Rep. John Duarte is a politician who has eked out an existence straddling the conservative and MAGA wings of the Republican Party. He claims to be a ‘moderate’ looking out for his district, and there are definitely some points on his record that support his claim. However, digging deeper reveals yet another enabler of the MAGA agenda. Supporting Jim Jordan and Mike Johnson as Speaker material is the clearest example, but not the only one.
If you are looking for a politician with an independent mind who will actually stand up for the people in his district, you cannot go wrong in choosing Adam Gray. He makes it clear in his launch video that the citizens of his district always come first.
Adam Gray was involved in the second closest election in 2022, ultimately coming up just short. He’s back in 2024 to reclaim this district for the Democratic Party. This time, the traditional turnout issues that plague the Central Valley of California shouldn’t be an issue. Gray also has experience in running a Congressional campaign. Question is, can Adam Gray flip back this district?
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Adam Gray for California-13
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What’s the Big Idea?
THIS DISTRICT IS A TOSSUP, with a D+4 PVI
The Central Valley is an area that has frustrated Democratic strategists in the state of California for a while. Demographics point to an area that should be fairly solidly Democratic, yet a combination of undocumented immigrants and midterm drop off conspire together to make it a swing region of the state. This district is no exception to that.
For most of the last decade, this district (numbered the 10th) was held by the GOP. Rep. Jeff Denham was very difficult to dislodge, in spite of Obama and Clinton narrowly carrying the district during their election campaigns. He defeated touted candidate after touted candidate with relative ease.
It took the 2018 blue wave election to finally flip this district. What was more important to voters that year was Denham was of the party of Trump, and there was a huge backlash to Trump in 2018. Josh Harder had roots in the district to win this district for Democrats, and then held it easily in 2020 as well.
However, Harder jumped to the open 9th district in 2022, giving the GOP an excellent opportunity to flip this district (now numbered the 13th). It was the second-closest election in 2022, and the Democratic candidate Adam Gray fell just short of holding the district. Instead, Rep. John Duarte won it 50.2% to 49.8%, 564 votes. Biden would’ve won this district 54.3% to 43.4% in 2020, pointing to a better chance with Presidential turnout.
Here’s where this race will be won in the 13th district.
- Modesto: This is the largest city in the district, and it is fairly Democratic in nature. This is where non-voting can hurt us, and where Adam Gray will have to work hardest to make sure that voters return their ballots.
- Merced: This city is the home base of Adam Gray, and he will have to overperform here and make sure every Democratic voter returns their ballot in order to win. This race is on a razor’s edge, and overperforming here can insulate him from other places.
Here’s where we need to keep the margins down, or we lose.
- Small Cities: There are plenty of small cities in the district that lean Democratic. Adam Gray has the task of making sure they return their ballots and stay in the Democratic column. Failure to do so will hand this seat straight to the GOP.
- Farm Country: The big agribusinesses that dominate the Central Valley tend to vote Republican, because the workers they employ tend to be undocumented. Duarte will run up the score in these areas, and it is up to Gray to keep them at Biden margins or a little worse than that.
Who is Adam Gray?
Adam Gray was a member of the California Assembly from 2012 to 2022, with a reputation as a moderate Democrat. He graduated with a degree in political science from the University of California — Santa Barbara. Before running for office, Gray was a staffer for various politicians in California politics. He is a professor at UC Merced, teaching a class in political science.
Much of the information below comes from the issues page of his campaign website.
- Water Rights. Water rights are VERY contentious out west, and Gray was even stripped of his committee chair for defying Democratic leadership on this issue. He was key in preventing the rest of the state from redistributing water from the Central Valley to elsewhere in the state. He was also responsible for funding water storage projects in the state.
- Agriculture. Gray will fight for better tax incentives for agriculture, just like he fought to eliminate the “tractor tax” in the state legislature. He made sure that Future Farmers of America (FFA) chapters that serve high schools still had funds to continue their work.
- Public Safety. Gray supports more police funding to tackle a serious gang problem in the Central Valley. This includes fighting against shoplifting rings and catalytic converter thefts. He still will support some police reforms, such as a ban on choke holds and ensuring officers wear body cameras.
- Education Advocate. Gray will support universal Pre-K programs similar to the one he supported in the state of California. He has also secured funding for agricultural education programs in Modesto and Merced. Finally, Gray helped pass critical funding to combat a serious youth mental health crisis as a result of the pandemic. The NEA has endorsed his campaign.
- Health Care Focus. The Central Valley has an acute shortage of doctors. The solution Gray proposed was to create a medical school at UC Merced and UCSF-Fresno in order to train locals to fill the shortage. Gray also would work on the rural health care crisis just like he did in the California Assembly.
Who is Rep. John Duarte?
Rep. John Duarte is a farmer and businessman who also grew up in the Central Valley. He is the heir to the Duarte Nursery, which is one of the largest in the nation. He has an MBA, as well as a degree in finance. Duarte campaigned as a “moderate” member of the GOP willing to stand up to “the woke and ultra-conservatives”. Certainly, there are some votes that could be labeled “moderate” votes. However, he has a record of enabling the MAGA wing of the party.
- Farming Follies. Duarte settled a dispute over plowing a field for wheat on his homestead which violated the Clean Water Act. He also has been accused of knowingly selling defective trees as a part of Duarte Nursery. That litigation is ongoing at this time, though a judge ruled for the farmers affected already.
- Speaker Debacle. At first, Duarte was an ally of McCarthy and Scalise in the “moderate” camp. However, he would eventually vote for extremist Jim Jordan, as well as current Speaker Mike Johnson. This undoes all of his “moderate” votes. He also bragged he is ‘not that far from those Freedom Caucus guys’
- Debt and Deficit Peacock. Duarte is another politician that likes to talk about the deficit and debt, yet he calls the Inflation Reduction Act as a “very socialist program” in spite of it actually reducing the deficit. Instead, he votes for legislation that increases the deficit to help his rich constituents avoid taxes.
- Trump Endorser. It hasn’t happened yet for 2024, but Duarte recently stated that he will ‘ultimately endorse’ Trump for President once the primary elections are over. Remember that Biden won his district in 2020, and will likely win it again in 2024. Instead of being a ‘moderate’ voice, he bends the knee to the leader of the party.
- 2nd Amendment Zealot. Duarte claims that gun safety policies have ‘failed in California and Chicago’ and that an assault weapons ban is ‘unconstitutional’. He is okay with limited background checks, but that is it. He has an “A-” grade with the NRA, showing that he is in lockstep with their agenda.
How Can You Help?
If you don’t live in the Central Valley of California, there are still ways you can help Adam Gray out. For instance, you could send him a small donation. It doesn’t have to be a substantial amount of money, as even $3-5 multiplied by thousands of people makes an impact! Given how close this race was last time, I’d expect the race to be very expensive — even though the media markets in the Central Valley are cheap. The DCCC recently named Gray to its touted Red to Blue program.
The two candidates are at parity when it comes to fundraising, but Rep. John Duarte has a massive head start. Neither candidate has kicked into high gear yet either. Adam Gray raised $318k during Q4, while Duarte raised only $305k. However, the cash on hand isn’t close, with Gray only having $393k to spend. Duarte has banked $1.42M. Help close the gap with a donation today!
What is even more critical in a low turnout section of the United States are volunteers for the campaign. If you live as far away as Sacramento or San Francisco, or in the Central Valley itself, brave that traffic and help out Adam Gray! The nonpartisan primary is on Tuesday, so now it is all about ramping up for the general election campaign. That takes a committed core of volunteers.
A final way that anyone can help the campaign out is through boosting Adam Gray and his messages on social media. Remember that the majority of people get their news on social media these days, so a campaign that lacks a good presence on social media risks not being viable. Campaigns use social media to fundraise, get their message out, and to trade barbs with their opponent. Adam Gray doesn’t even have links to his social media accounts on his campaign website. He risks not gaining enough followers by doing that!
Gray only has 6.3k followers on what was once Twitter. Given that he ran last time, his follower count is a little anemic. He is using the platform mostly to promote his own campaign, with a smattering of endorsements and holiday celebrations. Hopefully he ramps up his usage when it gets closer to election time, but it was a problem last campaign as well.
Gray has 5k followers on his Facebook account, which is much better than his Twitter page. He also posts different content to Facebook than he does Twitter. He still refrains from posting fundraising missives or attacks on Duarte on this social media platform. Here’s Gray celebrating his past as a dairy farmer!
Help spread the word today by following Adam Gray and boosting his campaign in the critical realm of social media!
The nonpartisan Top 2 primary on Tuesday will be a good barometer of how the race will wind up in November. Only Adam Gray and Rep. John Duarte are on the ballot, so they automatically advance to the November election. Both candidates will be looking for signs that their coalition is primed to win this seat come the fall.
I will warn you right now — Adam Gray is not a progressive politician. California’s Central Valley is another place that doesn’t support progressive politics, so he is a good fit for the district. He has been endorsed by organizations such as the Blue Dog PAC (in the past) and the New Dems Action Fund (in both 2022 and 2024). Gray is likely to join groups such as the Problem Solvers Caucus if he is elected to Congress. He has a history of bucking the Democratic Party on certain issues, and he will likely do the same in Washington, D.C.
Rep. John Duarte is tied for the 2nd most vulnerable Republican according to Daily Kos. The midterm participation drop-off that helped him in 2022 won’t be an issue in 2024, and he has enabled the MAGA agenda too many times to claim that he is a “moderate”. He is a member of the #Beatable18 that we need to defeat in order to win back the House, but even he will not be an easy out. The question is, can Adam Gray win this district back?
Adam Gray for California-13
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Let's take back the House by targeting the 6 most vulnerable CURRENT Democrats and the 18 districts that Biden won in 2020 that have R reps! That brings us to the 24 in 24 Fund! Please donate and then share a link to this site on your social media! #Beatable18