Short answer: Most pollsters don't know or don't care how to accurately measure the Latino vote. Specialty pollster Latino Decisions' Dr. David Damore explains:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...
1)Most pollsters are assuming lower Latino turnout than is probable in CO in 2014
2)Likely voter screens are eliminating Latinos who will vote
3)Latino sample sizes are very small in most polls,
4)These small samples are not representative within the Latino voter community
5)The unrepresentative samples systematically bias results when upweighted
In particular, cell-phone only, Spanish-speaking, lower socio-economic status Latinos, who are the most Democratic of all Latino voters, are the most difficult (and costly) voters to include in a poll. Thus, even if polls include both Spanish language and non-landline sampling frames, they are unlikely to capture a representative cross-section of Latino voters. Instead, polls are likely to over-sample more English speaking, higher income, and Republican leaning Latinos.
Because of this, pollsters are dramatically and systematically underestimating Democratic support for Mark Udall for CO-Sen and John Hickenlooper for CO-Gov.
Polling aggregators, who fail to account for this systematic bias, are significantly overestimating GOP chances of an upset in the CO-Sen race.
8:22 AM PT: If you'd like to help GOTV in Colorado, here's a diary about doing so from Southern California:
http://www.dailykos.com/...
11:28 AM PT: rblinne, a Kossack volunteering with the Udall campaign, has more info about how the responses from Dr. Jazz's phonebanking will be used.
http://www.dailykos.com/...