Trump is slated to go to trial in the federal criminal case against him for allegedly mishandling White House documents that he brought back to Mar-A-Lago, though U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon has said she’ll review Trump’s request to push back the trial date at a hearing in March, and the judge has already pushed back several deadlines, which likely makes it harder for the trial to proceed on time.
This an unusually dangerous and complex case both for Trump and the nation. Not only does it involve a Trump ally (Judge Cannon), but it also involves “Secret” and “Top Secret” federal documents, some relating to national security, nuclear arms, defense posture, etc. It’ also involves Trump and his staff working hard to move and conceal those documents in closets, bathrooms, and desks- and some are still missing.
The peril to Trump is multi-faceted. He risks being found guilty, being sentenced to prison, being discredited by large parts of the US electorate, and losing Indeps. and even a big chunk of the Repub. voters, perhaps 10-25% of them.
I’m speculating that this case will be the start of a far more harsh & critical treatment of the BLOAT (Biggest Loser of All Time) by the mainstream media. As almost “everyone says”, TDFG is getting off quite easy in terms of treatment by the media. They still want a horse-race!! But don’t fall for their deceit- TDFG is in deep, deep shit of his own doing!!
6) Attempting to Overthrow the US Presidential Election in 2020
It remains unclear when Trump’s federal trial for trying to overturn the 2020 election will go to trial, after an initial March 4 trial date was delayed while Trump tries to have his charges thrown out because of “presidential immunity;” the dispute is now before the
Supreme Court after lower judges ruled against Trump and the court’s handling of the case will determine when the trial begins, with legal experts at Just Security
speculating it will start sometime between June and October.
This case is obviously another biggie, stemming from the Jan 6th Insurrection and the failed attempt to have VP Pence 'Hold up" the EV Counting. Carrying immense political
August 5Fulton County, Georgia, district attorney Fani Willis has requested this as the trial start date in her criminal case against Trump and his allies for trying to overturn the 2020 election—but it’s unclear whether it actually will be, as no final trial dates have yet been set, and Willis now faces potential disqualification from the case in light of allegations involving her romantic relationship with prosecutor Nathan Wade.
7) Incumbency is always a formidable advantage for an elected office
This is an article of faith for anyone studying politics. Any incumbent has a huge boost in name recognition, an automatic forum on public issues, and the “bully pulpit” from which to address voters. Biden has it, Trump does not!!
In the US House, the percentage of incumbents winning re-election has hovered between 85- 100% for the last half-century. For the Senate, there is only slightly more variation, given the statewide nature of the race, but it is still a very high majority of incumbents who win reelection.
8) Trump the candidate, and quarterback of his campaign, is his own worst enemy!
The political and military (self-described) genius is having extreme trouble getting top-level donors, which is a surprise in itself. In addition, the “malignant narcissist” (Mary Trumps term) has had trouble recruiting and retaining attorneys, campaign staff, advisors, etc. ad nauseum! Trump insists on control, even when he does not have the requisite technical or legal skills of his attorneys or advisors.
8-B) Trump is losing it
This is a BFD!! TDFG is nowhere near his mental & rhetorical skill levels of 2016, the year he won the surprising Presidential election. Eight years later, he’s showing a shocking (scary?) decline in his ability to reason; to complete sentences; to remember which leaders represent which countries; and a large number of critical historical events. Time marches on, and for some (TDFG), the effects of diet, exercise, and stress can be devastating for their minds & bodies.
His health situation is unlikely to reverse, and as it advances, so will the level of concern or panic among Rep officials. The Republican National Convention is scheduled for July 15-18, ‘24, in Milwaukee, Wis. How will Rep officials, and delegates, view the BLOAT (Biggest Loser/Liar of All Time) during that convention??? I am, at the moment, in the dark on that question!!
Aside from the basic point of his ability to lead his own campaign, most DK readers are aware that there is raging debate, both within the GOP and in other parties, about whether TDFG is sane enough to allow him to continue as a candidate for the Presidency. This is an issue that I don’t think will just go away- because his actions & comments will keep it going!!
*** www.dailykos.com/…
9) Gen Z is already signaling strongly they will be out in force in 2024
Based on an in-depth Ipsos/CIRCLE poll in Nov. ‘23, Youth Voters have said that “57% [are] extremely likely [to vote in 2024}”, and another “15% [are] fairly likely [to vote in 2024]”. It looks very likely to me that they will surpass the 2020 record of 52.5% turnout (per Elec. Project) next year.
I’m going out on a limb, and I am predicting that they will turn out at 55-59% of the voter-eligible Youth Voters in Nov ‘24!
10) Abortion Rights is a losing issue for TDFG and Repubs in ‘24
As I and many DK posters have noted many times, Dems & Dem-leaning voters, (and break-away Republicans) have won all 8 of the 8 state-wide votes on abortion rights since the Dobbs Decision in June of 2022. The Reps. finally caught the car they were chasing, and now they cannot let go!
As many recent state elections, polls, and ballot initiatives have shown, the Reps. have ignited a large majority of women voters who will fight like hell at having some long-held rights taken away by the Suprem Court. They will continue this fight for a very long time- and they are backed by a significant number of men who are not Evangelical Christians or MAGA supporters. Even Rep operatives are in agreement that this is a very risky proposition for their Party.
11) The Republican Party is a dumpster fire colliding with a train wreck of radioactive waste!!
I’m not going to spend a lot of time on this, as I think it’s pretty self-explanatory. Suffice it to say that many of the state-level Rep Party orgs. are in chaos, and some are even bordering on bankruptcy! For example, Michigan, Arizona, and Nevada? have had serious trouble keeping their state coffers in shape for the coming elections.
More importantly, the Rep Party has embraced a number of issues that are turning off a very wide part of the electorate, including many Indeps. and some “mainstream” Reps. Three examples: First, shutting down the bipartisan border security bill- which even Trump admits he is responsible for doing. Second, failing to provide military assistance to Ukraine & Israel. Third, inability to pass virtually anything in the House, including a federal budget. And we are now four months into the new fiscal year for the US govt.!!
***
12) Swing states look stable or better as we enter 2024.
We all know that it’s about the electoral vote, right?? The popular vote is not the measure we use to elect Presidents- yet. We are a long way out from the election, and I place very little confidence in polls even when the election is close. Some polls of swing states show TDFG to be stronger in them now than in 2020, some recent polls show Biden strength.
But TDFG’s also lost a lot of voters in both the Rep. Party and among Ind. Party voters. Another huge point- the Biden-Harris team is putting about $100 million into campaigns in the swing states. I expect that to have a very big pro-Dem impact in November.
13) Polls of candidates one year out are even less predictive than those a few weeks out.
Many opinion pieces and DK posts have noted that polling quality & reliability have taken a nose-dive in recent years. I still do not personally understand whether it’s demographic changes, technology and the switch from cell phones from land-lines, or social resistance to answering polls, but they seem especially bad and inaccurate in recent years.
In any case, I do expect that as the election gets much closer, the accuracy of the polls will also improve considerably.
14) Major donors to Reps are sitting tight on their money.
The picture is changing, as Nikki Haley has gotten less support in the Repub. Primaries than TDFG. But he has finally secured a few major donors- Bigelow & Marcus.
Robert Bigelow, one of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’s (R) most prominent donors, said he is switching his support from the Florida governor to Trump. Bigelow is owner of the Budget Suites of America and founder of Bigelow Aerospace. Top GOP donor and Home Depot co- founder Bernie Marcus also announced his endorsement of Trump on Thursday.
15. It’s the economy, stupid!!
Two months into 2024, and the US economy is still remarkably resilient. The job market remains strong, inflation is very slowly receding, and the stock market has been on a tear. I’m not going to go into a lot of details; I think most Kos readers are well aware of how well the economy is doing under Joe Biden.
16) The MAGA Agenda: “The latest demonstration that the MAGA movement is out of touch with American families is the Alabama Supreme Court designating an embryo as a person. Even Republicans see the flashing red warning signs of the political repercussions of this idiosyncratic and out-of-touch decision. As Alabama fertility clinics shut down their IVF operations, it is the death knell for families wanting to have children. Such extremism may have solidified a Biden victory. Republicans are rightfully in a panic over it. Americans have resoundingly rejected the MAGA extremist agenda in 2018, 2020, 2022, 2023, and will do so again in 2024.” ( From Real Clear Politics, by Maria Cardona)
More on that:
“Project 2025 is more than a playbook for Trumpism, it’s the Christian Nationalist manifesto” 3/1/24 https://t.co/o8OlZfaybT pic.twitter.com/w60AKIHcaP
— jennycohn@toad.social ✍🏻 📢 (@jennycohn1) March 3, 2024
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
The cases against Trump carry the possibility of significant penalties against the former president, including prison time. Trump could be sentenced to up to 717.5 years in prison if he were convicted of every criminal count against him and given the maximum punishment, though that’s unlikely to happen. He could also be fined up to $11.2 million in the criminal cases against him, plus whatever damages he’s ordered to pay in civil cases. The ex-president also faces more legal challenges in which a trial date hasn’t been set yet, with civil lawsuits moving forward from Capitol police officers and Democratic lawmakers that seek to hold Trump liable for Jan. 6.
** from Forbes Mag., Feb 15, 2024
Need a little cat-centric comic relief?? I’ll bring it for anyone who wants it!