While it took a little time to emerge we can now see the shape of the Russian propaganda effort post the Crocus City Hall attack. Blame Ukraine and establish a connection to ISIS-K.
This BBC report shows this in action pretty well.
This is of course to be expected, but how hard and fast the threads of the conspiracy theory is being pushed indicates this is the line that will be vigorously pursued. How well it works both internally and in our situation how much the pro-Russian faction here picks up on it we will have to see.
My own conspiracy theory is that this was not a false flag as some will suspect. However the response will be part of contingency planning especially in light of the public American warning, the delay in official response was merely getting the correct pieces plugged in to the correct slots.
Any good propaganda effort has to cover a lot of ground and intersperse some observed facts, with some speculation, with perhaps some fabrication and to in this case spin everything in the most favorable light. The very first thing that they needed to do was to temper the massive security failure. The announced quick apprehension of the perpetrators and support group goes to that. Also you will notice that the American warning is being shaded to a specific point that can then be claimed to have been thwarted. If the generalized warning and intelligence worked that way we would be in a much safer world. So now we get to the crux of the push towards Ukraine, apprehension attempting to cross the border. We will of course have to take Moscow’s word on that. I know I would absolutely attempt to run to a contested border through military and security forces. Not. It is important to understand however for that to be vaguely plausible Ukraine would have had to be expecting them and to have been involved in the planning. If you think about it for just a moment you can see what a massive coup it would be for Ukraine to capture them and turn them over. As the conspiracy theory develops I wont be surprised if that isn’t implied it was part of the plan. At this point it doesn’t really matter all the truth behind any of it. Is this just a round up of the “usual suspects”, are these actually the perpetrators and were captured headed south towards Ukraine. It doesn’t matter as people will fill in their own connections nudged by the narrative they hear.
But it is important to understand that this would be an insane move by Ukraine, something they have not shown to even contemplate. You can bet every intelligence service in the West has the gain turned up to 11 on the listening devices. The last thing any of the allies want is another source of conflict. While ISIS has some deep resentment towards Russia and ISIS-K in particularly so, It is an umbrella network of factions some of whom have as deep a resentment of the West. The last thing the US wants is ISIS factional rivalries to assert themselves in a game of one-upmanship as has happened before. Ukraine is much to sophisticated and intelligent to provide even a hint of an Archduke Ferdinand moment to reignite the Global war on terror.
I’m not going to go much further. This is part of the dilemma of our time, how much to say that doesn’t amplify or give ideas that could harm. I am very worried of how this line could develop and morph, more here at home than abroad. Already the reporting is basically that Russia caught the guys, when recent history shows Russia a less than trustworthy narrator. You have to dig for nuance. However we are near the start of a conspiracy theory and the best time to counter it.
I suggest the first line should be The Biden Administration warned them. Just as Biden warned the world about the Russian invasion and the administration warned Israel about Hamas. Friend or Foe the Biden Administration takes seriously the duty to warn and so is rebuilding trust.