County |
Obama (%) |
McCain (%) |
Total |
Adams (pt) |
18,922 (53.96%) |
15,480 (44.14%) |
35,068 |
Araphoe (pt) |
132,652 (55.68%) |
102,103 (42.86%) |
238,234 |
Douglas |
23,432 (44.27%) |
29,006 (54.80%) |
52,931 |
Total |
175,007 (53.65%) |
146,5896 (44.93%) |
326,232 |
The effects of redistricting dramatically changed the district from a 53%-46% McCain (PVI-R+8) district into a 54%-45% Obama district.
However in the 2010 US Senate race, the votes was 50/50 between Bennet and Buck. The district also voted for Republican Walker Stapleton over Democrat Cary Kennedy.
While the 3 Democrat held CDs all have Democratic Party registrations, CO-06 has a 1% Republican registration advantage (33%D, 34% R, 32% Unaffiliated).
Redistribution
The new 6th took the urban and suburban parts of the old 6th and merged them with the Aurora and Brighton portions of the old 7th, effectively becoming an Eastern collar district around Denver. There are 419,961 (58.45%) from the old 6th, 263,833 (36.72%) from the old 7th, 22,280 (3.10%) from the old 2nd, and 12,382 (1.72%) from the old 1st.
JOE MIKLOSI
Joe Miklosi seems to be a hard working candidate who is backed by the Colorado Democratic establishment. To see how competitive he can be I have looked at his endorsements/party backing, fundraising, campaign, opponent/s, electoral experience and and policy platform.
I also look at the numbers for CO-06 and the various Senate Districts and House Districts "nested" within CO-06.
Mojo
If only mojo could get you over the line, Ryan Taylor would be a certainty for Governor of... probably both Dakotas. But it certainly can help in a tight race. Miklosi isn't up on the air yet (no primary so no adds I guess) but he does have his launch speech and there are a few other things on youtube. He certainly seems passionate and seems to have what it takes...
Launch Speech
Endorsements
Miklosi is a Red to Blue Candidate backed by the DCCC. He started out in the CO-06 as a hard working opponent who through sheer luck somehow found that he had a golden opportunity. After a small period where some top tier primary opponents entered the race, he since had the way to November cleared for him. Not only that but unless my eyes deceive me, he has the endorsement of every Democratic State House Representative ! All 31 of his colleagues appear to have endorsed him. Then all the current Colorado Dem congressmen, both Senators and many local councillors in CO-06.
State Senators on the other hand haven't been as consistent although he has the support of all three Arapahoe State Senators, and two from Denver: Linda Newell, Suzanne Williams, Morgan Carroll, Pat Steadman, and Irene Aguilar. So from his website it doesn't look like the Governor and State Senate Leadership have endorsed him, he seems to have a huge amount of endorsements, when compared to most other Dem candidates. While I am not sure how much endorsements help - it is certainely a sign of confidence in him that he has so many. He is also endorsed by the AFL-CIO.
Clearing the Primary
As David and others described in detail blow by blow, Miklosi had some prominent company in the Dem Primary for a little while, albeit most interested parties deferred to Miklosi.
Brandon Shaffer, the current Colorado State Senate Leader, based in Longmont in CO-04 considered shifting to the more competitive race but decided in February against it.
Physician/Business Owner Perry Haney was also in the race, but dropped out in February despite having more money than Miklosi (courtesy of self funding), probably due to Republican complaints to the FEC. By the time 4th Quarter 2011 fundraising was due, businessman Perry Haney had raised $16K, spent $84K and had $353K in COH.
Fundraising
Miklosi is not a particularly strong or weak fundraiser:
Pre-Primary FEC Report - Raised ($176K) Spent ($114K), COH ($394K)
1st Quarter 2012 - Raised ($235K) Spent ($70K), COH ($338K)
4th Quarter 2011 - Raised ($104K) Spent ($27K), COH ($174K)
9th July 2011 - Declared for CO-06
It has been reported that Steve Farber, a Denver attorney and registered democrat who lead the fundraising effort to bring the 2008 DNC Convention to Denver was hosting a $500 a head fundraiser for Coffman.
Campaign
Well like many other campaigns, Miklosi got had various shake ups this year with staff changes. He had a dispute with his finance director Kirsten Boyd, daughter of term limited Democratic State Senator Betty Boyd, who still may not have been paid. Other staffing changes include shifting his campaign manager Dean Meinen to Campaign Political Director and bringing in Joe Hammill. None of this would appear to be too unusual for a first congressional run I would have thought, but it certainly hasn't been smooth sailing. It is worth noting that prior to running for the Colorado State House, Miklosi worked for Progressive Majority, so he should have some skills relevant to campaigning.
In an attempt to try and overshadow his own gaffes, Coffman has caught Miklosi saying that the DCCC pays for several of his staff. This is meant to show that he is a Washington insider but is really just a bit of good news for Dems that show Miklosi is getting some help from DCCC to win in 2012.
Policy Platform
His page seems to be stock standard mainstream Dem, yet hits all the right notes. His first diary however seems to far better articulate his policy platform. He sponsered online registration - I wonder how much difference it will make ? I am thinking a lot, particularly younger voters who would be far more likely to take the time to register online, yet might not register otherwise. He also appears to have sponsered or co-sponsored bills in support of the Dream Act, and same sex civil unions. His website does have a good note about Coffman's support for the Ryan Plan and other Republican attacks on Medicare:
The 6th congressional district would have been the 10th most negatively impacted congressional district in the entire country had those bills passed and 74,000 residents would have lost their Medicare and each resident would have had to pay an additional $6,400 a year.
Opponent - Mike Coffman
Is Mike Coffman the right type of candidate for this seat ? You have to remember that he inherited the 6th district from Tom Tancredo, so he has always been running as a hard right Republican in a hard right district. The infamous comment he made about Obama was made in Elbert County a rural county in the old 6th that is removed from the new 6th. Coffman was once Secretary of State, where he did his best to make it hard for people to register to vote, and shockingly had a
fair degree of perceived control at the very least over the voting process in CO-06 when he first ran for congress. The software salesman for the machines used in vote counting owned a loft that Coffman's State Elections Director was staying in! The machines were purchased by Colorado when Coffman was SOS. It is so disgusting... A diary by
Wade Norris is a good read.
Apologizing For Being Caught Being A Birther
Coffman finally made a real apology - which may have simply been to put the whole matter to bed after his pathetic fake apology, or hopefully it shows that he is worried about being in a more moderate district. He later admitted that while he was wrong he did at least party apologise for political purposes.
Miklosi Campaign's Crafty Quoting
Coffman Fundraising
Coffman is a typical cashed up incumbent:
Pre-Primary FEC Report - Raised ($320K) Spent ($102K), COH ($1.586M)
1st Quarter 2012 - Raised ($526K) Spent ($121K), COH ($1.369M)
4th Quarter 2011 - Raised ($423K) Spent ($64K), COH ($961K)
Opponent - Kathy Polhemus
Yep this is a real problem right here - Kathy Polhemus might as well be Mike Coffman's campaign chair. Blah blah blah I am a moderate - system is broken - I will get 2 or 3% of the vote to give Coffman an edge. I love how this former Democrat has to pick a race where she can function as a devastating spoiler. As I write this, I am struggling to be polite - but I can't see how this is anything but a real vanity project. As if Kathy is going to change this Congress - yet another independent trying to steal the Democratic vote to promote bipartisanship/independence. The problem is on the Republican side... The Dems have constantly compromised... for almost nothing. If you want to have a look at this fiercely independent webpage go ahead. She has raised $40K so far apparently. Very disappointing. Apparently she views Miklosi as too liberal for the district. I find her typical talking points amusing - have heard these before.
CO-06 Polling/Early Voting
There has not been any polls released for this district. Early voting has begun and Republicans have a large turnout advantage across the board in Colorado so far. To be fair, the only Statewide race has no Democratic primary, but does have a hotly contested Republican primary.
Upballot Races - NEW POLL
There are only two upballot races this year - the Presidential Race, and the Colorado University Regent role. In Miklosi's favour is the President's Hispanic pitch.
Latino Decisions and America's Voice have released polling showing Colorado Hispanics favour him 70% to 22%! After the birther comments it is tougher to see any Obama/Coffman voters... Advantage Miklosi.
NEW POLL Methodology:
Full results by state are here and archived with others at our Recent Polls page. Latino Decisions interviewed 2,000 Latino registered voters between June 12-21, 2012 using live telephone callers, sampled across five states, with 400 each in AZ, CO, FL, NV, VA. A mix of landline and cell phone-only households were called, and up to 5 attempts were made per number. Latino respondents had the opportunity to complete the survey in either English or Spanish, using fully bilingual callers, and overall 38% of Latinos chose to complete the survey in Spanish. Data are weighted to the state proportion of the Latino population across the five states for a combined battleground sample as well as weighted accurately within each state. Overall, the entire sample has a margin of error of +- 2.2% and each state sample has a margin of error of +- 4.9%. Additional survey results, including Congressional vote and policy attitudes will be reported later this month.
Ballot Question
Apparently there is a ballot question on whether to decriminalize pot - and there is speculation this will bring out the youth vote. Haven't looked into this one, but if it works, it works.
Electoral Environment
It seems that the Secretary of State, Scott Gessler (a Republican) is continuing to run the place like Mike Coffman - he doesn't want to send ballots out to inactive voters. You guessed it, inactive means they didn't vote in 2010. What an assault on democracy, they don't care about stealing elections do they ? Fortunately the Pueblo County Auditor Gilbert "Bo" Ortiz seems to be trying to keep Gessler honest... by sending ballots to those registered voters who missed 2010. And Gessler the fascist - is suing him over it. He also sued Debra Johnson, the Denver County Clerk over the same issue. He lost in the interim however, she was allowed to send them out for the primary. We will see what the final ruling will be going forward. Ortiz points out that to not send ballots to all serving military personnel, whether they are "active" or "inactive" registered voters would be in violation of federal law.
State Senate/House Districts in CO-06
See below the fold for the details, but in the down ballot races the Democrats are competitive holding 5 of 7 State Senate Seats and 4 of 10 State House Seats, with redistricting set to deliver one more. It is pretty clear that the area is a bit of a bellwether for Colorado. Generally for both side, local legislators are well represented in Party Leadership.