Last week we examined the most likely scenarios for what might happen when Donald Trump's Monday deadline for coming up with an appeal bond for his $454 million civil fraud judgment came and went. Trump and his co-defendants were ordered to pay that much after a New York State Supreme Court judge concluded he had engaged in a longtime pattern of financial fraud when building up his wealth.
The first possibility we mentioned turned out to be the one chosen by the Appellate Division of the state’s trial court. Here was our prognostication, just for funsies:
There's still a good possibility that the appeals court Trump is currently begging for relief will allow him to pay a lesser amount as temporary bond while Trump works through every last nook and cranny of the appeals process. There's little actual justification for lowering the amount, as James again noted in her most recent response to Trump's delaying tactics, but if you've been paying any attention at all to the current state of the American legal system you'll know that courts generally despise the thought of handing out big penalties to wealthy financial crooks. It's simply not something our “justice" system can stomach, not with its innate presumptions about the importance of the rich.
So at any point before next Monday, and at any point after it, it wouldn't be a shock to have the Appellate Division of Manhattan Supreme Court or a higher court tell James that because Trump is So Very Important, he doesn't have to abide by the usual rules and will be allowed to post a bond for one-half or even one-quarter of the owed amount in order to keep his appeal churning through the system. It's possible.
Surprise! That's exactly what happened. In a brief Monday order, the Appellate Division unilaterally slashed the amount Trump needed to come up with in order to appeal the lower court's decision to $175 million, not even half of the original $454 million judgment.
The court didn't bother to give an explanation for why Trump is getting this special treatment, but Trump and his lawyers had been angling very very hard for this outcome by claiming it simply wasn't possible for him to come up with that much money. New York Attorney General Letitia James' office filed a rebuttal that noted Trump was being evasive about his supposed financial hardship and that, in the end, the usual court response to "I can't come up with your money" is a hearty "Tough beans."
In the end, the appeals court appears to have determined that if Donald says he can't come up with the money, Donald shouldn't have to come up with the money. And the amount the court decided on is noteworthy because it just happens to turn Trump's attempts to post a bond into a much simpler affair. Estimates of Trump's available cash are sketchy, with Trump claiming he has "substantially in excess" of $400 million and other estimates putting that number at between $350-$600 million (before the E. Jean Carroll verdicts, which slice out roughly $90 million from that.)
So $175 million is, conveniently for Trump, an amount he claims he can easily come up with. He could theoretically put up the cash himself, or he could pay a surety company (or multiple surety companies) for a bond backed by those cash assets. The appeals court gives Trump 10 days to do so; if Trump bleats about it now then he's in far more dire financial shape than anyone thought.
The magnitude of the favor this appellate court just did for Trump really can't be overstated. Trump has been sweating greasy orange bullets over today's deadline, fuming on his Truth Social account over the injustice of it all.
On Sunday:
Why should a Crooked, highly political New York Judge, Arthur Engoron, working in concert and coordination with an even more Corrupt Attorney General, Letitia “[racial slur redacted]” James, his Puppet Master, and the White House, be allowed to take away, and sell off, very successful properties and assets that took me years to zone, build and nurture into some of the best of their kind anywhere in the World - WHEN I HAVE DONE NOTHING WRONG! These Radical Left Lunatics and Communists ask me to pay a ridiculous and completely unheard of fine of over $450,000,000 only because they saw a similar amount in my bank account. I had intended to use much of that hard earned money on running for President. They don’t want me to do that — ELECTION INTERFERENCE!
Also Sunday:
Don’t Like the way FoxNews is reporting the Letitia James Election Interference Scam. They don’t want to discuss how ridiculous the Corrupt Judge’s fine of 450 Million Dollars is. It should be $ZERO. The only fraud was the valuation of Mar-a-Lago at $18,000,000 by the Crooked Judge in order to help his already fully debunked narrative. They should pay me damages for what they have done, and ultimately will. THESE ARE NOT THE PEOPLE THAT MADE AMERICA GREAT, THESE ARE THE PEOPLE THAT ARE DESTROYING AMERICA!
Yup, also from Sunday:
The Judge in the A.G. case FRAUDULENTLY UNDERVALUED MAR-A-LAGO AT $18,000,000 IN ORDER TO CREATE HIS FAKE NARRATIVE. HE IS GROSSSLY INCOMPETENT AND CORRUPT! I SHOULD HAVE ZERO FINE.
Lord, this guy. Mind you, Trump appears to be equally consumed by the thought of having to come up with the money and by a court finding that his Mar-a-Lago home isn't worth nearly the eleventy bajillion dollars he insists it's worth, but the panic was real. And now it's not, because the appellate court granted him the biggest favor he’s ever received in his sorry life.
What happens next, assuming Trump posts the reduced $175 million bond, is difficult to guess. Both Judge Arthur Engoron and Attorney General James were quite pointed in noting that Trump's team wasn't able to properly explain which part of Engoron’s ruling they plan to appeal. So there's at least a snowball's chance that after receiving Trump's full and bonded appeal, the Appellate Division will rule that he doesn't have an appealable case and Trump will have to pay the original $454 million—plus interest accrued.
What's more likely is that this entire process drags out through election season, just as the majority of Trump's criminal trials appear destined to be delayed through the election. Trump appears to be betting big on being able to return to the White House and, once there, erase both his criminal and his financial problems through sheer force of authoritarian-premised power. There are still many obstacles that stand in the way of that outcome—but the courts, at least, don't seem likely to be one of them.
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