New polling suggests the Biden campaign's recent swing-state offensive may be moving the needle in his direction.
A Bloomberg News/Morning Consult battleground poll conducted following the State of the Union address has found President Joe Biden improving against Donald Trump in six states. Crucially, Biden pulled even with Trump, at 45%, in Michigan and Pennsylvania and moved 1 percentage point ahead of Trump in Wisconsin, 46% to 45%. The so-called "blue wall" states in the upper Midwest are likely must-wins for Biden to be reelected.
Over the past month, Bloomberg noted a significant uptick for Biden in Wisconsin, where he gained 5 points on Trump, and in Pennsylvania, where Biden erased Trump's 6-point advantage last month.
Across all surveyed states—which also include Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina—Trump still leads overall, 47% to 43%, but Biden gained ground in every state except Georgia, where Trump grew his lead by 1 point.
The Bloomberg poll falls in line with the shifting election fundamentals, which recently appear to be moving in Biden’s direction. Those fundamentals show Biden gaining on Trump in national polling as well as strongly outpacing him in donations.
The Biden campaign has kicked into high gear since the president's State of the Union address on March 7. It has barnstormed eight battleground states in 18 days while also planning to staff up from 100 people to more than 350 across seven swing states. All the while, Trump has been stuck in a courtroom, fundraising at his Mar-a-Lago club, playing golf, and, in general, grousing from the cheap seats as Biden runs the field.
Also, the Biden campaign’s ad spending throughout most of March has more than quadrupled the Trump campaign's, according to NPR reporter Domenico Montanaro: $9.9 million to $2.4 million.
That disparity is likely to compound over time.
"Since Super Tuesday, Democrats are DOMINATING in presidential campaign ads—$142.5 million to $7.4 million," Montanaro tweeted Thursday, citing the nonpartisan research firm AdImpact. "That's not a typo," he added.
He explained that the figures included pre-bookings, including $130 million in ad reservations by the Democrat-aligned Future Forward PAC set to start in late August, following the Democratic National Convention.
Biden also continues to bank cash. On Thursday, the campaign set a single-day fundraising record, with Biden hauling in over $26 million at a joint appearance with past Democratic Presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton at Radio City Music Hall in New York City.
President Joe Biden’s approval ratings have been improving since his fiery State of the Union speech—as we predicted. At the same time, the Republican Party cannot stop the infighting, even as Donald Trump’s takeover seems to be complete. Markos and Kerry get into Biden’s improving fundamentals as the race to save America heats up.
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