The Hispanic population is much larger than the only other major demographic group which is growing at a comparable rate, Asian Americans. McCain won 31 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2008. The Pew / Post survey reveals that President Obama leads Romney among Hispanics by 68 percent to 23 percent. The President has a 54 percent approval rating among Hispanics in that survey; Gallup found it to be 60 percent.
This is important because the Hispanic vote will likely prove decisive in Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, and Nevada. Supposing Romney to be the nominee, Iowa is likely to stay with President Obama. Putting that state with the Kerry states plus Nevada and New Mexico yields a reelection win for President Obama. And that is the most cautious path to 270 electoral votes. The Hispanic non Cuban population will position Obama well for a win in Florida regardless of Veep Rubio. Kasich and SB 5 make the President the favorite to win Ohio. The President's numbers in Virginia polling reveal him to be ahead of Romney and the President is surprisingly still competitive in North Carolina.
This diary was based off of an article from www.thinkprogress.org and www.talkingpointsmemo.com .
12:33 AM PT: To be clear: Kerry states + Iowa + Colorado + New Mexico + Nevada is the combination of states that I am saying puts President Obama over the 270 electoral votes needed to win reelection.
12:33 AM PT: To be clear: Kerry states + Iowa + Colorado + New Mexico + Nevada is the combination of states that I am saying puts President Obama over the 270 electoral votes needed to win reelection.