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8:52 AM PT: WI-06: We've already made a pretty compelling case that Glenn Grothman is the craziest Republican running for Congress this year, but here's another strong piece of evidence for our argument: Retiring Rep. Tom Petri, a fellow member of the GOP, is refusing to endorse Grothman to succeed him. Could it be because Grothman took a huge dump on Petri?
"Why would I endorse a person who has said that if in two years people said he was 'just like Petri' he would be insulted?" Petri said. "I don't want to smother him with love or anything like that."
Yep, probably! Petri was one of the last remaining moderates (or at least, what passes for a moderate these days) in the Republican caucus; Grothman, on the other hand, would probably make Louie Gohmert look reasonable at least one day a week. Probably Saturdays: Grothman is famous for wanting to
eliminate weekends, and I'm going to guess that even the nuttiest teanut in Congress still enjoys those.
Petri, meanwhile, clings to a bygone sense of bipartisanship, do you can understand why Grothman wants nothing to do with Petri—and why the feeling is mutual. Indeed, Petri complimented Grothman's Democratic opponent, Winnebago County Executive Mark Harris, saying he'd done "a fine job" in his current post. Petri also took a back-handed jab at Grothman by encouraging his constituents to attend debates—which Harris has happily participated in but Grothman has refused to attend.
That's because Grothman's handlers know that his incendiary mouth can only get him in trouble. In fact, they've insisted that reporters only send questions to the campaign by email! No matter how hard Grothman tries to hide, though, he can't erase his lunacy from the public record: Harris is running strong ads that showcase Grothman's most bizarre rantings. As the saying goes, crazy will out, but the underfunded Harris still needs a lot of help to make that happen.
10:08 AM PT: SD-Sen: In a huge admission, former South Dakota Gov. Mike Rounds, who is running for Senate, acknowledged Tuesday that he did in fact know that a top former cabinet official, Richard Benda, was going to work for investors running a meat-packing concern called Northern Beef, right around the same time that Rounds signed off on a special $600,000 state loan package to the company that Benda had urged. That money went directly into Benda's pockets, as he paid himself $225,000 a year to oversee the now-failed plant.
Just before Rounds left office at the end of 2010, Benda, then the state's secretary of tourism, pressed for the extra loans for Northern Beef, and Rounds approved the funding. A state audit later found that Benda had a serious conflict of interest in requesting the loans—duh—but until now, we didn't know whether Rounds himself was aware of this glaring conflict. It turns out that he most certainly did:
At the time, though, Rounds didn't ask Benda for more details.
"I said 'Good, I'm glad to hear that he's going to be actively involved in the beef plant,'" Rounds said in a live interview on the Argus Leader's "100 Eyes" online show.
Rounds claimed he couldn't remember whether he learned of Benda's future employment plans before or after the Northern Beef loans went through, but even if he only found out about them after, he surely could have raised an alarm while he still had time. Instead, he went blithely silent.
As for Northern Beef, it's at the center of the EB-5 visa scandal, which is both complex yet very simple. In short, EB-5 allows wealthy foreign investors to jump the line for green cards by putting at least $500,000 into a rural business. During the financial downturn, South Dakota decided it wanted in on the action, and a state official named Joop Bollen ramped up efforts to pull in more investors. He created a private company called SDRC that ultimately brought in $100 million to fund Northern Beef—and allowed him to collect fees off the top.
Benda, who nominally oversaw the state's EB-5 program in his role as tourism secretary, also wanted a piece of the pie, which is why he scored a job with SDRC (which was running Northern Beef) and secured that loan from Rounds to pay his own salary. Northern Beef was a mismanaged debacle, though: It went out of business after less than a year, unable to service its debt and fund operations.
The implosion cost taxpayers at least $4.4 million, and state investigators began taking a close look at the entire mess. But as they began to close in on Benda last fall and an indictment loomed, Benda took his own life.
The EB-5 scandal has badly hurt Rounds and is a key reason South Dakota's Senate race is up for grabs. His new admission that he went along with Benda's scheme to loot state coffers despite being aware of Benda's massive conflict of interest will only hurt him more.
11:22 AM PT: NY-24: Big Dog Alert! Bill Clinton is campaigning with Democratic Rep. Dan Maffei on Friday, just four days after Joe Biden (who has long ties to the Syracuse region) did the same. At one point, this light-blue seat seemed to be off-the-radar for Republicans, but Maffei's definitely vulnerable, hence all the top-shelf help.
11:31 AM PT: KY-Sen: According to Politico, the DSCC is planning to go back on the air to help Alison Grimes in Kentucky, a reversal from the committee's highly publicized decision last week to go dark in the race's final weeks. The DS will reportedly spend $650,000 after being "encouraged by new polls" (public and private) showing a tight race. Perhaps more important than the money, though, is the vote of confidence from D.C. Democrats, though of course, this could be an expensive head-fake.
11:41 AM PT (Taniel): Early voting: Every cycle, Iowa Republicans progressively chip away at Democrats' early voting advantage as Election Day drew near, but Democrats keep a clear edge going into Election Day. What the state's Wednesday morning report shows is more concerning: The GOP has drawn even. Almost exactly so, in fact: 98,492 have been returned by Democrats and 98.322 by Republicans.
And yet, just as it looked like Republicans had all the momentum, Democrats suddenly began outpacing Republicans among absentee ballot requests. Their advantage in this morning's report was 5-percentage points, up from 3-percentage points at the beginning of the week. Will this help Democrats regain an reserve of votes among votes cast before Election Day, or will the GOP overtake registered Democrats in the coming days for the first time?
Monmouth University's new poll out Wednesday found Bruce Braley leading 54 percent to 41 percent among voters who have already cast their ballot. This lead mirrored the 56-38 lead he enjoyed in the most recent Des Moines Register poll, and the 51-37 lead in the most recent Quinnipiac poll. If those numbers are correct, they would suggest that Braley is doing well among the independent voters who have already voted since the already-returned ballots are split equally between the two parties. That said, remember that early voters are a small subsample in these polls, and that the margin of error of these numbers is large.
Nevada is seeing an unprecedented advantage for the GOP. In Clark County, home to Las Vegas, Republicans have outvoted Democrats over the first four days of early voting. This does not bode well for Nevada Democrats, for not only is Clark County the life and blood of state Democrats, but Democrats have had a very strong early voting operation in past cycles. In 2010, when Senator Harry Reid was locked in a tight race with Sharron Angle, registered Democrats had an edge of 8-percentage points after four days of early voting; they now trail by more than 1-percentage points.
Nevada may not have a high-profile Senate or Governor's race, but the state Senate is in play, as are a number of statewide races. And perhaps sensing that the Democratic electorate is not mobilized, Karl Rove's Crossroads is making a late play against Democratic Rep. Horsford in Nevada's fourth congressional district.
11:49 AM PT (Jeff Singer): Ads & Independent Expenditures:
• AK-Sen: Republican Dan Sullivan highlights his record as state attorney general and at the State Department, while tying Democratic Sen. Mark Begich to Obama. The NRSC also continues to attack Begich's record as mayor of Anchorage and in the Senate. They throw in a pun where they change the word "baggage" to "Begich." Have you picked yourself up off the floor yet, or are you still laughing uncontrollably? On the Democratic side, Patriot Majority spends $111,000.
• AR-Sen: Republican Tom Cotton features an elderly couple blaming Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor for cutting their Medicare.
• CO-Sen: Crossroads GPS spends a hefty $3,036,000. On the Democratic side NextGen Climate continues to tie Republican Cory Gardner to the Kochs, while Democratic Sen. Mark Udall offers some pretty vague platitudes while he drives (seriously, how is filming an ad while driving at all safe?). Fair Share Action also spends $164,000 while the SEIU spends $323,000.
• IA-Sen: Democrat Bruce Braley continues to make his care straight to the camera, arguing that he'll stand up to outsourcers while Republican Joni Ersnt won't.
Ernst herself has a new spot, where she tries to recapture some of the magic of her legendary "Squeal" ad from the primary. Ernst stands in a pig lot and describes a dirty stinking mess- though she's talking about Congress, not the pigs. Also for Team Red, the NRA spends $103,000 while the U.S. Chamber of Commerce spends $271,000.
• KS-Sen: Republican Sen. Pat Roberts goes after independent Greg Orman's business record, accusing him of being involved in sleazy dealings.
• KY-Sen: Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell has two spots (here and here). The first features several Democrats saying they're voting for him. The second features several young women accusing Democrat Alison Grimes of not believing that they can succeed without the government. Also on the GOP's side, the Kentucky Opportunity Coalition spends $110,000 while Crossroads GPS hauls out $173,000. On the other side of the aisle, Grimes goes after McConnell on problems at the Brent Spence Bridge.
• LA-Sen: Republican Bill Cassidy continues to tie Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu to Obama, while Americans for Responsible Solutions spends $478,000 for the Democrats.
• MI-Sen: NextGen Climate spends $114,000 for Team Blue.
• MN-Sen: The Alliance for a Better Minnesota spends $485,000 for the Democrats.
• NC-Sen: EMILY's List continues to argue that Republican Thom Tillis wants to make women's healthcare decisions for them. Also for Team Blue, the League of Conservation Voters has announced it will spend $4.2 million on ads, mail, and get-out-the-vote efforts. They have two new spots (here and here) accusing Tillis of being in the pocket of polluters and oil companies. Also on the Democratic side, Americans for Responsible Solutions spends $330,000.
• NH-Sen: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce spends another $541,000 for Team Red.
• OR-Sen: Democratic Sen. Jeff Merkley and Republican Monica Wehby.
• SD-Sen: Mayday PAC hits Republican Mike Rounds on the EB-5 scandal, arguing that he's lying about his involvement. Rounds himself portrays Democrat Rick Weiland as an Obama-loving liberal.
• WV-Sen: Democrat Natalie Tennant continues to link Republican Shelley Moore Capito to Wall Street, claiming that Capito's helping her banker husband get rich. Last time Tennant tried this line of attack Capito forcefully pushed back and argues Tennant was attacking her family.
• DSCC: Democratic expenditures.
• Freedom Partners: Do you enjoy watching Republican ads tying Democratic candidates to Obama? If you do, then Freedom Partners has a treat for you. They're spending a total of $6.5 million on spots for the Senate in Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, and North Carolina.
• AK-Gov: Republican Gov. Sean Parnell features his wife Sandy praising the governor, while saying he'll tackle the unfolding state National Guard scandal head on. It's unlikely many voters will actually see this spot though. As we recently noted the Alaska airwaves are crammed with ads for the U.S. Senate race, and there isn't much room left for Parnell's commercials.
• AR-Gov: Republican Asa Hutchinson highlights his career as a prosecutor.
• AZ-Gov: Democrat Fred DuVal continues to go after Republican Doug Ducey on education cuts.
• CT-Gov: The DGA-backed Connecticut Forward continues to portray Republican Tom Foley as a vulture capitalist. Democratic Gov. Dan Malloy deploys a similar line of attack.
• FL-Gov: The Florida GOP paints Democrat Charlie Crist as someone with no core values.
• GA-Gov: The Coalition for Georgia's Future praises Republican Gov. Nathan Deal on education.
• IL-Gov: Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn accuses Republican Bruce Rauner for not employing a single African American as a financial professional.
• KS-Gov: We've officially hit the point in the cycle where campaigns start to get desperate. Republican Gov. Sam Brownback is locked in a close race with Democrat Paul Davis and his campaign is airing a risky new ad aiming to caricature Davis as weak on crime.
The narrator describes how the Carr brothers were caught and prosecuted for multiple murders, and sent to death row. However "liberal judges in Topeka" overturned their death sentences. The spot links the judges to Davis, with the narrator accusing one of them of holding a fundraiser for the Democrat. The spot ends by contrasting the two candidates, arguing that Davis will appoint weak liberal justices, while Brownback will appoint tough judges.
Unsurprisingly, the ad is getting plenty of attention in Kansas. Kansans for Justice, an organization formed by the families of the Carr brothers' victims, put out a statement expressing its displeasure that the case is being politicized, though the group is also very unhappy that the Carrs' sentences were commuted to life in prison.
Ads like this are always unpredictable. If Brownback can make the argument that Davis is weak on crime, it could very well give him a boost. However, if it looks like he's exploiting a terrible tragedy for his own political benefit, it can easily backfire. Indeed, Alaska Democratic Sen. Mark Begich found this out the hard way a few months ago when he ran an ad centered on a murderer, but had to pull it after the victims' family complained. Another endangered Midwestern Republican, Rep. Lee Terry, is also running hard-hitting ads trying to portray his opponent as weak, and it's not yet clear if they're working or not. We'll need to wait and see how voters respond to this very provocative commercial.
• MA-Gov: Republican Charlie Baker argues that Democrat Martha Coakley has no plans for jobs or welfare reform, but he does. The RGA-backed Commonwealth Future Fund also goes after Coakley, portraying her as corrupt. The RGA apparently likes what they're seeing from the group, since they just gave them another $2,250,000.
• MD-Gov: Republican Larry Hogan has two spots (here and here). Both feature women saying they'll back Hogan, while hitting Democrat Anthony Brown for continuing an unacceptable status quo.
• ME-Gov: The League of Conservation Voters goes after Republican Gov. Paul LePage on brutal budget cuts.
• MI-Gov: Democrat Mark Schauer continues to hit Republican Gov. Rick Snyder's policies that only help the wealthy.
• NE-Gov: Two spots from Democrat Chuck Hassebrook (here and here). The first emphasizes his humble origins, but the second is much more notable.
The narrator describes how violent criminals are getting out of jail due to the Good Time Law. The ad then accuses Republican Pete Ricketts of refusing to do anything to stop it. Hassebrook appears and promises to stop these releases as governor.
In Omaha's 2nd District Republican Lee Terry and the NRCC have been hitting Democrat Brad Ashford over the Good Time Law, and it's notable that Team Blue is trying a similar line of attack. Hassebrook's ad is less inflammatory than the GOP's: He doesn't bring up any specific cases, and the whole spot feels far less personal and hard hitting. Still, it is interesting that Democrats are now the ones trying to use the Good Time Law to their advantage.
• NH-Gov: The RGA portrays Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan as a crazed spender and taxer.
• WI-Gov: Democrat Mary Burke continues to go after Republican Gov. Scott Walker's education cuts, while Wisconsin Conservation argues Walker put the state's drinking water as risk. Walker has two ads (here and here). Both feature Walker praising his jobs record.
• AZ-01: The American Action Network argues that Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick "threw a tantrum" during the government shutdown and voted against border security, keeping the Grand Canyon open, and even veterans services.
Of course what goes unmentioned in this spot is that none of those bills had any chance of passing. The GOP's hope was that they could pressure Democrats into voting to open a few sections of government, so they could keep the rest of it closed with less public backlash. It didn't work last year, but Team Red is hoping this vote will come back to haunt Kirkpatrick now.
• AZ-02: Republican Martha McSally has an over-dramatic narrator reading out attacks against her, with McSally declaring that this is why people dislike politics.
• CA-21: Republican Rep. David Valadeo in English and Spanish.
• CO-06: American Unity PAC spends $218,000 for the GOP.
• CT-Gov: Democratic Rep. Elizabeth Esty.
• FL-02: For the GOP, the NRA modifies one of its standard ads slightly. On the Democratic side, the NEA spends $126,000.
• FL-18: Center Forward spends $150,000.
• GA-12: Two spots from Democratic Rep. John Barrow (here and here). The first spot has Barrow featuring a gun an ancestor used to stop a lynching, with Barrow contrasting his stance on firearms with national Democrats. The ad is very similar to a memorable 2012 spot he ran during the 2012 campaign. The second ad defends Barrow on immigration, while arguing Republican Rick Allen is weak on enforcement.
Allen's spot features snippets of an Augusta Chronicle editorial praising him as someone who can change Washington.
• IA-03: Democrat Staci Appel continues to hit Republican David Young as a Washington insider.
• IL-10: The DCCC continues to tie Republican Bob Dold(!) to the Tea Party.
• MI-11: Democrat Bobby McKenzie has an uphill climb against wealthy foreclosure lawyer Dave Trott in this Romney 52-47 seat. McKenzie is hoping that Trott's past can be an anvil for the GOP here. His spot dramatizes Trott's company foreclosing an elderly wheelchair bound woman, with men coming to her door in the middle of the night, and dragging her out of her house. The narrator describes how Trott's company evicted on a 101-year old woman, a very ugly and very true story.
• MN-08: The American Action Network portrays Democratic Rep. Rick Nolan as someone who took advantage of Congress' perks, but didn't do anything to help veterans.
• NE-02: Democrat Brad Ashford features an editorial from the Omaha World Herald panning Republican Rep. Lee Terry's ads against him. House Majority PAC also accuses Terry of being desperate: The size of the buy is $106,000.
• NV-04: Crossroads GPS recently announced that they were spending $1 million in what had been a virtually ignored race, and now their first ad is out. It's pretty standard stuff: They accuse Democratic Rep. Steven Horsford of being an Obama drone.
It's not the kind of ad you'd necessarily expect to see in a district that went for Obama 55-44. However, early voting so far has been downright awful for Democrats, and the 4th District isn't looking any better. Unless Team Blue can pick up the pace, we'll likely see a much more conservative electorate out of this suburban Las Vegas district than we saw in 2012, and one that's more open to Crossroads' arguments.
• NY-19: Democrat Sean Eldridge.
• NY-23: Republican Rep. Tom Reed.
• PA-06: Democrat Manan Trivedi.
• PA-08: Independence USA, the super PAC run by former New York City Mayor and current NRA punching bag Michael Bloomberg, spends $174,000 for the GOP.
• TX-23: Democratic Rep. Pete Gallego talks bipartisanship, while portraying Republican Will Hurd as an extremist. Latino Victory Project also spends $180,000 for Team Blue.
• VA-02: Democrat Suzanne Patrick.
• WV-02: Republican Alex Mooney has an Obama impersonator leaving a message on Democrat Nick Casey's answering machine.
• WV-03: Democratic Rep. Nick Rahall goes after Republican Evan Jenkins on the minimum age, mining safety, and Medicare.
• NRCC: New GOP spots in AZ-01; CA-07; CA-52; FL-02; FL-26; GA-12; IA-03; IL-12; MN-07; NY-01; NY-19; and WV-03. Of these 12 seats, 10 are Democratic held. We also have expenditures.
The only real surprise on this list in NY-19. Democrat Sean Eldridge is very wealthy but what few polls we've seen have shown him badly trailing Republican Rep. Chris Gibson. Maybe the NRCC just doesn't want to take the chance that Eldridge will flood the zone with ads in the closing weeks of this contest, or maybe Gibson is more vulnerable than he looks.
11:50 AM PT: Polling:
• CO-Sen: Suffolk Univ.: Cory Gardner (R): 46, Mark Udall (D-inc): 39 (Sept.: 43-42 Gardner)
• GA-Sen: SurveyUSA: Michelle Nunn (D): 46, David Perdue (R): 44, Amanda Swafford (Lib): 4 (Oct. 14: 48-45-3 Nunn)
• IA-Sen: Monmouth: Joni Ernst (R): 47, Bruce Braley (D): 46
• OR-Sen: SurveyUSA: Jeff Merkley (D-inc): 53, Monica Wehby (R): 32 (Sept.: 52-32 Merkley)
Not much to say about those Colorado numbers except boy do they suck for Udall. Still, is he really down 7 points? Maybe not, but he's almost certainly down. This month, he's
only been ahead in a pair of Democratic internals and a YouGov poll with a long field period that started on Sept. 20. Well, at least Nunn is keeping her head above water.
12:39 PM PT: Polling:
• CA-31: American Viewpoint (R): Pete Aguilar (D): 42, Paul Chabot (R): 38 (conducted for American Future Fund)
• CA-52: SurveyUSA: Carl DeMaio (R): 46, Scott Peters (D-inc): 45 (Oct. 7: 48-45 DeMaio)
• IL-10: We Ask America: Bob Dold! (R): 47, Brad Schneider (D-inc): 45 (Sept.: 46-44 Schneider)
• IL-11: We Ask America: Bill Foster (D-inc): 52, Darlene Senger (R): 40 (Sept.: 47-44 Foster)
• IL-12: We Ask America: Mike Bost (R): 44, Bill Enyart (D-inc): 42, Paula Bradshaw (G): 6 (Oct. 1: 45-40-6 Bost)
• IL-13: We Ask America: Rodney Davis (R-inc): 53, Ann Callis (D): 36 (Oct. 1: 51-38 Davis)
• IL-17: We Ask America: Cheri Bustos (D-inc): 55, Bobby Schilling (R): 39 (Sept.: 50-41 Bustos)
• KS-02: Tarrance Group (R): Lynn Jenkins (R-inc): 49, Margie Wakefield (D): 37 (conducted for Jenkins)
• ME-02: Normington Petts (D): Emily Cain (D): 42, Bruce Poliquin (R): 34 (conducted for Cain)
• NH-01: New England College: Frank Guinta (R): 47, Carol Shea-Porter (D-inc): 46
• NJ-05: Garin-Hart-Yang (D): Scott Garrett (R-inc): 47, Roy Cho (D): 40 (conducted for Cho)
Thoughts:
• That CA-31 poll was likely just shoveled out there by the conservative AFF to drum up interest in the race. Democrats have spent money to ensure Aguilar wins, but no outside GOP groups have played here.
• Evidently that whole sexual harassment scandal hasn't taken much of a toll on DeMaio in CA-52—at least, not yet.
• You already know what we think about We Ask America.
• It sure took Jenkins a long time to respond to Wakefield's last poll a couple of weeks ago, which had the incumbent on top just 48-43.
• Cain at just 42 in her own internal doesn't seem awesome, but the NRCC recently announced it was cancelling its remaining ad reservations here (some $600,000 worth), so she must be feeling decently comfortable nevertheless.
• NJ-05 is sort of the inverse of CA-31, though Republicans haven't spent a penny on Garrett. It's a little odd that Cho would release an internal that showed a wider margin than a recent Monmouth survey that put Garrett up just 48-43, but he's probably trying to argue that "multiple polls" are showing the incumbent below 50.
1:03 PM PT: • NH-Sen: PPP (D): Jeanne Shaheen (D-inc): 49, Scott Brown (R): 45 (Sept.: 50-44 Shaheen) (conducted for LCV)
It's getting a bit tight in New Hampshire, but Shaheen's led in seven of eight polls conducted in October. And the difficulty for Brown is that he has an underwater 44-48 favorability rating while Shaheen's at 49-44, making it hard for him to close that gap.
1:26 PM PT: KY-Sen: The Senate Majority PAC is also reportedly going back into the Bluegrass State with a "high six-figures TV buy."
2:06 PM PT: KY-Sen: In an attempt to tamp down any buzz over the cavalry reappearing for Grimes, Mitch McConnell released an internal poll from Voter/Consumer Research showing him with a 49-41 lead on Grimes. The last (and only) time we saw a V/CR poll from McConnell was back in June, when he sported a similar 49-42 advantage.
However, V/CR has a truly abysmal track record, and they had no problem allowing McConnell to use them back in 2010 to claim that Trey Grayson (the establishment favorite) was tied with Rand Paul in the GOP Senate primary that year. Two weeks later, Paul crushed Grayson by 23 points. We're not saying anything like that will happen here, but there's no good reason to trust this pollster.
2:20 PM PT (Jeff Singer): Polling:
• AR-Gov: Hendrix College: Asa Hutchinson (R) 49, Mike Ross (D) 41 (July: 46-41 Hutchinson)
• CO-Gov: Suffolk Univ.: Bob Beauprez (R) 45, John Hickenlooper (D-inc) 43 (Sept.: 43-41 Hickenlooper)
• CT-Gov: Quinnipiac: Dan Malloy (D-inc) 43, Tom Foley (R) 42 (Oct. 8: 43-43 tie)
• GA-Gov: SurveyUSA: Nathan Deal (R-inc) 45, Jason Carter (D) 43 (Oct. 15: 46-46 tie)
• FL-Gov: Quinnipiac: Charlie Crist (D) 42, Rick Scott (R-inc) 42, Adrian Wyllie (L) 7 (Sept.: 44-42 Scott)
• FL-Gov: St. Leo Univ.: Crist (D) 43, Scott (R-inc) 40, Wyllie (L) 8 (June: 43-41 Scott)
• MA-Gov: MassINC: Charlie Baker (R) 43, Martha Coakley (D) 42 (Oct. 15: 42-39 Coakley)
• MI-Gov: EPIC-MRA: Rick Snyder (R-inc) 47, Mark Schauer (D) 39 (Oct. 1: 45-39 Snyder)
• NH-Gov: PPP (D): (conducted for LCV) Maggie Hassan (D-inc) 53, Walt Havenstein (R) 43 (Sept.: 52-43 Hassan)
• OR-Sen: SurveyUSA: John Kitzhaber (D-inc) 51, Dennis Richardson (R) 38 (Sept.: 50-38 Kitzhaber)
• WI-Gov: Rasmussen: Mary Burke (D) 49, Scott Walker (R-inc) 48 (Sept: 48-46 Walker)
Since
Fangate blew up last Wednesday, five different pollsters have surveyed Florida. Each of them has found a close race, showing anywhere from a 1-point lead for Scott to a 3-point Crist lead. Despite some Democratic hopes (and Republican fears), Scott's strange behavior last week doesn't appear to have done much to move the needle to the left. This was a tight race before and it's a tight race now.
Scott is prepared to pull out all the stops to win here. The governor initially didn't plan to spend any of his own money, but on Wednesday he announced that he had changed his mind and will indeed self fund. Scott hasn't said how much he'll spend but in 2010 he ended up investing $75.1 million into the entire race. This is already the most expensive contest in the nation and throwing even more money in may give Scott some very diminished returns. Still, if this election is as tight as it looks, every bit could make a difference.
2:26 PM PT (Jeff Singer):
• WI-Gov: St. Norbert College: Walker (R-inc) 47, Burke (D) 46 (April: 55-40 Walker)