Bennett Petts & Normington, DCCC. 10/8-9. Likely voters. MoE 4.9%.
Reichert (R) 44
Burner (D) 49
Note that's registered vs. likely voters. Update: the poll is of likely voters. Given the vast numbers of new registrants in the district, and the motivation this election year, I'm not sure how much of a difference there is between the two groups. But this is better news for Burner than the Research 2000 poll from last week that gave Reichert an eight point edge.
In the wake of last week's poll, Stoller posted his theory as to why this race wasn't following national trends favoring the Democrats.
That big green dot in the upper left part of the map is Seattle, which is actually doing relatively well economically compared to the rest of the country. This region is heavily dependent on export led growth and resource extraction, both of which have done well in a time of a weakening dollar and high commodity prices. Just two months ago, Gregoire was still bragging about the number of jobs she had helped create as a reason to reelect her, a striking difference between the rest of the country and this area.
There are more stats that bear this out; housing prices are only 6.9% below their peak in Seattle, one of the best performances of any city in the country (Portland, OR is better on housing values, but its economy is not doing well). Seattle is also the single best metropolitan area in terms of number of recent home buyers who are under water, at 11%, and housing is still substantially overvalued here. In other words, the bubble hasn't popped in this area, and so the impact of the financial crisis has been different.
That part of Stoller's analysis (along with the fact that Reichert is a local hero and celebrity) is spot on, I think. Washington state, particularly western Washington, hasn't been hit nearly as hard by the foreclosure crisis and economic meltdown as the rest of the nation. Economic concerns have been there, but not as prevalent as in the rest of the nation largely because the housing market is still relatively strong. But the economic turmoil that drives the stock market on its wild swings, along with everyone's 401Ks (particularly all those folks with lots of shares of Microsoft), is sinking in.
This is going to be one of the tightest races in the country. This poll shows that Darcy is still very much in it.
On the Web:
Darcy Burner for Congress
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