Summary:
PA has 19 representatives: 10 D, 8 R
RI has 2 representatives, both D
SC has 6 reps: 4 Republicans and 2 Democrats
SD has 1 rep: A Democrat
Possibly vulnerable:
PA-03 (D)
PA-04 (D)
PA-06 (R)
PA-07 (D)
PA-08 (D)
PA-10 (D)
PA-11 (D)
PA-12 (D)
PA-15 (R)
PA-16 (R)
RI-01 (D)
SC-02 (R)
SC-05 (D)
SD-AL (D)
Sources:
House vote in 2008 from Wikipedia
VoteView (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)
Race Tracker
Obama vote by CD from Swing State (other stuff there too).
and my previous diaries.
FEC
and Steve Singiser's diaries here on daily Kos (which I checked for about 3 weeks).
District: PA-01
Location Philadelphia and suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 35
Representative Robert Brady (D)
VoteView 83
First elected 1998
2008 margin 91-9 over Mike Muhammad
2006 margin Unopposed
2004 margin 86-13
Obama margin 88-12
Bush margin 2004 15-84
Current opponents None
Demographics 14th lowest income (median = $28K), 52nd fewest Whites (33%), 27th most Blacks (45%), 9th most Democratic
Assessment No opponent
District: PA-02
Location Philadelphia and suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 38
Representative Chaka Fattah (D)
VoteView 77
First elected 1994
2008 margin 89-11 over Adam Lang
2006 margin 89-9
2004 margin 88-12
Obama margin 90-10
Bush margin 2004 12-87
Current opponents Rick Hellberg
Demographics Demographics 32nd lowest income (median = $31K), 46th fewest Whites (29.9%), 7th most Blacks (60.7%). 4th most Democratic
Assessment Safe. Fattah raised and spent a lot and now has little COH; Hellberg has very little.
District: PA-03
Location Northwestern PA, bordering Lake Erie, OH, and NY map
Cook PVI R + 3
Representative Kathy Dahlkemper (D) over incumbent Phil English
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 52-48
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 49-49
Bush margin 2004 53-47
Current opponents Mike Kelly
Demographics 33rd most Whites (93.7%), 42nd fewest Latinos (1.3%)
Assessment Dahlkemper ousted Phil English, who had been in the House since 1994; she has $600 K COH, Kelly has $215K but is self-financed. Dahlkemper should be OK, but she is a freshman in a swing district. A recent Republican poll had Kelly up 56-39. An independent poll had Kelly up 44-37, and another had him up 49-36
SSP rating: Lean R
My rating: Lean R
District: PA-04
Location Western PA, bordering OH map
Cook PVI R + 6
Representative Jason Altmire (D)
VoteView 236
First elected 2006
2008 margin 56-44 over Melissa Hart
2006 margin 52-48
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 44-55
Bush margin 2004 54-45
Current opponents Keith Rothfus
Demographics 21st most White (94.3%), tied for fewest Latinos (0.6%)
Assessment Altmire ousted Hart in 2006; he has $600 K COH; Rothfus has $130K, but that includes a hefty loan. This is a Republican district, but Altmire, one of the most conservative Democrats in the House, seems to suit it. A recent Republican poll had Altmire up 47-35, another R poll had him up 47-36
SSP rating: Lean D
My rating: Safe
District: PA-05
Location Northern PA, bordering NY map
Cook PVI R + 9
Representative Glenn Thompson (R)
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 57-41 over Mark McCracken
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 44-54
Bush margin 2004 61-39
Current opponents Michael Pipe
Demographics 32nd most rural (54%), 6th lowest income (median = $33K), 6th most Whites (96%), 47th fewest Blacks (1.3%), 11th fewest Latinos (0.8%).
Assessment Safe for Republican. Thompson has $250K COH, Pipe has little.
District: PA-06
Location West of Philadelphia map
Cook PVI D + 4
Representative Jim Gerlach (R)
VoteView 253
First elected 2002
2008 margin 52-48
2006 margin 51-49
2004 margin 51-49
Obama margin 58-41
Bush margin 2004 48-51
Current opponents Manan Trivedi
Demographics 70th highest income (median = $56K)
Assessment A prime pickup possibility. This district is trending Democratic, and Gerlach won narrowly in every election. Gerlach has $370K COH, Trivedi $280K. A recent poll had Gerlach up 54-44
SSP rating: Lean R
My rating: Lean R
District: PA-07
Location Southeastern PA, bordering DE, including King of Prussia map
Cook PVI D + 3
Representative Joe Sestak (D) Running for Senate
VoteView NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 56-43
Bush margin 2004 47-53
Current opponents Bryan Lentz (D) vs. Patrick Meehan (R)
Demographics 67th highest income (median = $56K), 41st fewest Latinos (1.3%)
Assessment This district is fairly Democratic, but most analysts seem to call this a tossup. Lentz has almost $400K COH, Meehan about $600 K. A recent poll had Meehan up 34-31, another 40-39, and another 49-45
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: Lean R
District: PA-08
Location The southeast corner of PA, bordering NJ; mostly Bucks County map
Cook PVI D + 2
Representative Patrick Murphy (D)
VoteView 187
First elected 2006
2008 margin 57-42 over Tom Manion
2006 margin 1418 votes out of 250,000
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 54-45
Bush margin 2004 48-51
Current opponents Mike Fitzpatrick
Demographics 44th highest income (median = $59K)
Assessment Murphy has $600 K COH, Fitzpatrick about $500 K. A recent poll had Murphy up by 3, another had Fitzpatrick up by 5
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: Tossup
District: PA-09
Location The central part of southern PA, bordering MD and a little of WV map
Cook PVI R + 17
Representative Bill Shuster (R)
VoteView 340
First elected 2001
2008 margin 64-36 over Tony Barr
2006 margin 60-40
2004 margin 69-30
Obama margin 45-53
Bush margin 2004 60-40
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 19th most rural (59.5%), 3rd most White (96.4%), 60th fewest Blacks (1.6%), 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%), 2nd fewest nonBlack, nonWhite, nonLatino.
Assessment No opponent
District: PA-10
Location Northeastern PA, bordering NY and NJ map
Cook PVI R + 8
Representative Christopher Carney (D)
VoteView 234
First elected 2006
2008 margin 56-44 over Chris Hackett
2006 margin 53-47
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 45-53
Bush margin 2004 60-40
Current opponents Tom Marino
Demographics 27th most rural (55.4%), 9th most White (95.5%), 71st least Black (1.9%), 51st least Latinos (1.4%)
Assessment This is a fairly vulnerable district, at R +8; Carney has about $270K COH, Marino has little. A recent poll had it tied, a Republican poll had Marino ahead 41-37. Another had Marino up 44-38, and another 47-42 but a Democratic poll had Carney ahead by 48-41
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: Tossup
District: PA-11
Location Eastern PA, including Scranton and Wilkes-Barre map
Cook PVI D + 4
Representative Paul Kanjorski (D)
VoteView 169.5
First elected 1984
2008 margin 52-48 over Lou Barletta
2006 margin 72-28
2004 margin 94-6 against a minor party
Obama margin 57-42
Bush margin 2004 47-53
Current opponents Lou Barletta
Demographics 97th lowest income (median = $35K)
Assessment Vulnerable. Kanjorski has $400 K COH, Barletta about $200K but self-financed. A poll had Barletta ahead 43-41, another had him ahead 47-40
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: Tossup
District: PA-12
Location An odd, thready district in southwest PA map
Cook PVI R + 1
Representative Mark Critz(D)
VoteView NA
First elected Won special election against Burns in 2010 after John Murtha died
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 49-49
Bush margin 2004 51-49
Current opponents Tim Burns
Demographics 32nd poorest (median income = $31K), 16th most Whites (95.0%). 3rd fewest Latinos (0.6%)
Assessment Murtha won here easily, year after year, but with him gone, it's more vulnerable. Burns has about $250 K.
Critz about $50K. A Republican poll had Critz up 43-36
SSP rating: Lean D
My rating: Lean D
District: PA-13
Location Northeast Philadelphia and suburbs and exurbs of Philadelphia map
Cook PVI D + 7
Representative Allyson Schwartz (D)
VoteView 162
First elected 2004
2008 margin 63-35 over Marina Kats
2006 margin 66-34
2004 margin 56-44
Obama margin 58-41
Bush margin 2004 43-56
Current opponents Dee Adcock
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe. Schwartz has $2.3 million COH, Adcock about $175K but self-financed.
District: PA-14
Location Pittsburgh and suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 19
Representative Mike Doyle (D)
VoteView 112.5
First elected 1994
2008 margin 91-9 over a Green party candidate
2006 margin 90-10 (against a green)
2004 margin unopposed
Obama margin 70-29
Bush margin 2004 30-69
Current opponents Melissa Haluszczak
Demographics 26th lowest income (median = $30K), 71st most Blacks (22.5%)
Assessment Safe. Doyle has $300K COH, Haluszczak has little
District: PA-15
Location Central part of eastern PA, including Allentown and Bethlehem, bordering NJ map
Cook PVI D + 2
Representative Charles Dent (R)
VoteView 255
First elected 2004
2008 margin 59-41 over Sam Bennett
2006 margin 54-43
2004 margin 59-39
Obama margin 56-43
Bush margin 2004 50-50
Current opponents John Callahan
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Bennett (who I liked) had some local problems, Callahan has a good chance. Callahan has about $365K COH, Dent about $300K. A recent poll had Dent up 49-32, even a Democratic poll had Dent up, 45-43
SSP rating: Lean R
My rating: Likely R
District: PA-16
Location Southeastern PA, centering on Lancaster map
Cook PVI R + 8
Representative Joe Pitts (R)
VoteView 405
First elected 1996
2008 margin 56-39 over Bruce Slater
2006 margin 57-40
2004 margin 64-34
Obama margin 48-51
Bush margin 2004 62-38
Current opponents Lois Herr
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Might be vulnerable. Pitts has $280K COH, Herr about $100K
My rating: Likely R
District: PA-17
Location South and east of central PA, including Harrisburg map
Cook PVI R + 6
Representative Tim Holden (D)
VoteView 192.5
First elected 1992
2008 margin 64-36 over Toni Gillhooley
2006 margin 65-35
2004 margin 59-39
Obama margin 48-51
Bush margin 2004 58-42
Current opponents David Argall
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Holden has won easily, even in this
Republican district. Should be safe. Holden has about $160K COH, Argall about $55K. Even a recent Republican poll had Holden up by a lot.
SSP rating: Likely D
My rating: Safe
District: PA-18
Location Suburbs of Pittsburgh map
Cook PVI R + 6
Representative Tim Murphy (R)
VoteView 259
First elected 2002
2008 margin 64-36 over Steve O'Donnell
2006 margin 58-42
2004 margin 63-37
Obama margin 44-55
Bush margin 2004 54-46
Current opponents Daniel Connolly
Demographics 10th most Whites (95.4%), 77th fewest Blacks (2.0%), tied for fewest Latinos (0.6%)
Assessment Safe for Republican. Murphy has $700K COH, O'Donnell very little.
District: PA-19
Location Southern PA including Gettysburg map
Cook PVI R + 12
Representative Todd Platts (R)
VoteView 254
First elected 2000
2008 margin 67-33 over Phillip Avilo
2006 margin 91-4 against a Green
2004 margin 64-36
Obama margin 43-56
Bush margin 2004 64-36
Current opponents Ryan Sanders
Demographics 68th most Whites (92.2%)
Assessment Safe for Republican. Platts has very little COH, but Sanders has less, and this is a very Republican district.
District: RI-01
Location Northern and eastern RI, bordering MA and CT map
Cook PVI D + 13
Representative Patrick Kennedy (D) Retiring
VoteView 89
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 65-33
Bush margin 2004 36-62
Current opponents David Cicciline (D) John Loughlin (R)
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe for whichever Democrat wins; it's an overwhelmingly D district. Cicciline has $200K COH, Loughlin about $100. A recent Republican poll had it tied. A slightly earlier poll had Cicciline up 47-36
SSP rating: Likely D
My rating: Likely D
District: RI-02
Location Most of the state map
Cook PVI D + 9
Representative Jim Langevin (D)
VoteView 146
First elected 2000
2008 margin 70-30 over Mark Zaccaria
2006 margin 73-27 against an independent
2004 margin 75-21
Obama margin 61-37
Bush margin 2004 41-57
Current opponents Zaccaria again.
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe. Langevin has $400K COH, Zaccaria has little. A poll had Langevin up 65-26
District: SC-01
Location Almost all of coastal SC, bordering NC and the Atlantic, including Charleston map
Cook PVI R + 10
Representative Henry Brown (R) Retiring
VoteView NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 42-56
Bush margin 2004 61-39
Current opponents Democrat Ben Frasier, Republican Tim Scott
Demographics 17th most veterans (17.2%), 78th most Blacks (20.9%)
Assessment A very Republican district. Scott has about $280K COH, Frasier has little.
District: SC-02
Location Southern SC, stretching north to the middle of the state, bordering GA and the Atlantic, including Columbia map
Cook PVI R + 9
Representative Joe Wilson (R)
VoteView 404
First elected 2001
2008 margin 54-46 over Robert Miller
2006 margin 63-37
2004 margin 65-33
Obama margin 45-54
Bush margin 2004 60-39
Current opponents Robert Miller is running again.
Demographics 70th most veterans (15.1%), 60th most Blacks (26.2%)
Assessment Might be possible, Miller wasn't that far back in 2008. But not likely. Wilson has $600K COH, Miller has $200K. Even a recent Democratic poll had Wilson up by a lot
SSP rating: Likely R
My rating: Safe for R
District: SC-03
Location Northwestern SC, bordering GA map
Cook PVI R + 17
Representative Gresham Barrett (R) retiring to run for governor
VoteView NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 35-64
Bush margin 2004 66-34
Current opponents Republican Jeff Duncan, Democrat Jane Dyer
Demographics 49th most rural (49.7%), 80th most Blacks (20.5%), 36th most Republican
Assessment Pretty sure to be Republican. Neither candidate has much COH
District: SC-04
Location Northern SC, bordering NC map
Cook PVI R + 15
Representative Bob Inglis (R) Lost primary
VoteView 402.5
First elected 2004
2008 margin 60-37 over Paul Corden
2006 margin 64-32
2004 margin 70-29
Obama margin 38-60
Bush margin 2004 65-34
Current opponents Republican Dave Edwards, Democrat Paul Corden
Demographics Not unusual on what I track.
Assessment Another very Republican district. Both have little COH.
District: SC-05
Location map
Cook PVI R + 7
Representative John Spratt (D)
VoteView 198.5
First elected 1988
2008 margin 62-37 over Albert Spencer
2006 margin 57-43
2004 margin 63-37
Obama margin 46-53
Bush margin 2004 57-42
Current opponents Mick Mulvaney
Demographics 35h most rural (53.3%), 80th fewest Latinos (1.8%)
Assessment Spratt has $800 K COH, Mulvaney about $450K, but a lot from himself.
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating:
District: SC-06
Location Southeastern quarter of SC, bordering the Atlantic, excluding Charleston map
Cook PVI D + 12
Representative James Clyburn (D)
VoteView 67
First elected 1992
2008 margin 68-32 over Nancy Harrelson
2006 margin 64-34
2004 margin 67-31
Obama margin 64-35
Bush margin 2004 39-61
Current opponents Jim Pratt
Demographics 40th most rural (52.0%), 17th lowest income (median = $29K) 66th fewest Whites (40.3%), 14th most Blacks (56.7%), 58th fewest Latinos (1.5%)
Assessment Safe. Clyburn has $1.2 million COH, Pratt has little
District: SD-AL
Location The whole state map
Cook PVI R + 9
Representative Stephanine Herseth Sandlin (D)
VoteView 215
First elected 2004
2008 margin 68-32 over Chris Lien
2006 margin 69-29
2004 margin 53-46
Obama margin 45-53
Bush margin 2004 60-38
Current opponents Kristi Noem
Demographics 58th most rural (48.1%), 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%), 51st fewest Latinos (1.4%), 66th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatino (mostly 8.1% Native Americans).
Assessment Sandlin has about $200K COH, Noem has about $500K
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: