“The Vice Presidency isn’t worth a pitcher of warm piss” — John Nance Garner (FDR’s first VP 1933-41)
Picking a VP
Does a VP pick help a presidential aspirant? Probably not much. But the candidate looking for a number two should assume it does. Political wisdom says a running mate should ‘balance the ticket.’ Which usually means a white man should pick a minority or a woman — with extra points for a minority woman. It is a bonus if that candidate is from a swing state.
Considering that, let us look at Trump’s potential VP picks. Note: there are comments on rumored sexuality, appearance, and physique because this piece looks at the candidates through Trump’s eyes — not the author’s.
Trump’s candidates
The one sure fact about Trump’s new running mate is that it will not be his old one. In 2016, Trump picked Mike Pence. Political logic demanded that the godless man needed a man of God to shore up his evangelical support. This wisdom was common before anyone knew the religious fundamentalists would line up to kiss God-free orange ass. Back then, we thought conservative evangelicals were Christians.
Don and Mike’s political bromance ended badly. Pence thought his boss had perhaps overstepped the mark. Trump thought MAGA should lynch his #2. This difference of opinion has left the spot wide open for a new opportunist — raising two questions: Who? And: Who knows?
To answer that. I will ignore political prognosticators and instead rely on bettors for the current contenders’ rankings. To that end, see below for the current VP odds at various bookie sites.
Tim Scott
Pro: He is Black and obsequious. Even though he ran against Trump in the GOP primaries, he never disparaged the candidate. After dropping out of the race, he quickly endorsed Trump over Nikki Haley, despite the ex-SC Governor appointing him a Senator. He is devout — always a selling point in the GOP for anyone not Trump. The always-smiling Scott has not particularly offended anyone. And in a time of crazy, a soft-spoken Senator may be a calming presence.
Con: Scott is an unmarried 58-year-old representative of a party where an unmarried man past a certain age causes comment. Especially as he is no Warren Beatty — a man late to matrimony but with an exuberant dating record. Before his presidential run, Scott announced he was engaged to Mindy Noce, whom he has called a “good Christian lady" he met on a Bible study app. So perhaps that will put rumors to rest. Although it will not stifle the cynics
Scott’s more significant problem is that while Trump likes to keep ass-kissers around (see Lindsey Graham), he has the hots for strong men. And Scott is not that. He cemented his beta status with a cringy "I just love you!" shoutout to Trump before the NH primary.
Tulsi Gabbard
Pro: She is a minority (Samoan-American) woman. An ex-Democrat, she could support a specious claim that Trump is trying to expand his appeal. She is a fixture on Fox, even subbing for Tucker Carlson. Gabbard is stridently anti-Muslim. Although she is also pro-Syrian President Bashar al-Assad — perhaps she thinks he is one of the good ones because he likes to slaughter his co-religionists. In addition, she worked for The Alliance for Traditional Marriage and Values, an anti-gay marriage PAC founded by her father to pass an amendment giving Hawaii the power to "reserve marriage to opposite-sex couples;"
Con: She is Hindu. Her need for publicity is anathema to the man who must dominate the media bandwidth. She backed Bernie Sanders in 2016 and Biden in 2020. And there is no guarantee she will stick with the MAGA program.
Elise Stefanik
Pro: Her loyalty to Trump is her political identity. During the 2016 campaign, Stefanik harshly criticized Trump for his incendiary rhetoric and policies, saying he “has been insulting to women.” But as soon as she sensed that Trump was the GOP’s future, she went all in. She was against his impeachment. And for his claims of a stolen election.
She lobbied for and got the #3 job in the GOP House, Chair of the House Republican Conference. And she is determined not to suffer the fate of her predecessor, Liz Cheney.
Con: Trump is shallow. Is the matronly (despite being only 39) Stefanik pretty enough for him?
Ben Carson
Pro: He is black — but not in a civil rights way. And his up-by-his-bootstraps biography is impressive — although there are the typical fabrications. (He claimed he had received a scholarship offer from West Point — they have no record he applied. And the Academy is free — it does not award scholarships.) He was Trump’s sole HUD secretary. And did nothing particularly embarrassing beyond his furniture purchases.
Con: He is boring — will Trump want two white bread VPs in a row? Worse he is a poor fit for Trump’s new-found expediency (let the states decide) on abortion. Carson, who wants a national abortion ban, once compared women’s choice to slavery and said he wants the procedure outlawed with no exceptions for cases of rape or incest.
Nikki Haley
Pro: On paper, this would be an excellent choice. Haley has the resume. She was a Governor and Trump’s Ambassador to the UN. She is a woman of color. Haley did fight a short but bitter campaign against Trump. But he is easily mollified by shows of contrition from former rivals. And it would give him much of the residual c.15% support she still receives from the GOP primary voters a month after she dropped out of the race.
Con: Everyone who has taken on Trump has either run away, been fired, or kissed the ring. So far, Haley has done none of those things. Haley is one of the few Republicans who have non-Trump credibility for a future run. Normally, the VP for a second-term president has a leg up in the next presidential election. But if Trump wins in 2024, he will not leave willingly. Haley is better off keeping her skirts clean for a run after Biden’s second term
Marco Rubio
Pro: He is Latino. He has good name recognition. He has experience. He speaks well. He has moved on from his ‘small hands’ apostasy. And Trump loves grovelers and apologists.
Con: He is short (a fact he tried to hide with zip-up booties). And he has a comb-over. Trump hates what he perceives as physical shortcomings (see Stefanik). In addition, he is a Floridian. So the Constitution requires he or Trump must move — and you know Trump will not.
Doug Burgum
Pro: Unlike many supposed business candidates, Burgum is the real deal. He parlayed modest equity (he mortgaged the family farm) into a billion-dollar tech/real estate concern. And he has executive political experience as the Governor of North Dakota. He focuses on fiscal/economic issues. But has signed anti-CRT and anti-trans healthcare bills into law
Con: He has zero name recognition. Of course, neither did Mike Pence. While not a never-Trumper, he is also not a drum-banging fan. Burgum has largely ignored him. And he has been pro-LGBTQ.
Kristi Noem
Pro: She is a woman. She is the Governor of South Dakota (when was the last time both Dakotas were in a presidential campaign conversation). She is a telegenic, ultra-MAGA, unapologetic Trump ass. She sent SD’s national guard to the Mexico border. And she would be a fine political wife for the adulterer.
Con: She is a dog killer — which is a political mortal sin, even in MAGAland. Worse was her glee at the execution. She also faces claims of abusing her office, getting her teeth done out of state, and promoting the dental company without declaring her financial interest in it. None of which is necessarily a deal breaker for a Republican. But the canicide has killed her career.
There are other candidates the punters have yet to like
Greg Abbot
Forget it. Trump will not campaign with a guy in a wheelchair
J.D. Vance
Big book. Medium movie. Huge ass-kisser. Why not?
Vivek Ramaswamy
Too much ego.
Ron DeSantis
Useless on the campaign trail. A genuine loser. A GOP soy boy.
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
Weird looks. But she did handle the podiumgate brouhaha well.
Kari Lake
Too nuts even for Trump. Has worn out her welcome.
Tucker Carlson
No way. Trump has to make a play for the independents
Byron Donalds
Young conservative Black guy. 100% MAGA. Why not? He may live in Florida now, but he could always move back to NY.
Who will it be?
No one can say. Even Trump has no idea. And he will not announce it until the last possible moment so he can keep yanking chains. However, unlike in 2016 when the establishment influenced his choice, in 2024, Mango Unchained will not let anyone get in his way of picking someone bad for America.
Or as John Nance Garner also called the VP, the president’s “spare tire.”