There’s a dramatic difference between what you read on the Internet and what you hear at the door. But only one of those things consistently drives electoral outcomes, and it is what voters tell Hope Springs from Field PAC volunteers at their doors.
I’ve done campaign consulting for decades, and in almost every election cycle, some staffer or consultant will ask me, “Why are you still knocking on doors?” It’s simple. Voters, especially swing state voters, give you the real measure of the electorate that will decide elections. It provides context. For example, canvassing was how we learned that the term “Reproductive Freedom” was more appealing to voters in Ohio and Kansas. “Reproductive Rights” not as attention grabbing there. The language of the coasts didn’t work as well in the heartland. And it was the concept of Freedom that really allowed Democratic and Republican women to unite in amending their state constitutions to enshrine their individual, fundamental Rights in Kansas and Ohio.
Language matters, but the language of the voters, not the interpreters. And you learn that language not by polls (where the language is determined by interpreters) but at the doors.
You may have read that, before the State of the Union address, “Dozens of protesters blocked Pennsylvania Avenue in Northwest Washington along Biden’s route on his way to delivering the address.” Of course, the president didn’t see them (his route took him away from them), and his presence may not even have been the point. But they wanted to be part of the debate, part of the conversation about the State of the Union address.
And maybe they were. But no voter we have talked to over the past four weeks has brought up Gaza. Not late last year (in Ohio or the other states we canvassed in after October 7th), or over the last four weekends in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina or Texas. Several voters, both Democrats and unaffiliated, mentioned U.S. support for Israel positively in Arizona and at least one other voter mentioned the hostages taken by Hamas. But, despite efforts by the Free Palestine organizers to brand Joe Biden, not a single voter mentioned the concept of genocide. It’s increasingly clear that genocide won’t be a topic in this election for President. From voters at least.
That doesn’t mean that there aren’t activists who won’t try to change that. There’s real money behind the effort to bring Gaza to the fore. But the farther we get away from the October 7th attack and its aftermath, the less that it will garner attention from the electorate. Pro-Palestinian activists really need for Joe Biden to lose in November — and those who don’t want to see that happen need to understand that we won’t change their minds. We have to focus our efforts on mobilizing otherwise infrequent voters and expand the electorate, a general requirement for Democrats to win.
But even if genocide (and i wholeheartedly reject the assertion that Joe Biden or the United States has engaged in genocide) isn’t driving voter opinion in these Swing States, Joe Biden isn’t fairing as well. And there’s an analogy here that seems to be in effect right now. In 2021, Joe Biden’s approval ratings fell markedly after the U.S. completed its treaty obligations to pull our soldiers out of Afghanistan in 2021. In every state, in August we saw Biden approval ratings slip significantly. Some people would raise the issue, but it was really obvious when you saw the effect on his approval.
In Arizona, Biden’s Approval at the doors was 47% on November 18, 2023. Less than 5 months later, on March 2nd, it was 34% — a loss of 13 percentage points.
In Florida, Biden’s Approval at the doors was 52% on August 26, 2023. More than six months later, on March 2nd, it was 43% — a drop of 9 percentage points.
Remember, we aren’t knocking on the doors of purely Republican households. Democratic doors and those of unaffiliated voters. So about a third of the electorate is left out.
In Georgia, Biden’s Approval at the doors was 51% on October 28, 2023. Almost five months later, on March 9th, it was 44%. That’s a slip of 7 percentage points.
In Nevada, Biden’s Approval at the doors was 49% on October 28, 2023. Five months later, on March 23, it was 44%, a 5 point drop.
And in North Carolina, Biden’s Approval at the doors was 51% on August 26, 2023. Almost seven months later, it was 39%. That’s a loss of 12 percentage points.
Hope Springs from Field PAC began knocking on doors again on March 2nd in a grassroots-led effort to prepare the Electoral Battleground with what has been called the First and Second Rounds of a traditional Five Round Canvass. We are taking those efforts to the doors of Democrats and unaffiliated voters with a systematic approach that reminds them not only that Democrats care, but Democrats are determined to deliver the best government possible to all Americans.
Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing, voter registration (and follow-up) and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hopemobilization2024
Hope Springs from Field understands that repeated face to face interactions are critical. And we are among those who believe that Democrats didn’t do as well in the 2020 Congressional races as expected because we didn’t knock on doors — and we didn’t register new voters (while Republicans dud). We are returning to the old school basics: repeated contacts, repeated efforts to remind them of protocols, meeting them were they are. Mentoring those who need it (like first time and newly registered voters). Reminding, reminding, reminding, and then chasing down those voters whose ballots need to be (and can be) cured.
I was talking last week to a fellow (old) field organizer. He’s a little bit older than me, in a very Blue state, looking for signs of hope in the November election. He’s also an Obama alum, and among those who are disappointed by what they see from the Biden re-election campaign. It’s a different era, different candidates with different strengths and weaknesses. “Tell me this isn’t a lost cause,” he asked.
Of course not! Biden and Democrats in general have a secret weapon this year, i reassured him. Reproductive Freedom is driving voters in expected and surprising ways. Not just in Ohio, not just in states where there have been Constitutional Amendments. In the special election last month in NY-03, we didn’t find that many voters voicing Reproductive Rights as their Most Urgent Concern, or even a significant number of single issue Abortion voters. But even if we didn’t hear that much about Abortion during the quick campaign, when we were doing Election Day GOTV, one of the reasons voters gave us when we found them on Election Day was the importance of electing pro-choice Democrats — even those who didn’t really think of Suozzi as a pro-choice Democrat! He was better than the “other Democrat” who considered herself “pro-life.”
The results on the same day in Pennsylvania’s 140th Legislative District was equally reassuring:
What I heard from voters is that Bucks County residents need help supporting their families, want control over their own bodies, and ensure they have the ability to chart their own paths in life
Jim Prokopiak said. Here’s the electoral reality. This presidential election will be determined in the suburbs, and the single most important issue driving voters in the suburbs is Reproductive Freedom. Period.
As of March 16th (the last date we have final data for), Hope Springs volunteers have had Issues discussions with 7,689 voters in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Texas (Nevada was an addition this past weekend). But we have found 1,806 Abortion voters in that mix. That’s in addition to the 150,113 Abortion single issue voters Hope Springs from Field volunteers had found over the last two years — when Dobbs had put Roe v Wade on the map again. And Reproductive Rights seems to be a double pump issue — Democrats are doing all the right things to appeal to suburban voters here, while Republicans continue to go out of their way to make it worse for themselves. It’s the silent MAGA killer.
Hope Springs has targeted states that have competitive Senate races and/or the Electoral College in 2024, as well as Congressional Districts that are remapped in ways that offer opportunities or vulnerabilities for Democrats next year (specifically those where a Republican won a Congressional District that voted for Biden in 2022). There is a lot of work to be done! Especially since we have had to expand the map this year.
By starting early, and aiming towards super-compliance with these really, really onerous provisions, Hope Springs from Field seeks to undermine that strategy, while informing voters about the new laws and regulations aimed at them.
Through our conversations with voters now, registering (and re-registering) voters at their doors, offering up opportunities to improve their neighborhood through Constituent Service Requests or protect their polling places and their Right to Vote through Incident Reports, Hope Springs volunteers are creating a more positive electoral environment for Democrats in 2024.
If you are able to support our efforts to protect Democratic voters, especially in minority communities, expand the electorate, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection, please help:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hopemobilization2024
If you would rather send a check, you can follow that link for our mailing address at the bottom of the page. Thank you for your support. This work depends upon you!