As Super Tuesday voting got underway for Republicans in 16 states and territories, the Biden team tweeted an MSNBC interview with two Nikki Haley supporters in Texas.
Asked what they would do if Haley drops out and endorses Donald Trump, one said, “I don’t really think she will.”
"If she does, I'll vote Democrat,” said the other. “That's all there is to it.”
The number of Haley supporters who might ultimately cast a ballot to reelect President Joe Biden has become an intriguing question ever since the Iowa caucus, where a pre-caucus poll showed 43% of Haley supporters said they would vote Biden if Trump is the nominee.
Meanwhile, Trump appears to be making an explicit effort to boost the number of non-MAGA Republicans who defect if he clinches the nomination.
And Super Tuesday could help the Biden camp home in on exactly how large that center-right voting pool is and, in some cases, where those voters reside.
Not all primaries are created equal. Some are open to all voters regardless of party registration; some are partially open, which usually means party members and other unaffiliated voters can participate; and others are closed to everyone but registered members of the party.
That means closed primaries can offer a clearer view of which Republicans are casting what are effectively anti-Trump protest votes, while the open and semi-open primaries can provide a more inclusive view of the universe of center-right voters who are motivated to cast a ballot against Trump.
Here's the quick and dirty on the basic rules of the Republican primaries in each state, courtesy of Yahoo News.
- Open: Alabama, Arkansas, Minnesota, Texas, Virginia, and Vermont.
- Partially open: Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, North Carolina, and Tennessee.
- Closed: Alaska, California, Oklahoma, and Utah.
Here’s what we do know now, before the Super Tuesday results are in. In New Hampshire, Haley won 43% of the vote, including 24% of self-identified Republicans. In South Carolina, she won nearly 40% of the vote, including 30% of self-identified Republicans. But in both states, Haley had a decent amount of lead time in terms of campaigning and advertising to generate that vote in a more targeted way.
The Michigan results, where Haley did little-to-no campaigning and advertising, likely provided a clearer view of the raw anti-Trump protest vote. Haley won nearly 27% of the vote in the Great Lakes State, but we don't know the partisan breakdown because no exit polling was conducted.
But Trump's refrain over the weekend that you're either with him or you're against him—and those against him will be purged—could help ensure that any not-Trump vote is, in effect, an anti-Trump vote.
Those Haley supporters in Texas voters who say they definitely won’t be supporting Trump have clearly internalized the message that their kind is no longer welcome in Trump's Republican Party. And it sounds like they plan to vote accordingly if they are faced with a choice between Biden and Trump come November.
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