The House of Representatives has never switched majorities in mid-term. But it could happen. Taggan Goddard (of Political Wire) writes about the possibility: How Democrats Could Take the House Before the Election
Ken Buck (R-CO) resigned last week. Colorado 4th will hold a special election to replace him in June. (Bobblehead thought about running, but declined, and will run for the general only.) Mike Gallagher announced his resignation — and it will take effect one day after the deadline to call a special election in Wisconsin, so his seat will be vacant until January. Goddard then describes what we know is going to happen next:
Once Gallagher exits, there will only be 217 Republicans and 213 Democrats — a four seat margin.
But the GOP can only lose one vote on any given issue (assuming Democrats stay united) since a tie loses.
On April 30, there’s a special election to replace former Rep. Brian Higgins (D-NY). Democrats are favored to hold the seat.
On May 21, there’s a special election runoff to replace former Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA). Republicans will keep that seat.
(About that 4-seat margin: If one Republican votes with the Democrats (assuming all current members are present), a Republican bill will still pass, 216-214. But if two vote against, then it’s 215-215, and a tie vote means the bill fails.)
But here’s the thing: More Republicans may be planning to retire early, and they may not bother to tell leadership. This is because more and more “moderate Republicans” — meaning to the left of Genghis Khan — are increasingly fed up with GOP antics and inability to govern. See this analysis by Aaron Blake in today’s WaPo: The decline of Republicans’ governing wing, by the numbers:
House Republicans have seen not only a succession of more-moderate members head for the door, but also those with a taste for actual legislating and getting things done. . .
If House Republicans keep disproportionately losing members like [Gallagher], they’re going to keep seeing results like those of the past 14 months, during which time they have set new standards for their failure to legislate and their internal discord.
Blake is focusing on those who have decided not to run for re-election. But look again at what Gallagher did: He quit in the middle, even though he is a powerful chairman, he deliberately timed it so the GOP will be short a seat for the rest of the term, and he did without letting leadership know. That’s more than getting tired of it all; that’s taking revenge. And all it will take is 2 or 3 more to follow his example, and the Democrats will have a majority.
At that point, I’m not sure what will happen proceduraly. Nor is anyone. It’s never happened. But remember back when McCarthy agreed that a single member could move to vacate the chair, as one of the prices he paid for his Speakership (for all the good it did him)? Turns out that is any single member; it doesn’t have to be a Republican: What is a ‘motion to vacate’, the procedure that ousted Kevin McCarthy?
What is a motion to vacate?
The motion to vacate is the House’s procedure to remove its speaker. The chamber’s current rules allow any one member, Democrat or Republican, to introduce the motion. If it is introduced as a “privileged” resolution, the House must consider it at some point, although it could be delayed with procedural votes.
And you thought this year was already too wild?
Update 3/26 8:15 PST: Greene: GOP’s Gallagher should be expelled in time for special election
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) called on Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) on Sunday to push for Rep. Mike Gallagher’s (R-Wis.) expulsion from Congress ahead of his scheduled departure next month to allow his district time to select a new representative.
Not going to happen, needless to say (but I’ll say it anyway). It takes 2/3 of the House to expel a member, and somehow I can’t quite see the Democrats going along, can you?