Russian forces operating around Avdiivka appear to be adapting to conducting offensive ground operations with trained and untrained personnel. In Kherson more experienced troops are engaged.
The Washington Post published interviews on March 2 with seven Ukrainian servicemen from the 3rd Assault Brigade who discussed overwhelming Russian wave attacks in Avdiivka in the lead-up to Russia’s capture of the settlement in mid-February. Several interviewed Ukrainian servicemen described Russian forces involved in later direct assaults on Ukrainian positions as well-prepared. One Ukrainian soldier told the Washington Post that about three-quarters of Russian personnel his unit engaged with near Avdiivka appeared to have “decent” military training and the rest were “just confused.”[21] One Ukrainian serviceman recalled that a group of well-trained Russian soldiers used rocket-propelled grenades to enter their positions, while another serviceman recalled that inexperienced Russian servicemen avoided attacking his position after he was able to shoot eight soldiers in one day. The serviceman stated that the Russian military sent inexperienced personnel who appeared to be 40 to 50 years old to attack in waves each morning, afternoon, and evening without protective vests or helmets near Avdiivka.
Another Ukrainian serviceman observed that the Russian skill levels were not “really consistent” and that some servicemen had more advanced equipment than their counterparts who only had basic rifles. The reports about inconsistencies in the nature of Russian attacks and in the quality of attacking personnel indicate that Russian forces may be conducting layered ground attacks alternating between groups of trained forces and untrained forces, likely consisting of mobilized personnel or Russian “Storm” units composed of recruited convicts.[22] Commander of the 2nd Assault Battalion of the 3rd Brigade Mykola Zynkevych similarly recalled in an interview with a Ukrainian publication that Russian forces used 20 to 30 people to attack one position — a lot more than Russian forces used in similar attacks during the effort to seize Bakhmut.[23] Russian forces likely used poorly trained personnel to carry out mass daily attacks on Ukrainian positions and employed trained personnel with better equipment to assault specific positions after exhausting Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are likely attempting to adapt ground attacks to sustain a higher tempo of offensive operations near Avdiivka with personnel of varying levels of training and to prevent rapid attrition of better-trained units and formations.
www.understandingwar.org/...
- China and Turkey continue to pursue their own negotiation platforms for a settlement in Ukraine, which the Kremlin is exploiting to further its own information operations aimed at discouraging continued international support for Ukraine.
- Recent relatively high Russian aviation losses appear to be prompting a significant decrease in Russian aviation activity in eastern Ukraine, although it is unclear how long this decrease in activity will last.
- Delays in Western security assistance will likely make Ukraine’s energy infrastructure more vulnerable to Russian strikes.
- Russian forces operating around Avdiivka appear to be adapting to conducting offensive ground operations with trained and untrained personnel.
- German officials confirmed that the Kremlin is conducting an information operation aimed at deterring Western states, particularly Germany, from sending additional military aid to Ukraine.
- The Russian Anti-Terrorism Committee (NAK) announced on March 3 that the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) conducted a localized counter-terrorism operation in Karabulak, Republic of Ingushetia.
- Positional engagements continued throughout the theater on March 3.
- Russian regional administrations continue efforts to expand the aperture of ongoing crypto-mobilization efforts.
www.understandingwar.org/...
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)
Positional engagements continued along the Kupyansk-Kreminna line on March 3. … Positional fighting continued near Synkivka, southeast of Kupyansk near Tabaivka, west of Kreminna near Terny and Yampolivka, and south of Kreminna near Bilohorivka and Verkhnokamyanske.[34] Ukrainian Khortytsia Group of Forces Spokesperson Captain Ilya Yevlash stated that Russian forces have slightly reduced the intensity of their offensive operations and are consolidating new positions in the Kupyansk direction.[35] Yevlash added that Russian forces are regrouping and preparing assault groups in the Lyman direction and are transferring forces to the Terny and Yampolivka areas. Elements of the Russian 7th Motorized Rifle Brigade (2nd Luhansk People’s Republic [LNR] Army Corps) and the Chechen Akhmat Spetsnaz “Aida” detachment are reportedly operating near Bilohorivka.[36]
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Positional engagements continued near Bakhmut on March 3, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline. Positional engagements continued northwest of Bakhmut near Bohdanivka; west of Bakhmut near Ivanivske; and south and southwest of Bakhmut near Klischiivka, Andriivka, Pivdenne, and Niu York.[37] ...Elements of the Russian 98th Airborne (VDV) Division are reportedly operating northwest of Ivanivske, and elements of the 83rd VDV Brigade are reportedly operating near Klischiivka.[39]
Positional engagements continued near Avdiivka on March 3, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline. Positional engagements continued northwest of Avdiivka near Berdychi, Stepove, and Orlivka; west of Avdivika near Tonenke; and southwest of Avdiivka near Pervomaiske and Nevelske.[40] Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Dmytro Lykhovyi stated that the operational situation in Berdychi, Orlivka, and Tonenke is stabilizing and that Ukrainian forces are repelling Russian attacks in these settlements.[41] Lykhovyi added that Russian forces have not captured Berdychi, Orlivka, or Tonenke, but have had some localized successes in the Avdiivka direction…. Elements of the Russian 30th Motorized Rifle Brigade (2nd Combined Arms Army [CAA], Central Military District [CMD]) are reportedly operating near Berdychi; elements of the 110th Motorized Rifle Brigade (1st Donetsk People‘s Republic Army Corps [DNR AC]) are reportedly operating near Nevelske; and elements of the 14th “Kalmius” Artillery Brigade (1st DNR AC) are reportedly operating near Avdiivka.[43]