We all know that RFK Jr is a nutball. But he’s a dangerous one, in two ways. First, his absurd anti-vax position obviously increases the risk of needless deaths. But he also has the potential to draw votes away from Biden in the general election, which could be catastrophic for the nation and the world. Right now the common assumption is that he would hurt Biden more than Trump as a third party candidate, and this is plausible as things stand right now. But they don’t need to stay this way.
A recent (and typically mealy-mouthed) story in the NYT, “Trump Allies Have a Plan to Hurt Biden’s Chances: Elevate Outsider Candidates”, the authors point out that there are efforts to keep RFK Jr off the ballot in as many swing states as possible. This certainly would cut the proverbial Gordian Knot. But their story also points the way for how to use his candidacy as a weapon against Trump—by painting him as a friend of the Q-addled right and disaffected Haley voters.
Obviously pulling the lever for RFK Jr can only be a protest vote. So, if he is going to be on the ballot, then people need to be persuaded to see a vote for him as a protest against Trump.
I think this can be done with two parallel campaigns: one that appeals to anti-vax/conspiracy nutters and one that appeals to moderate Republican voters who would never vote for a Democrat. I have no data, so I’m going entirely by guesswork here, but I suspect that there are many more of them than there are of people left of center who dislike Biden enough to prefer a second Trump administration and the end of a democratic America.
Which is to say, that with a smart and well-funded campaign, we could turn RFK Jr into an asset for Biden heading into November. I’d love to hear people’s opinion about this.