• Baltimore, MD Mayor: Braun Research, polling on behalf of Goucher College and The Baltimore Banner, shows Baltimore Mayor Brandon Scott leading former Mayor Sheila Dixon 40-32 in the May 14 Democratic primary, with former prosecutor Thiru Vignarajah at 11% and self-funding businessman Bob Wallace taking 3%. This is the first independent survey we've seen all year of the contest to lead this loyally Democratic city.
Braun, however, asked several questions ahead of the horserace matchup. These included whether respondents felt crime had increased or decreased in their neighborhoods over the last year, and how Scott and other elected officials responded to the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge. (The mayor received a "good" or "excellent" score from 70% of primary voters.) We always encourage pollsters to ask these sorts of questions after the horserace to avoid "priming" voters to lean one way or the other.
Scott outpaced Dixon 30-27 in their 2020 primary (Vignarajah finished in fourth with 12%), and their rematch has attracted a good deal of attention.
While Dixon resigned as mayor in 2010 after she was convicted of stealing gift cards that were supposed to help needy families, her narrow loss four years ago underscored the solid base of support she still retains. Scott's critics, meanwhile, have argued he's done a poor job addressing crime even as the mayor has touted a drop in the homicide rate.
Scott has held a fundraising advantage through the race, and he still had considerably more money available as of early April even though Dixon outraised him this year. The former mayor outpaced the incumbent $273,000 to $231,000 from Jan. 11 to April 2, while Scott had a $908,000 to $497,000 edge in cash on hand.
Vignarajah, who is the only notable candidate utilizing the city's public financing system, took in a total of $698,000. He reported having $548,000 on hand on April 2, though he says he'll receive another $150,000 from Baltimore's Fair Election Fund.
Dixon is also receiving support from Better Baltimore PAC, a super PAC primarily funded by two influential donors: David Smith, the new Baltimore Sun owner who also serves as executive chairman of the conservative Sinclair Broadcast Group, and developer John Luetkemeyer.
Better Baltimore reported taking in $386,000 during the last fundraising period and spending $432,000 on media. The super PAC had just $17,000 in the bank on April 2, but its donors are almost certainly capable of giving more.
Scott has publicized recent endorsements from Sens. Ben Cardin and Chris Van Hollen, while Baltimore State's Attorney Ivan Bates, the city's top prosecutor, backed Dixon this week. Bates also starred in a commercial in which he appeared to implicitly address Dixon's old scandal by telling the audience, "I’m not worried about the past, I’m focused on the partnership for the future."
If Scott secures renomination, he'll almost certainly become the first Baltimore mayor to win a second full term since Martin O'Malley did so in 2004, though O'Malley didn't complete that term. Instead, he ran for governor in 2006 and unseated Republican Gov. Robert Ehrlich.
Following O'Malley's victory, Dixon, as city council president, was elevated to the mayor's office. She easily won a full term in 2007 only to resign in disgrace in 2010, and Stephanie Rawlings-Blake this time was the one who ascended from council president to mayor.
Rawlings-Blake won her 2011 primary for a full term by beating state Sen. Catherine Pugh 52-25, but she did not seek reelection in the face of widespread criticism over her handling of the 2015 unrest that followed after Freddie Gray died in police custody. Pugh and Dixon both competed in the 2016 primary, which saw the state senator prevail 37-35.
Pugh's tenure, however, also ended in scandal in 2019 when she resigned before pleading guilty to conspiracy and tax evasion charges related to her self-published children's books. City Council President Jack Young took over as mayor but, unlike Dixon and Rawlings-Blake, he fared poorly in his bid to stay in office, finishing fifth in the 2020 primary that Scott won.
P.S. If eagle-eyed readers are wondering why Baltimore's elections have flip-flopped from even years to odd and back again, it's a very complex story that you'll find recounted in this Baltimore Sun piece.