Something’s happening here. Hope Springs from Field PAC volunteers are seeing it at the doors. The “great unanswered question,” as one voter called it, has been resolved. And, to repeat a word, it’s a relief.
Sinema's retirement will have important ramifications for the 2024 election and the future of the Senate. The race to succeed her will now likely pit progressive Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego against Kari Lake, a Republican close to former President Donald Trump who narrowly lost Arizona's 2022 gubernatorial election. Either prospective successor would mark a notable departure from the more centrist Sinema, thereby shifting the Senate's ideological makeup. And given Sinema's support for the filibuster, her retirement could also lead to fundamental changes in how the Senate functions.
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Even without Sinema, the Arizona race has all the makings of a toss-up contest, and given the unusual circumstances, it's not totally certain whether Gallego or Lake — who's led Lamb by around 30 points in recent Republican primary polls — might benefit more from her departure. However, early polling suggests Gallego might have the edge here. In surveys since October that compared a prospective Gallego-Lake matchup with or without Sinema in the race, Gallego led Lake by an average of 1 percentage point with Sinema running, but Gallego's edge grew to an average of 3 points over Lake if Sinema wasn't an option.
This holds true for the presidential race, as well. One of our (male) volunteers said he expects a “knock down, drag out fight” here in Arizona. Which is why we are out knocking on doors, talking to voters and collecting data that could very well make the difference in November.
Arizona is the only state where there’s a broad consensus that it’s a toss-up state in both the Electoral College and the (now open) Senate race. Our volunteers and organizers there have set a goal for themselves of 1 Million Doors Knocked before Labor Day. We’ve already knocked on more than 32% of the households in the state, and hope to increase that, as well.
Yes, they got ambition! But, mostly, there’s just an intense desire to win in Arizona, to cement its status as the ultimate swing state. And there is a determination to prove that 2020 wasn’t a fluke, that Trump really did lose in Arizona and, heh!, let’s do it again!
Winning is not only contagious, it’s also the ultimate vindication.
Still, Arizona remains one of “the most unpredictable Senate race on the 2024 map.” “Arizona's races have become among the closest-watched - and most expensive - in the country in recent years.” Arizona is one of a few states to trend Democratic since the time of Trump. “While it is still a toss-up, states like Arizona and Georgia are being pushed from ‘a reddish shade of purple to a bluish shade,’ ... because ‘big metro areas like Phoenix and Atlanta are getting bluer.’”
229 volunteers came out to knock on doors for our second 2024 Arizona canvass in the eastern and southern suburbs of Phoenix and east of Tucson (in the 1st, 2nd, 4th and 6th Congressional Districts).
I meant to point this out last week, but i forgot. We are now knocking on doors in the southern suburbs of Phoenix in the 2nd Congressional District. It’s a big red district (takes up most of the upper eastern part of the state, but it wraps around the southern suburbs of the biggest city in the state. Over the winter months, grass-roots volunteers started to ask themselves in this was a district that could defy expectations. One of the reasons why we did this is because there is now a more concerted effort to register and mobilize the Native American population in Arizona, a large part of which reside in AZ-02.
According to Wikipedia,
The district includes 12 Native American reservations including the Hualapai, Havasupai, Hopi, Navajo, San Carlos Apache, and White Mountain Apache people. Twenty-two percent of the district's citizens were Native American.
Despite being a red district, in 2020 it supported Biden 55 - 44% (and Clinton by 50 - 45% in 2016) but is has a Cook PVI of R+6. But there are two other reasons why Hope Springs volunteers wanted to start knocking on doors here. First of all, the incumbent is running in his first re-election effort, and that’s the time when they are most vulnerable. Secondly, Democrats have a candidate in Jonathan Nez that seems like a perfect fit, both for increasing voter registrations among the Native American population and turning them out in the Fall. Nez is the former Navajo Nation President.
Our work, of course, is in the suburbs, where there isn’t much of a concentrated Native American population. The primary (and there is a Democratic primary for this seat) is July 30.
As of this date, Ruben Gallego remains the likely Democratic nominee but the Statutory Filing Period is from March 9, 2024 to April 8, 2024. So it is possible (but not probable) that another Democrat could file to run for this (now) open seat.
Hope Springs volunteers knocked on 16,419 doors on Saturday. Volunteers talked to 1,131 voters, and 746 voters answered questions from at least part of the Issues Survey.
Border Security was the Number 1 issue for the Arizonans we talked to on Saturday. The Economy was the #2 issue voters raised. Housing Issues was third, mostly centered around pricing, availability (several voters mentioned being locked out by all cash offers) and Insurance costs.
Among the Arizonans we talked to Biden’s Job Approval was at 39%; 17% expressed some measure of Disapproval. 12% of the voters who responded Approved of the job Sen. Sinema was doing while 38% expressed Disapproval. If you don’t realize it, Sinema’s approval rating has risen (sharply) and disapproval rating fallen since she announced her retirement. There seemed to be a little bit of bitterness attached before she did so.
It is important to remember that we are knocking on the doors of Democrats and unaffiliated voters. We also ask about whether voters Approve of likely Democratic nominee Ruben Gallego. 53% of the voters we talked to had a positive impression of the Congressman, and there were voters who mention Gallego’s experience as a Marine. So his story is getting out there. 54% of the voters we talked to thought Gov. Hobbs was doing a good job, 7% said they disapproved of the job she was doing.
Hope Springs from Field PAC started knocking on doors last week in a grassroots effort to prepare the 2024 Electoral Battleground in what has been called the First and Second Rounds of a traditional Five Round Canvass. We are talking to Democrats and unaffiliated voters with a systematic approach that reminds them not only that Democrats care, but Democrats are determined to deliver the best government possible to all Americans.
Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing, voter registration (and follow-up), GOTV and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hopemobilization
Hope Springs from Field understands that volunteer to voter personal interactions are critical. Knocking on doors has repeatedly been found to be the most successful tactic to get voters to cast a ballot and that is the goal of what we do.
We registered 6 new voters and re-registered 27 voters who updated their addresses (or updated their voter registration to participate in the Active Early Voting List — the latter usually skews the number higher). We differentiate between the new voters and re-registering voters because brand new voters are often ignored by campaigns and we hope to compensate for that somewhat by having volunteers send them post cards before the election and they will also receive robocalls thanking them for registering.
In Arizona, we had 92 voters fill out Constituent Service Request forms. We send completed CSRs to Democratic elected officials responsible for the requested functions, but if the appropriate office is held by a Republican, we still send it along. For Democrats, though, we encourage them to reach out immediately to the voter who filled out the Constituent Service Request forms and let them know they are working on the issue. This credit-taking is enormously valuable to the Democratic office-holder.
Two voters filled out Incident Reports, as witnesses to voter intimidation in prior elections.
We knock on the doors of Democratic and Independent voters. At every door, we leave a piece of “show the flag” lit, something that tells them we were there and hopefully reinforces the Democratic brand. The lit focuses on the things voters told us were important to them last fall, aiming to appeal to every voter.
But the main focus of our canvassing is the Issues Survey, asking voters for their input and concerns. Voter responses to the questionnaire are entered into VAN and made available to all Democratic candidates who use VAN in the state after the primary. Creating this kind of data isn’t done with a specific goal in mind but has the purpose of engaging voters and creating a dataset that any Democratic candidate can use in opposition to a Republican.
Hope Springs has targeted states that have competitive Senate races and/or the Electoral College in 2024, as well as Congressional Districts that are remapped in ways that offer opportunities or vulnerabilities for Democrats next year (specifically those where a Republican won a Congressional District that voted for Biden in 2022). There is a lot of work to be done! Especially since we have had to expand the map this year.
By starting early, and aiming towards super-compliance with some really, really onerous new voter regulations, Hope Springs from Field seeks to undermine that strategy, while informing voters about the new laws and regulations aimed at them.
We are also — this being an election year — adding the Post Cards to New Voters component back into our Voter Outreach, both New Voters we find at their doors as well as New Voters we target in the Voter File. Several of our Arizona organizers are also talking to Native American groups about replicating our Voter Matching service that Hope Springs provides for Black Churches. This is really dependent upon the Native American tribes, though. It’s a big year. There’s lots to be done, and, hopefully, we won’t have to suspect in-person voter contact because of a heatwave this year.
Our biggest expense is the Voter File. But it is also a fixed cost. That won’t change as we raise and spend more money. Printing literature is our second largest cost. Printing and mailing our our Post Cards to New Voters is our third cost and paying the fees for ActBlue is the smallest of our monthly costs.
Hope Springs is a seat-of-the-pants grassroots-driven operation. We don’t have employees but we realize that to formalize and professionalize this effort that will have to change. We spent less than $70,000 last year because we raised less than $70,000. But what we have raised is thanks to you!
If you are able to support our efforts to protect Democratic voters, especially in minority communities, expand the electorate, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection, please help:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hopemobilization
If you would rather send a check, you can follow that link for our mailing address at the bottom of the page. Thank you for your support. This work depends upon you!