be defined for a large range of crops, and there is always a one-sided demand on the South to satisfy the yawning gaps in the North’s consumption basket.
Far from leading to mutual benefit, what we saw in history is trade at gunpoint and conquest in order to obtain tropical goods completely free of cost as the product-equivalent of taxes, leading to sharp decline in the nutritional standard of Southern populations and periodic devastating famines. By the eve of Independence, the annual post-trade grain output retained in India for consumption had fallen to 137 kg per capita compared to 200 kg in year 1900, an average decline of 600 calories daily per head, implying an even greater decline for the labouring poor.
The present Northern pressure on the South to supply the former’s manifold consumption demands has intensified greatly compared to colonial times, because the sharp reduction in air freights, especially since the 1970s, means that unlike in the past, perishable products (fresh vegetables, fruits, flowers, fish) can be and are being flown in 8 to 15 hours from South Asia to Europe and the US, and in an even shorter time from countries in Africa and Latin America.
To a substantial extent the industrial North has already achieved its aim of reconfiguring land use in the Global South to serve its own needs; dozens of smaller countries have been pressurized already into unwisely giving up their domestic procurement, stocking and distribution systems on the argument that their “food security” lies in importing grain from the North and that they would gain from specialising in the non-grain crops the North demands—and Ricardo’s fallacious theory is always invoked to justify this in international fora.
But what is wrong with such a pattern of international specialisation, some might ask. What is wrong is that first, basic food security is far too important a matter to be left to dependence on the interests and whims of Northern countries. After the debacle of the second Gulf war, the US quadrupled the diversion of its grain to ethanol production over a few years starting 2002, followed by European countries; global foodgrain prices spiked in 2008, leading to food riots in 37 countries that had already become import-dependent.
She is arguing that the Global North through exchange rates and global trade imbalance has too much control over the production of the Global South and the farmers’ protests and demands are against that—against neo imperialism in the realm of agriculture.
Utsa Patnaik is Professor Emeritus, Jawaharlal Nehru University.
Vaishna Roy’s editorial is about: India’s war against its own farmers
Iron nails in the tarmac, concrete blocks, concertina wire, barricades, sandbags. Rubber bullets and drones dropping teargas shells. Demolition notices pasted on homes. The Ambala DSP’s threat to cancel passports. This is nothing short of a declaration of war. Is it against an invading enemy? No, it is against farmers demanding state guarantees.
Are India’s farmers doing something unprecedented? No, as this goes to press, farmers’ protests are raging across Europe, in Brussels, Madrid, Cardiff, Warsaw, Bordeaux. Farmers have parked tractors outside parliament buildings, driven into city squares, burnt bales of straw. But not one country has prevented farmers from entering their capital the way India has.
This catastrophised and ferocious reaction to citizens who express unhappiness against the government has now become distinctive of the Indian state. It is a naked admission of the government’s extreme fear of its own people, fear of the potency of peaceful protest.
Unequal Offer of Citizenship
While the government is going to physical war against farmers (of all religions), it is building up legal tools to attack Muslims. They have, in the wake of upcoming elections, notified the rules for Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) of 2019, which had been put on ice after the widespread protests against it in 2019. The Hindu Frontline has eight stories on the subject. Let me give the summary from the Frontline staff.
On March 11, the Ministry of Home Affairs notified the Citizenship (Amendment) Rules 2024, officially putting into effect the contentious Citizenship Amendment Act just weeks before the 2024 Lok Sabha election. The Act, commonly referred to as the CAA, received Presidential assent on December 12, 2019. It offers citizenship to illegal immigrants belonging to six specific religious groups—Hindus, Parsis, Jains, Buddhists, Christians, and Sikhs—from Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Bangladesh, countries where Muslims form the majority.
According to the CAA, migrants who entered India by December 31, 2014, and faced religious persecution or feared such persecution in their country of origin are eligible for citizenship. However, critics argue that the Act, masked under the guise of providing asylum, effectively discriminates on the basis of religion. This bias is evident in its exclusion of not only Muslims but also minority Muslim groups like Hazaras in Afghanistan and Ahmadiyas or Shias in Pakistan. Additionally, the Act overlooks other persecuted communities such as Sri Lankan Tamils and Myanmar’s Rohingyas.
While the Citizenship Act of 1955 has undergone nine amendments, none have sparked widespread protests like the 2019 amendment, which introduced the “singular threat of granting citizenship based on religion”. The discriminatory nature of the legislation prompted nationwide opposition from students, NGOs, opposition parties, and civil society organisations. Mass protests, epitomised by the Shaheen Bagh movement, emerged against its implementation.
Even four years later, the government’s decision continues to face resistance and backlash. The Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) has petitioned the Supreme Court to halt the CAA’s enforcement. The timing of the government’s action just before the election, coupled with its contentious amendments, raises suspicions about whether the majority-led government is using the CAA as a diversionary tactic from issues such as electoral bonds or as part of its vote-bank politics.
The link above takes you to the stories. However, this YouTube video featuring Abhinav Chandrachud lists the issues with CAA in thirteen minutes (along with the history of how the question of citizenship in India was itself tangled up in an anti-Muslim bias though not explicitly stated). The story starts in 1947-48 in the wake of partition, large scale ethnic cleansing, and voluntary migration.
Maldives
Indian Troops Pull Out; Defense Alliance with China Strengthened
Meera Srinivasan reports for the Hindu that Indian troops have started to pull out from Maldives.
Indian troops stationed in the Maldives have begun withdrawing from the island nation, its defence authorities said, in line with President Mohamed Muizzu’s ‘India out’ promise to his supporters.
“We can confirm that the Indian troop withdrawal is underway,” the Maldives National Defence Force (MNDF) said in a statement to news agency AFP on Tuesday, confirming the development.
Last month, the Ministry of External Affairs said a technical team from India had reached the Maldives to replace the troops that were stationed to operate the India-gifted aircraft and choppers. The deployment of a technical crew indicated that Male and New Delhi had reached a compromise after many rounds of bilateral discussion following Mr. Muizzu’s relentless demand that Indian troops leave the island nation.
According to local media reports in the Maldives, some 25 Indian troops deployed in the southernmost atoll of Addu have left the archipelago ahead of the March 10 deadline. The remaining military personnel are expected to pull out in batches, before May 10, according to an earlier announcement from the Maldives Foreign Ministry.
The move comes even as the Maldives seeks to strengthen strategic ties with China, as was agreed during President Muizzu’s state visit in January this year. Last week, the Maldives Defence Ministry signed a pact with China, seeking military assistance and “stronger bilateral ties”. The agreement would enable the Maldives to receive non-lethal military equipment and military training from China, Mr. Muizzu said at a public rally soon after, adding that it would strengthen the Maldives’ “independence and autonomy”, according to the Male-based publication The Edition.
Mariyath Mohamed reports on the same news for the Edition (Maldives).
Indian military personnel stationed in Gan, Addu to run operations of the helicopters gifted by Indian government to Maldives have left the country.
Approximately 25 Indian military personnel were engaged in the operation of the helicopter in Addu.
An MNDF Media Official confirmed that, as agreed, the Indian military troops left the country ahead of March 10.
The helicopters will, from now on, be operated by civilian experts from India who have been transferred to the Maldives for the purpose.
The official further assured that additional Indian military personnel stationed elsewhere in Maldives will also be leaving on schedule, currently announced to be by May 10.
Governments of Maldives and India reached an agreement where the military personnel stationed in Maldives to operate these aircrafts used in medical evacuations and search and rescue operations will be replaced with civilian experts from India.
The government has previously stated that a total of 89 Indian military personnel are in the Maldives.
Disabled Community in the Maldives
Muawiyath Mohamed Didi has an op-ed for the Edition on the disabled community in Maldives.
The disabled community in the Maldives faces numerous challenges, many of which stem from societal attitudes and infrastructural barriers. Accessibility remains a critical issue, with public spaces, transportation, and buildings frequently not equipped to accommodate disabled individuals. This lack of accessibility restricts their mobility and participation in social, educational, and professional spheres, effectively sidelining them from active involvement in their community.
Social stigma and misconceptions about disability further exacerbate the challenges faced by the disabled community in the Maldives. Disabled individuals are often perceived as dependent or incapable, leading to their exclusion from decision-making processes and community life. This marginalisation is deeply ingrained in societal attitudes, where misconceptions about disability lead to the belief that disabled individuals are less capable of contributing meaningfully to society. As a result, they are often overlooked for leadership roles or meaningful participation in community initiatives, perpetuating a cycle of exclusion and invisibility.
This marginalisation is more pronounced for disabled women and girls, who face compounded discrimination due to the intersection of gender and disability. They are often relegated to the margins of society, their potential and aspirations overlooked. In many cases, disabled women and girls are subject to a dual set of stereotypes - being perceived as weak and dependent because of their gender and incapable due to their disability. This double discrimination results in them being denied opportunities for education, employment, and participation in social and political life, further entrenching their marginalisation.
Moreover, the lack of representation and visibility of disabled women and girls in media, literature, and public discourse contributes to their invisibility and reinforces harmful stereotypes. Their stories and experiences are often absent or misrepresented, leading to a lack of awareness and understanding of their unique challenges.
Women in Maldives
Malika Shahid writes about the challenges facing women in Maldives.
Statistics indicate that a lower percentage of women enter the workforce than those that engage in education.
Even then, in 2022, 65 percent of civil servants aged 20 to 49 were female, underscoring women's active participation in public service. Furthermore, 75 percent of teachers in the Maldives are women, reinforcing their influential role in shaping the future through education. However, these positive trends sharply contrast with the limited presence of women in managerial and leadership positions.
A stark gender imbalance in managerial positions persists, with only 23 percent of female representation against 77 percent occupied by males. This underrepresentation extends to the political sphere, where the Maldives' Cabinet comprises only 3 female Ministers out of 22 ministerial positions. Similarly, in the judiciary, while 30 female judges preside over courts, they are outnumbered by 154 male counterparts.
These figures underscore the urgent need for targeted interventions to break down barriers and ensure secure and formal work arrangements, social protection, and safety nets for women.
Nepal
Alliance changes in Nepal
As I mentioned in comments last week, the governing alliance in Nepal has changed once again with Pushpa Kamal Dahal winning the trust vote in Nepali Parliament. Anil Giri reports.
In a House session high on drama, Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal on Wednesday won his third consecutive vote of confidence in just 14 months. There were also clear indications of diminishing trust in him, compared to the results of the two earlier confidence votes.
After ending his year-long partnership with the Nepali Congress, Dahal sought a vote of confidence on Wednesday and secured a majority. However, the level of support has notably declined. Dahal had obtained 268 votes in January 2023 followed by 172 in March same year. On Wednesday, he secured just 157 votes—and that too with some difficulty.
Dahal received 157 votes in the 275-member Parliament; 110 lawmakers voted against him while a member abstained. A total of 268 lawmakers were present in Wednesday’s meeting of the House of Representatives. The prime minister required at least 138 votes to win the trust motion.
Ahead of Wednesday’s vote of confidence, some leaders from the ruling alliance expressed their dissatisfaction at the recent political changes and Dahal’s repeated changes of stance over the last 14 months. This suggests Dahal has a difficult path ahead, with the pressing challenge of managing his coalition partners and their frustrations.
Only a few parties in the ruling alliance, like the Rastriya Swatantra Party, and some independent lawmakers supported the prime minister’s bid without putting forth critical views.
CPN-UML Chairman KP Oli supported the bid and asked the main opposition, the Nepali Congress, to vote in favour of Dahal. Oli also extended an offer for talks with Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba from the same podium. In response, Dahal went as far as challenging both the Congress and UML to forge their own alliance.
Nepalis Dying in Russia’s War on Ukraine
The Kathmandu Post reports that seven more Nepalis have died in Russia’s war on Ukraine.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Thursday confirmed the deaths of seven more Nepalis serving in the Russian army.
Issuing a statement, the ministry identified the deceased as Purna Bahadur Gurung of Dhading, Nabin Shahi of Jajarkot, Padam Bahadur Ghimire of Udayapur, Ganga Ram Adhikari of Jhapa, Jit Bahadur BK of Baglung, Sanjay KC of Banke, and Sundar Moktan of Rasuwa.
The government has prioritised bringing home all Nepalis serving in the Russian army and has been making diplomatic efforts for the same, the ministry said.
“Likewise, the Russian government has been requested again to compensate the families of all those killed in the war, bear the medical expenses of those injured and repatriate all Nepalis serving in the army,” the statement further reads.
With this, the death toll of the Nepalis serving in the Russian army has reached 21.
Earlier, the government had released the names of 14 nationals who were killed in the battle. Over 200 family members have registered separate complaints at the Department of Consular Affairs for the rescue of their relatives serving in the Russian army. Nepal has already made clear that it does not allow its citizens not to be recruited into any foreign army other than those it has signed bilateral agreements with, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement earlier.
In the last couple of weeks, the Hindu has been reporting on several Indians conned into traveling to Russia by labour contractors/middle men with promises of work away from frontline and possibilities of migration to Scandinavia. They were then forced to fight on the frontlines. A couple have died so far. Seems to be a South Asian problem.
Being Dalit in Nepal
The Post has a video interview of Dr. Mitra Priyar, a Dalit Rights Activist that might interest you. It is in English.
That is it for today. Until next Friday, everyone. Stay safe. Be well. Take care.
May the producers across the world struggling for sustenance get not just sustenance but freedom from their daily woes. And may we be able to work in support of that struggle.