The battle between democratic freedoms and despotic oppression worldwide is intensifying. As we saw here last month, more people will vote for national governments in 2024 than in any year ever.
Bizarrely, many American voters seem happy to vote for Donald Trump, who regularly declares his admiration for despots including Vladimir Putin of Russia, China’s Xi Jinping, North Korea’s Kim Jong-Un and “Viktor Orbán, the strong leader of Turkey” – by which he presumably means Viktor Orbán of Hungary and President Erdogan of Turkey.
Two developments last week sharpened concerns for American democracy. The first was Trump inviting Hungary’s Prime Minister Orbán to Mar-a-Lago for private talks. The second was John Kelly revealing that Trump’s long held adulation of Adolf Hitler caused heated exchanges between them.
Kelly is a former Marine Corps general who was Trump’s homeland security secretary for several months in 2017 before becoming chief of staff.
So how destructive would it be if a returned President Trump emulated Viktor Orbán? Is it possible to assess this with actual data?
Yes, it is. We can compare life in Hungary with the other 37 advanced countries comprising the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
Democratic values trashed
The democracy index published annually by the Economist Intelligence Unit ranks 167 nations on democratic principles and civil liberties.
The first edition in 2006 ranked Hungary 38th globally and 28th in the OECD. Not bad. That was after Orbán had served his first stint as PM, from July 1998 to May 2002, but before his current term, which started in May 2010. By 2017, world ranking had tumbled to the 50s, where it has stayed since.
Among Orbán’s highly repressive moves was declaring a state of emergency in May 2022 which authorises him to rule by decree.
Hungary now ranks 35th in the OECD, with only Colombia, Mexico and Turkey scoring lower. See green chart, below.
Corruption steadily worsening
In 2009, before Orbán resumed the top job, Hungary ranked 48th out of 180 nations on perceptions of corruption, according to Transparency International. Since then, ranking tumbled to 66th in 2017, 73rd in 2021, and to 76th last year.
Transparency International wrote in January that Hungary is the most corrupt country in the European Union.
Accurate information suppressed
In 2012, Hungary fell 17 rungs to 40th place on the global ranking on press freedom after Orbán’s regime passed a law giving the ruling party direct control over the media. That’s according to the World Press Freedom Index published by Reporters Without Borders (RSF).
Hungary’s global press freedom ranking has fallen since. It is now 72nd.
Worst covid death rate
If the first responsibility of government is to keep citizens safe, Orbán failed miserably through the covid pandemic. Only two OECD members copped more than 4,000 deaths per million – Czechia with 4,053 and Hungary with a staggering 5,105. See grey and blue chart, below.
Life expectancy down
Hungarians can now expect to survive just 74.5 years, which ranks 34th in the OECD, and is six years shorter than most other Europeans. Five years ago, this was 19 months longer.
Coincidentally, life expectancy in the USA also declined by 19 months during Trump’s four years, 2017 to 2020.
Losing citizens to preventable disease, suicide, hunger, exposure and deaths in custody are sacrifices dictators seem willing to make.
Murder rates down
One rare positive of Orbán’s regime is the reduction in violent crime, including intentional homicides, which contrasts dramatically with Trump’s America.
Since 2014, following Trump’s routine calls for physical assaults against political opponents, the murder rate per 100,000 people has risen from 4.40 to 6.81. The comparable change in Hungary is from 1.48 down to 0.77.
Economic growth down
Hungary’s economic growth under Orbán has been poor relative to both Europe and the world. Of the four quarters of 2023, Hungary only registered positive quarterly growth in gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter. Its annual GDP growth was negative or zero in all four quarters.
We can also examine inflation, budget deficits, government debt, exports and the trade balance – all of which are weak relative to other nations.
Positives: jobs and wages
Those wondering why Hungarians support Orbán given these poor outcomes may find an answer in the employment data. The trajectory of the jobless under Orbán has been better than the average for Europe and the OECD. So have wages for low income workers.
The question then for Hungarians is whether these positives outweigh the manifest negatives.
Americans must ponder the same question, and also ask if Trump will deliver any positives at all.
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This is an edited version of an article published today in Independent Australia, available in full for free here:
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/trump--orbn-the-deceptive-allure-of-strong-men-in-power,18430