Michael Grimm
Last week, Republican Rep. Michael Grimm plead guilty to tax fraud, but refused to resign from his Staten Island seat. The House Republican leadership wasn't putting much public pressure on the congressman to depart, and it looked like he would be able to stay put. However, that seems to have changed. On Monday night, both
The New York Daily News and
Politico reported that Grimm will resign either Tuesday or Wednesday. House Speaker John Boehner's camp is not denying the story, which they almost certainly would do if it weren't true.
Grimm's departure will set off a special election. Obama won this seat 52-47, and both parties are expected to compete for it. However, local events could give the GOP an edge here. Democratic Mayor Bill de Blasio was never popular in Staten Island, losing the borough 53-44 even as he was winning 73-24 citywide in 2013. The recent unrest following the death of Eric Garner and the murder of two NYPD officers is unlikely to improve his status here. The special will not be held for several months and things can change, but Team Red will probably start out with an advantage.
Under New York special election law, the county parties will select their nominees. In recent days, attention has turned to a trio of Republicans: Richmond County District Attorney Dan Donovan, state Sen. Andrew Lanza, and state Assemblywoman Nicole Malliotakis. Donovan and Malliotakis especially are considered rising stars, but Malliotakis reportedly has a poor relationship with the local party. Former Rep. Vito Fossella's name has also been touted, though it's unclear how interested he actually is. Fossella retired from the House in 2008 after voters learned about his secret family, and he still has a tense relationship with plenty in the party.
On the Democratic side, both former Rep. Michael McMahon and Assemblyman Michael Cusick have expressed interest in jumping in. McMahon held this seat for one term, but narrowly lost to Grimm in the 2010 red wave. Cusick himself deferred to McMahon back in 2008 and it's unclear if he'll be willing to do it again if the former congressman runs.
Events are moving quickly here and it's going to be a while before everything settles, but we'll be watching this special election very closely as things develop.
8:13 PM PT: Donovan has good ties to Staten Island's Republican establishment, and The Observer's Ross Barkan reports that he's quickly emerged as the frontrunner for the nomination.
9:18 PM PT: Grimm has confirmed that he's resigning Jan. 5.