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11:40 AM PT: NV-Sen: Open seat fans will be bummed, but Harry Reid's gonna be happy: GOP Rep. Joe Heck, who just won a resounding 61-36 victory Tuesday night despite holding down a 50-49 Obama district, says he won't run for Senate in 2016. (One reason he cited is quite interesting: He was recently promoted to the rank of brigadier general in the U.S. Army Reserve!) However, Republicans are still working on several other possibilities, including Gov. Brian Sandoval, incoming Lt. Gov. Mark Hutchinson, former Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki, and Rep. Mark Amodei.
1:23 PM PT: MO-Gov: Despite Democrats losing control of the Senate, no one challenged Harry Reid for the position of minority leader, though at least half a dozen mostly red-state senators voted against Reid in Thursday's secret-ballot election. That kind of thing is mostly stunty, and community member Taget explains why it's unlikely to even help any of the dissenters. (Bottom line: You're already on record as previously supporting Reid for majority leader.)
But perhaps the one interesting "nay" came from Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill, who simultaneously refused to rule out a bid for governor. It's not entirely a surprise: Over the summer, a local columnist floated her name (perhaps at the suggestion of McCaskill loyalists). Now, though, that she's publicly set herself on the outs with Reid and Senate leadership, a run for governor might seem more appealing, especially since it seems like that's the job she always wanted in the first place.
Among other things, McCaskill would have the benefit of presidential-year turnout, as Missouri is one of just a dozen states to hold gubernatorial elections in years divisible by four. The seat will also be open, as Democratic Gov. Jay Nixon faces term limits. And if she's successful, she'd avoid what would be an exceptionally difficult Senate re-election bid in 2018.
However, there's one big obstacle: Attorney General Chris Koster. Koster's long had his eye on the top job (as the old joke goes, "AG" stands for "aspiring governor"), and right now, he looks like the consensus Democratic candidate. While the Republican field is likely to turn into a toxic shitshow and yield a damaged nominee, a Koster-McCaskill primary would be incredibly expensive and could undo the advantages that a clear path to the nomination might otherwise yield for Team Blue.
But there's a deal to be had here, and Koster has reasons for wanting to make it. If he defers to McCaskill and McCaskill wins, then she (or Nixon, depending on the exact timing) can appoint Koster to fill out the last two years of McCaskill's Senate term. Koster wouldn't have an easy time of winning a full six-year term in 2018 either, but with a law-and-order profile and without the taint of DC on him, he'd have a better shot than the current incumbent.
What's more, Koster, who got his start as a Republican in the Missouri state Senate, is a wheeler-dealer who would be well-suited to the U.S. Senate. (Koster switched to the Democrats before running for attorney general.) McCaskill, meanwhile, is more a creature of state politics: She initially served as state auditor, then unsuccessfully ran for governor in 2004. Chuck Schumer courted her assiduously to run for Senate in 2006, and she won in a nail-biter, but the governorship is probably still her first choice—and someone with her heart set on another four years in the Senate wouldn't have just flipped the bird to Reid.
There's something else at play, too. Koster is currently the subject of a troubling New York Times investigation into the questionable influence that lobbying firms have been exerting on state attorneys general, and things are going to get worse before they get better. If he can put off his next appearance before voters for four years rather than two, however, that'll give him more distance from this ugliness. Studies show that the impact of scandals fade with time, and Koster would be wise to take advantage of this.
One downside is that right now, as someone seeking state office, Koster can raise virtually limitless sums of money with ease. If he instead runs for Senate, he'd be limited to begging for $2,600 checks, undoubtedly an unappealing prospect. However, Koster would almost certainly be able to count on super PACs rallying to his side in a big way, so the switch from state to federal financing wouldn't be as painful as he might imagine.
Just a few weeks ago, Koster looked like the strongest Democrat to hold the governor's mansion in 2016. But you should never underestimate the power of the Times to undermine a legitimate contender—just consider how badly Shelley Berkley got hurt in the 2012 Nevada Senate race thanks to some fairly bogus accusations that she helped saved a transplant clinic in order to benefit her husband. If Koster wants to hedge his bets, he should seriously consider holding off and locking in a switcheroo.
1:55 PM PT: IL-Sen: If any senator was high on the potential retirement list, it was Illinois Republican Mark Kirk, who is not only, well, a Republican in Illinois, but who also suffered a debilitating stroke in 2012. However, Kirk is not going anywhere: On Thursday, he declared, "No frickin' way am I retiring." Credit to the guy for being absolutely clear about his intentions!
But that doesn't mean Kirk won't face a competitive race. Even though he's done a decent job presenting himself as a moderate (despite some extremely conservative votes), Kirk will be a top Democratic target in 2016, and one possible recruit is Rep. Tammy Duckworth. "But wait a minute, DavidNYC," you might say. "Didn't you just write in the previous Digest that Duckworth wasn't interested?"
Well, we did, but we jumped the gun—and it's a good lesson in why you should always wait to hear actual quotes from actual candidates before drawing conclusions about their intentions. (It's a rule we've always tried to follow, but I guess we got too excited to usher in the start of the new campaign season!)
Anyhow, we still don't have direct word from Duckworth, but a "member of her team" claims that Duckworth is "interested, open and curious" about a possible bid, though apparently she wants to wait until after the birth if her daughter (expected soon) before deciding. That's at least a little closer to the horse's mouth than columnist Lynn Sweet's completely unsourced claim that Rep. Bill Foster is "very, very interested," but who knows? We won't for sure until the candidates themselves speak.
2:03 PM PT: OH-Sen: Democrats would love to make a play for Ohio's Senate Class 3 Senate seat in 2016, but they've got two problems: a very weak bench and a very strong GOP incumbent in Rob Portman. However, Portman sounds like he's seriously considering a presidential bid, and if that takes off, then his Senate seat could become open. (Of course, if Portman is actually at the top of the ticket, winning Ohio in general would become harder for Team Blue, but we're getting ahead of ourselves.)
But even with an open seat, finding a viable Democratic candidate won't be easy. Perhaps the best bet would be former state Attorney General Richard Cordray, who is now head of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the agency first proposed by Elizabeth Warren. Cordray's term as bureau chief runs through 2018, so Democrats would risk leaving the agency—which Republican loathe—leaderless if he had to step down early. But given how few options there are, it'd be a risk worth considering, especially since Cordray could articulate a strong populist message that would connect with the economic concerns of ordinary Americans.
2:59 PM PT: House: The immediate aftermath of any election is always an opportunity for folks who fell short to start talking up rematches. We discussed a few names previously, and already, we have a few more, as well as some brand new options:
•
CA-31: Republican Paul Chabot narrowly lost to Democrat Pete Aguilar 51-49, so on one level, you can understand why he's already saying
he'll run again. However, this is a blue district (
57-41 Obama), 2016 will bring greater turnout, and Aguilar will have the advantage of incumbency—while Chabot
won't have the advantage of a GOP wave. Unless Aguilar seriously stumbles, this won't be an especially compelling contest.
• NH-01: Rep. Carol Shea-Porter also lost a close race, 52-48, but in a swing district, and John DiStaso suggests she could make a third comeback attempt against Republican Frank Guinta in two years' time. If not Shea-Porter, DiStaso goes hard on the Great Mentioner front, suggesting State House Speaker Terie Norelli, Manchester Alderman Garth Corriveau, former New Hampshire Medical Society President Travis Harker, former Portsmouth Mayor Tom Ferrini, Executive Councilor Chris Pappas, state Sen. Donna Soucy, businessman Shawn O'Connor, and Portsmouth City Councilor Stefany Shaheen (daughter of Jeanne).
• NH-02: Rep. Annie Kuster, fresh off winning a second term by a healthy 10-point spread, were to run for Senate instead next cycle, a whole host of other potential Democrats awaits to take her place: Executive Councilor Colin Van Ostern, state Sen. Feltes, House Majority Leader Steve Shurtleff, state Senate Democratic Leader-elect Jeff Woodburn, Concord Mayor Jim Bouley, activist Jason Lyon, and political operative Mike Vlacich, who is Jeanne Shaheen's campaign manager.
• NY-11: Democratic ex-Rep. Mike McMahon has played an annoying game of footsie ever since he was turfed out after a single term on Staten Island in 2010. He seems to enjoy having his name in the papers but never really articulates his intentions, and in both of the intervening cycles, Democrats have been left with weaker alternatives. Now he's back to his old shtick, talking at length about the recent election but insisting "no comment, no comment" when asked if he wants to run again. At this point, though, he's been out in the cold for a while and it's not really clear that he'd actually be a stronger alternative—if he's not just playing games anyhow.
3:10 PM PT: NH-Sen: In addition to talking extensively about potential Democratic House hopefuls in New Hampshire (see our item below), columnist John DiStaso offers a huge array of possible candidates who could take on freshman Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte. Newly re-elected Gov. Maggie Hassan is at the top of the list, and Rep. Annie Kuster could be an attractive candidate, too. But if they're not keen, the list of alternatives is very long:
Former state securities bureau chief Mark Connolly; Executive Councilors Colin Van Ostern and Chris Pappas; state Sens. Donna Soucy and Dan Feltes; former state Sen. Jackie Cilley (who unsuccessfully sought the Democratic nomination for governor in 2012); Portsmouth City Councilor Stefany Shaheen (daughter of Sen. Jeanne Shaheen); and Jeanne Shaheen’s campaign manager, Mike Vlacich.
One more dark horse would be ex-Gov. John Lynch, who preceded Hassan and served a record four two-year terms, but he's never seemed interested in federal office.
3:17 PM PT (Taniel): AK-Sen, AK-Gov: Alaska is back to counting ballots today. It posted its first update around noon, increasing the total count by about 9600 ballots. Senator Mark Begich and Bill Walker, the independent gubernatorial candidate, both did very well in this batch. The former netted 1260 votes, the latter netted 773 votes. So right now Walker leads Governor Sean Parnell by 4,777 votes (1.9 percent) and Dan Sullivan leads Begich by 6651 votes (2.7 percent). The Alaska Dispatch News says that about 30,000 ballots are left to be counted.
3:37 PM PT (Taniel): CA-16: About 2300 ballots were just added in Fresno County, the Democratic part of this district, and Democratic Rep. Jim Costa got 72 percent of them. (That is far more than he was projected to win, since his county total is "just" 64 percent.) This allows Costa to grow his lead from 75 votes to 700 votes.
All that is left are about 2,200 provisional ballots from the district's two Republican counties: about 1,500 from Merced County, which Costa's Republican challenger Johnny Tacherra won by 11 percent, and about 700 from Madera County, which he won by about 32 percent. Tacherra will have to do much better among the still-uncounted ballots than he has so far to close the gap.
3:52 PM PT (David Jarman): Philly mayor: The open race to replace Michael Nutter as the mayor of the City of Brotherly Getdafuckoutofmyway just got a high-profile, if somewhat surprising, entrant. Lynne Abraham, who was a constant presence in Philly politics as the city's elected District Attorney for nearly two decades (from 1991 to 2010), has apparently decided that retirement doesn't agree with her, and at age 73, is seeking a promotion.
Abraham, who earned the sobriquet "Queen of Death" for her aggressive seeking of the death penalty, will occupy the law-and-order corner of the field, likely to nail down the support of any surviving Frank Rizzo voters — Philadelphia's definitely less of a working-class white-ethnic city than it used to be 20 years ago, though. She joins Nutter aide Terry Gillen and former city solicitor Ken Trujillo in the race.
3:58 PM PT (Taniel): CA-16: I messed up the math in the update above. Only 1415 ballots were added in Fresno County today, and about 2,000 ballots remain to be counted in the part of the county that falls in this district. I wrote above that the math looked good for Costa even if all of Fresno's ballots had been counted; needless to say, Costa looks even better now.
4:09 PM PT (David Jarman): Votes: We haven't had an interesting vote that exposes fissures in one of the caucuses in a while, but we got one on Friday with the rushed vote to approve construction of the Keystone XL pipeline. There was no drama on the Republican side, where there were 221 aye votes and 1 'present' from the often inscrutable Justin Amash.
On the Dem side, there were 161 no votes and 31 ayes, though some of the ayes will surprise you. The core Blue Dogs from rural areas voted aye, but some of the more conservative members from suburban areas (like Brad Schneider and Kurt Schrader) didn't. Instead, the ayes were rounded out by a fair number of Congressional Black Caucus members (though, again, the more rural or suburban ones, like Bennie Thompson, Terri Sewell, Sanford Bishop, and David Scott), and some fairly progressive members with old-school labor constituencies (like Mike Doyle, the recently-reelected Rick Nolan, and the newly-seated Donald Norcross).