President Biden and Democrats in general have a secret weapon this year. Reproductive Freedom is driving voters (and volunteers) in expected and surprising ways. Not just in states where there are Constitutional Amendments on the ballot. Hope Springs from Field PAC [website] volunteers everywhere are seeing this, whether it’s because a voter has self-identified as a single issue Abortion Rights voter for 2024, or name Abortion as the “most urgent issue” for the country, state or locally. We have found 269,873 Abortion single issue voters in the Swing States where we are knocking on doors, and we are likely to find many more through Labor Day (we haven’t even started knocking in every state yet!).
And Reproductive Rights seems to be a double pump issue — Democrats are doing all the right things to appeal to suburban voters here, while Republicans continue to go out of their way to make it worse for themselves. It’s the silent MAGA killer.
Hope Springs volunteers have collected 101,193 verified petitions from valid voters in Arizona, Florida and Nevada who live at the address from which they were registered to get Reproductive Rights amendments on their November ballot. This is not the number of signatures volunteers have collected but the number volunteers have turned in and organizers have matched to ensure the signer was registered to vote at the address they provided on the petition.
I’ve been pretty clear that “i don’t believe 2024 is going to be about Joe Biden” (i argue 2024 will be the Freedom Election). Over the last two years, Reproductive Freedom has increasingly emerged as a dominating topic for the voters we have talked to. Two years ago, when Dobbs was still on the horizon of the Supreme Court, voters were expressing concerns (in addition to economic topics) about Ukraine, Crime, Education topics and Racism. And, then in May 2022, the Dobbs ruling leaked. And voter’s concerns changed. In 2021, voters who told us Abortion was a Top Issue hovered around 4%. And we were still around that range (4%-8%) when we first started canvassing in 2022. But the Dobbs ruling leaked became the Dobbs ruling, striking down Roe v Wade, and we started seeing double digits. In the Ohio suburbs (where we had been canvassing), by the time the November (2023) election rolled around, 28% of the voters we talked to rated Reproductive Freedom as a Top or their Single Issue.
From our canvassing this year, 27% of Arizona voters, 24.6% of Florida voters, 31.7% of Maryland voters and 30.6% of Nevada voters fall into our category as Abortion voters, either by naming Abortion as the single issue that will determine their votes in the Fall or naming Reproductive Freedom as “the most urgent issue” facing the country, or their state or locality. This is in line with what the Wall Street Journal found, as well:
Abortion is the most powerful issue driving suburban women who could decide the presidential election. Now President Biden is trying to harness that energy, while Donald Trump is looking to redirect it.
A recent Wall Street Journal poll of seven battleground states found that 39% of suburban women cite abortion as a make-or-break issue for their vote—making it by far the most motivating issue for the group. Nearly three-quarters of them say the procedure should be legal all or most of the time, and a majority thinks Trump’s policies are too restrictive.
Reproductive Freedom is the major reason why 2024 won’t be a re-run of 2020. In fact, i’d argue that the 2024 election is much bigger than the 2020, and much bigger than Joe Biden or TFG. Much. Bigger.
People who consistently read my posts may remember that we find that we find that volunteers talk to more voters and see much more welcoming reactions at the door when the political environment around voters raises awareness about the ongoing campaign. Voters seem to take time out for conversations about politics at their doors when “everyone is talking about it.”
And that’s what Hope Springs from Field volunteers are seeing this year. But the ongoing political conversations aren’t about the Trump Trials, or Biden v Trump, but Reproductive Freedom. One indicator of this is that we see and talk to a lot more women this year. In Texas, a couple of weeks ago, i was talking to the “man of the house,” who was trying to get rid of me, when a female voice came out of the shadows, “I’ll talk to him.” And she did. She didn’t admit to having a single issue that would determine her vote (“We vote for Democrats”) and persistent Inflation was her Top Issue, but she was indicative of the fact that we are talking to more women this year. They want their voices heard. When i got to the end of the Issues Survey and asked whether there were any public services they were lacking, she yelled out to the man who opened the door to get his input. It was interesting.
Hope Springs from Field PAC began knocking on doors again on March 2nd in a grassroots-led effort to prepare the Electoral Battleground in what has been called the First and Second Rounds of a traditional Five Round Canvass. We are taking those efforts to the doors of Democrats and unaffiliated voters with a systematic approach that reminds them not only that Democrats care, but Democrats are determined to deliver the best government possible to all Americans.
Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing, voter registration (and follow-up) and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hopemobilization2024
Hope Springs from Field understands that repeated face to face interactions are critical. And we are among those who believe that Democrats didn’t do as well in the 2020 Congressional races as expected because we didn’t knock on doors — and we didn’t register new voters (while Republicans dud). We are returning to the old school basics: repeated contacts, repeated efforts to remind them of protocols, meeting them were they are. Mentoring those who need it (like first time and newly registered voters). Reminding, reminding, reminding, and then chasing down those voters whose ballots need to be (and can be) cured.
I get asked a lot about whether voters (or volunteers) are excited about this election. And i regularly point out that “excited” isn’t the word i would use. I usually say voters are determined this year, but sometimes i will say, voters are dreading the elections this year. Whether it is the Civil War era abortion ban in Arizona, of the IVF ban in Alabama, voters tell us that this kind of depressing, perpetual news announcements (perhaps going back to the Dobbs decision) seems to make some of the female voters we have talked to feel under constant attack or threat. The threat to Democracy doesn’t help, but it’s not as much a factor.
What has not abated is the feeling of betrayal we are hearing from women at their doors about losing their Right to Privacy, their Right to Reproductive Freedom. And the term betrayal is used. “How Dare They?” even. I have a wife who isn’t afraid to tell me how she feels, and she has, but it is still jarring to hear women say this at their doors. To a stranger (granted, we ask). When i share this with female politicians, they nod and tell me they aren’t surprised. But most men are. And jarring is the right word. (Our rights weren’t reversed.)
One (female) voter put it this way: “this isn’t our father’s election.” Voters are making this clear. And there is a central reality that we see at the doors (and may be missed by, at least, male — and certainly by GOP — politicians. Ever since the the Dobbs decisions, people have underestimated the size of the Reproductive Freedom vote. Knocking on doors in these states where we are circulating petitions, we’ve had voters open up their doors and ask, up front, “do you have the [Reproductive Rights] petition for me to sign?” They are just waiting to come across someone who is circulating. I can’t recall that ever happening before.
And we’ve had volunteers who chose not to canvass with a petition and have the same experience. How do we know that? Because they tell us when they ask for a petition to canvass with. Jarring. Remember?
Because we are knocking on doors in states like Florida with constitutional amendment petitions, we match voter signators against the voter file (VAN), confirming that they are registered to vote at the address. The petitions we turn in won’t be challenged (well, challenges will fail) on that regard.
When Joe Biden wins in November, and he will win, he will want to (have to?) thank the Reproductive Freedom voters of 2024.
Hope Springs has targeted states that have competitive Senate races and/or the Electoral College in 2024, as well as districts that are remapped in ways that offer opportunities or vulnerabilities for Democrats next year (specifically those where a Republican won a Congressional District that voted for Biden in 2022). There is a lot of work to be done! Especially since we have had to expand the map this year.
By starting early, and aiming towards super-compliance with these really, really onerous provisions, Hope Springs from Field seeks to undermine Republican efforts to throw Democrats off the voter rolls, informing voters about the new laws and regulations aimed at them. There’s a lot of work to be done, but fortunately, the three states that are making it most difficult are also states in which you can knock on doors at least 10 months out of the year. And, with your help, we will be there, getting our people to super-comply with these restrictive provisions.
2023 Hope Springs expenses
We are also — this being an election year — adding the Post Cards to New Voters component back into our Voter Outreach, both New Voters we find at their doors as well as New Voters we target in the Voter File.
Our biggest expense is the Voter File. But it is also a fixed cost. That won’t change as we raise and spend more money. Printing literature is our second largest cost. Printing and mailing our our Post Cards to New Voters is our third cost and paying the fees for ActBlue is the smallest of our monthly costs.
But here’s the reality: Identifying Single Issue Voters and Constitutional Amendment supporters and doing GOTV (Get-Out-the-Vote) costs us more money than our regular canvassing because this issue drives volunteer turnout higher and higher and we reach more voters. Which means we have to buy more lit to distribute and other minor expenses (like water for volunteers). We are starting earlier, and staying in the field longer, for this election year. So please:
If you are able to support our efforts to protect Democratic voters, especially in minority communities, expand the electorate, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection, please help:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hopemobilization2024
If you would rather send a check, you can follow that link for our mailing address at the bottom of the ActBlue page. Thank you for your support. This work depends upon you!
