The head of the CDC thinks we are well-prepared for the next pandemic, better prepared than ever. Let’s discuss.
It is self-destructive to try to memory-hole just how bad the previous pandemic was, or to pretend that another one won’t happen. It will. When, not if. We’re talking viruses here, they don’t stop, ever.
The next pandemic has an excellent chance of starting right here in the US. Avian flu has been spreading through birds for 20 years now, infecting and often killing an occasional human who had direct contact. The most recent death was a Vietnamese man who had been bird hunting. Health officials found no trace of the virus in any of his contacts, or any of the domestic birds in his environment. It has been found in dozens of mammal species now; mild in some, deadly in others. It has managed mammal-to-mammal transmission in a few species (most recently in laboratory ferrets in separate cages). And it is now in dairy cattle in at least 8 states last I heard. We are just waiting for the next shoe to drop.
A handful of mutations, or a reassortment event, and we are off to the races. Ten years from now? Next month? Either is possible.
This does not mean that a dark horse candidate couldn’t pop up out of somewhere else and cross the finish line first. There are always more viruses.
And it doesn’t matter two straws in a hurricane where on the globe a given viral variant first cropped up. So ixnay on the blame game, and the stupid conspiracy theories about bio-weapons and so on. This is nature being nature.
Scientifically, we are far better off now than 4 years ago. Our surveillance structure is back in place, all of the world is alert for threats. Genomic sequencing is faster and cheaper than ever, so we can see what’s coming easily. And our vaccine systems have proven their worth and are more nimble than ever, able to start working at the drop of a genetic sequence, not months or years later.
Sociologically, however, we are in a bad way. The Qanon conservatives have spent the last four years hardening their anti-science, anti-public health stance, and convincing a significant fraction of Americans to ACTIVELY RESIST any attempt to SAVE THEIR LIVES. There are far too many people who really believe (while they are well) that it would be better to die than to listen to an actual expert and take their advice. [on the point of death, many have changed their minds, but it’s far too late then.] Courting death and disability for yourself and your children is seen as somehow patriotic. Tough. Independent. MAGA. Whatever. My Idaho state senator introduced a bill [which thankfully went nowhere], trying to outlaw taking any direction from the WHO or the CDC in our state. That’s what we’re up against. Weaponized science denial.
People may have the inherent right to destroy their own bodies, but not other people’s bodies with them. We need to be educating and persuading Americans back off the ledge, not encouraging them to jump. But I’ll be darned if I see a way forward on that.