President Joe Biden and Democratic leaders have been using all their leverage to get House Speaker Mike Johnson behind critical Ukraine aid, and it appears to be working. CNN reported on Sunday that Johnson has reached out to the pro-Ukraine wing of House Republicans, which has been working on a bipartisan bill that includes military aid—but not humanitarian assistance—to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, as well as some border-related measures. The group’s support among House Republican leadership is “[m]ore than you think,” Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, a Pennsylvania Republican, told CNN. “We have to get something done.”
This promising development follows a meeting last week in which Biden, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries, and Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell ganged up on Johnson, pressuring him to make the House vote on the Senate’s foreign aid package, which includes Ukraine aid.
However, things might not be so simple.
Johnson’s problem is the threat from the far-right maniacs in his party—especially Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene—who appear poised to oust him from the speakership the minute a Ukraine aid bill lands on the floor. Greene staked out her position in January, saying she personally would trigger the vote for his ouster. “We can’t fund Ukraine,” she said, saying it is “an absolute no-go—that would be a reason to vacate.”
However, Democrats have an answer to that, depending on what Johnson does. After the leaders’ meeting last week, Jeffries told reporters that “a reasonable number” of Democrats would likely protect him from that.
“It does seem to me,” Jeffries said, “based on informal conversations, that were Speaker Johnson to do the right thing relative to meeting the significant national security needs of the American people by putting it on the floor for an up-or-down vote, there will be a reasonable number of people in the House Democratic Caucus who will take the position that he should not fall as a result.”
It all depends on what “do the right thing” means to Democrats. So far, that thing is not the bill from a bipartisan group of House centrists. “The only way forward is the bipartisan, comprehensive Senate-passed national security bill,” Jeffries said last week. “House Republicans need to put it on the floor for an up-or-down vote. And everybody under the Capitol dome knows it will pass.”
In action, that means continuing to push the Democrats’ discharge petition. That’s a procedural move that would allow Ukraine backers to bypass House leadership and force a vote on the bill. It’s a stretch—it needs 218 signatures, which means a handful of Republicans must be on board. If leadership ends up stonewalling or dragging out this process, pro-Ukraine Republicans—and there are plenty of them—could sign on. It remains a long shot for securing the aid, but if nothing else, it’s a valuable tool for keeping the pressure on Johnson.
Jeffries is using both a carrot and a stick here, letting Johnson know Democrats would protect him if he does the right thing, but also sending the message that they’ll do everything they can to make him look even weaker by forcing it on him.
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