Pat Roberts (on right)
:
• KS-Sen: PPP's new poll of the Sunflower State, their first since Democrat Chad Taylor announced he was dropping his bid for Senate, confirms that Kansas—Kansas!—has cemented its position as the most exciting state of the 2014 election cycle. Taylor's status remains uncertain, though: The state Supreme Court heard arguments on Tuesday morning as to whether Republican Secretary of State Kris Kobach should remove his name from the ballot (Kobach's refused to), and election law expert Rick Hasen thinks that Taylor's likely to prevail.
Fortunately, while we wait for the court to rule, PPP checked in on both possible scenarios—i.e., with Taylor on the ballot and with Taylor off—but in both cases, the news is equally dire for Republican Sen. Pat Roberts. In a three-way race, which is what we still have for the moment, independent businessman Greg Orman holds a 7-point lead:
Greg Orman (I): 41
Pat Roberts (R): 34
Chad Taylor (D): 6
Randall Batson (Lib): 4
Undecided: 15
Unlike SurveyUSA, which recently found Taylor
at 10 percent despite informing respondents that he'd quit, PPP didn't prime the folks they interviewed. Instead, they asked Taylor supporters
after the horserace question above whether they knew he'd dropped out, and 36 percent said they were, in fact, not aware.
That's good news for Orman, because this group of inattentive voters is heavily Democratic (42 percent, versus just 12 percent Republican). That means they're more likely to come over to his side once they learn Taylor's not running, even if his name does formally remain on the ballot. (Of course, it'll be a struggle to get folks who haven't paid attention to the single biggest political story in Kansas in the past month out to the polls, but that's a separate problem.)
And in the event that the Supreme Court does side with Taylor, PPP's numbers show that such a development would indeed redound to Orman's advantage. In a direct head-to-head matchup without Taylor or Batson, the Libertarian, Orman holds a huge 46-36 lead on Roberts, whose job approval rating remains mired at a miserable 29-46, unchanged from his 27-44 score in August. Orman, meanwhile, has seen his standing surge with voters, despite Republican attacks that he's a stealth Democrat who's Harry Reid's willing puppet: His favorability rating has jumped to 39-19, up from 24-12 a month ago.
That won't last, because the GOP has yet to train its biggest guns on Orman, and they most certainly will. But Roberts, despite a peppy debate performance 10 days ago, still hasn't managed to stanch the bleeding. It's hard to get over what's happening in Kansas, which last sent a Democrat to the Senate in 1932, but yeah, it's happening.
Senate:
• NC-Sen: PPP's newest North Carolina poll finds Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan leading Republican Thom Tillis by the same 4-point margin she did last month. Hagan holds a 44-40 advantage, with Libertarian Sean Haugh dropping to 5 percent. Last month, Hagan was up 42-38 with Haugh at 8; what's interesting is that Haugh's predictable fade-out hasn't helped Tillis, even though putative Libertarian voters tend to lean Republican. Indeed, even if the rest of Haugh's support were to vanish altogether, that would have no impact on the race, as Hagan leads 46-42 in a two-person race.
It's also worth noting that of the 21 public polls, including this one, released since the May 6 primary, Hagan has been ahead in 15 and Tillis ahead in just five (one was tied). And of those showing Tillis out front, two were from Rasmussen, two were from YouGov, and one was from Republican pollster National Research. Even though it's a very close race, when you're leading almost three quarters of the time, odds are, you're actually leading.
And indeed, the Daily Kos Elections Poll Explorer gives Hagan an 82 percent chance at victory, even before this latest poll. If Democrats can take this seat off the table for Republicans, that would really narrow this year's landscape.
• NH-Sen: Big Dog Alert! Bill Clinton will reportedly attend the New Hampshire Democratic Party's Jefferson-Jackson Dinner next month, an event that will presumably help raise funds for Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, as well as Gov. Maggie Hassan and Reps. Annie Kuster and Carol Shea-Porter.
American Research Group also checks in: Jeanne Shaheen (D-inc): 50, Scott Brown (R): 45 (June: 50-38 Shaheen).
Gubernatorial:
• FL-Gov: SurveyUSA's ever-bouncy Florida poll finds a bump for GOP Gov. Rick Scott this week, who, for the moment, leads Democrat Charlie Crist 44-39, with Libertarian Adrian Wyllie taking 7. A week ago, Scott was up 45-44 and the week before that, Crist led 45-43. The big difference this time is that Wyllie's earning a much higher share of the vote than he ever has before. In the past, SUSA's had him at just 3-4 percent.
The DGA is undeterred, though: They just sent another $1.5 million to help Crist's campaign. That brings their total investment to $5.6 million, which, as Marc Caputo notes, is ahead of the their 2010 pace. However, the RGA has already pumped in $11.2 million, though they always raise and spend more money than their Democratic counterparts.
• KS-Gov: PPP also finds positive news for Democrat Paul Davis, who leads GOP Gov. Sam Brownback 42-38, with Libertarian Keen Umbehr at 7. Davis had a 39-37 edge last month, so it seems that as Umbehr wilts, he's picking up that support—which makes sense, since in a two-way race, Davis holds a slightly wider 45-39 advantage. Davis has maintained a steady edge for a couple of months now (not counting YouGov's weird polls), despite a multi-million dollar GOP barrage.
Also, in the secretary of state's race, Republican incumbent Kris Kobach now has just a 43-42 edge on Democrat Jean Schodorf, compared to his 43-38 advantage in August. SurveyUSA has showed similar numbers, with Schodorf up 3 this month.
• NH-Gov: Two new polls:
• American Research Group: Maggie Hassan (D-inc): 51, Walt Havenstein (R): 39 (June: 45-32 Hassan).
• Rasmussen: Hassan 51, Havenstein: 40.
• NM-Gov: Republican Gov. Susana Martinez knocked Gary King into the sand right from the start and has kept her boot on his neck ever since. And that barrage of negative attacks seems to have paid off, as King utterly failed to turn around his miserable fundraising and has now
lost his campaign manager and field director. Even worse, it sounds like King may not even replace his departed CM, probably because it's not like there are many skilled operatives who are both unemployed right now and interested in joining a failing campaign.
House:
• MA-06: Two new Democratic polls show Iraq vet Seth Moulton, who defeated Rep. John Tierney in last week's primary, beating Republican Richard Tisei in the fight for Massachusetts' 6th Congressional District. Ton is an in-house robopoll from the DCCC placing Moulton on top 49-41, even though Moulton is only known to 60 percent of voters. (Tisei's name ID wasn't provided.)
The other is also an IVR survey from Municipoll, conducted on behalf of a group called 314 PAC, which promotes candidates who have science and technology backgrounds. ("314" as in 3.14, as in pi. Is it wrong that I'm proud I figured this out on my own?) The PAC's poll also has Moulton at 49 but finds Tisei at just 31, which is probably too good to be true. As we've written before, Democrats are very likely to have an easier time holding this seat with Moulton as the nominee instead of Tierney, and these polls support that notion.
Grab Bag:
• President-by-LD: Today we pay a visit to Pennsylvania, a blue state where Republicans hold majorities in both legislative chambers. Democrats are working to flip the state Senate and make gains in the House, but the Republicans have drawn the lines to make sure this won't be easy.
Utilizing interactive maps by Stephen Wolf, Jeff Singer takes a look at both chambers in a new post. Jeff analyzes both parties' targets in Pennsylvania's Senate to see if Democrats can net the seats they need to win control of the chamber. Team Blue does have a path to victory, but there's no room for error here. You can take a look at how each state House, state Senate, and congressional district voted in each 2012 partisan statewide contest here. As always, you can find a master list of all our state data here.
Ads & Independent Expenditures:
• AR-Sen: Crossroads GPS accuses Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor for wanting to raise the Social Security eligibility age for Arkansans while making it easier for undocumented immigrants to get Social Security benefits. On the Democratic side, Senate Majority PAC hits Republican Tom Cotton for opposing the Farm Bill.
• CO-Sen: NextGen Climate ties Republican Rep. Cory Gardner to polluters. On the GOP side, Crossroads GPS features four women around a kitchen counter accusing Democratic Sen. Mark Udall of treating them like single-issue voters while hiding his own voting record. Just like in so many political spots, the actors in the Crossroads commercial don't remotely sound like real people.
• IA-Sen: The Sierra Club shows several clips of Republican Joni Ernst saying crazy things to argue that she's dangerous. The DSCC also goes after Ernst for wanting to eliminate the Department of Education.
On the GOP side, the NRSC alleges that Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley barely shows up in Congress. Crossroads GPS also hits Braley over his opposition to the Keystone Pipeline. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce goes positive and features Chuck Grassley, Ernst's would-be Republican Senate colleague, singing her praises.
• KS-Sen: Republican Sen. Pat Roberts launches the first of what will be many ads tying independent Greg Orman to national Democrats. The narrator cites Orman's donations to Democrats, and opposition to repealing Obamacare. The rest of the ad is the usual "Look how bad Obamacare is!!!" rhetoric.
• KY-Sen: Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell once again ties Democrat Alison Grimes to Obama. The spot uses clips from a recent Grimes ad where she fired a gun to argue that looking tough doesn't make her any less of an Obama supporter. The Kentucky Opportunity Coalition also goes after Grimes on immigration.
• MI-Sen: Ending Spending takes out another $472,000 against Democrat Gary Peters, while NextGen Climate spends $324,000 (here and here) against Republican Terri Lynn Land.
• MN-Sen: Republican Mike McFadden again hits Democratic Sen. Al Franken for ducking debates, with McFadden accusing the senator of trying to hide his voting record.
• NC-Sen: The NRSC argues that Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan has accomplished nothing in Washington.
• NH-Sen: Senate Majority PAC ties Republican Scott Brown to crooked companies.
• AZ-Gov: Democrat Fred DuVal features former U.S. Attorney Paul Charlton, a Republican, praising his integrity.
• CO-Gov: Republican Bob Beauprez talks education.
• CT-Gov: The DGA-aligned Connecticut Forward accuses Republican Tom Foley of not caring about regular people.
• FL-Gov: Democrat Charlie Crist once again goes after Republican Gov. Rick Scott on education cuts. The state GOP hits Crist on the same thing.
• ME-Gov: Independent Eliot Cutler hits his opponents Republican Gov. Paul LePage and Democratic Rep. Mike Michaud for refusing to debate.
• NE-Gov: Democrat Chuck Hassebrook attacks Republican Pete Ricketts for trying to get out of paying taxes while trying to raise other people's.
• SC-Gov: Self-funding independent Tom Ervin is spending another $500,000 on a new TV ad blitz.
• WI-Gov: Democrat Mary Burke goes after Republican Scott Walker on condition of the state economy.
• AZ-02: Democratic Rep. Ron Barber is the latest politician to depict Congress as a bunch of children. Also on the Democratic side, Americans for Responsible Solutions accuses Republican Martha McSally of opposing legislation that would make it harder for stalkers to get guns. The ad features a woman whose husband and daughter were murdered by a stalker.
• CA-21: Republican Rep. David Valadao has a generic positive ad.
• FL-18: Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy touts his endorsements from several local politicians, none of whom are Democrats.
• GA-12: The NRCC accusing Democratic Rep. John Barrow of voting for taxpayer funded abortions.
• IL-12: Democrats have tried to portray Republican Mike Bost as an angry crazy guy. Bost tries to reverse the attack, saying the direction of the country makes him angry. That doesn't stop Democratic Rep. Bill Enyart from airing another spot focusing on Bost's temper.
• MI-01: The NRCC evidently thinks that Republican Rep. Dan Benishek has a real race on his hands against Democrat Jerry Cannon. The group has just reserved $1 million here, a huge sum for such an inexpensive media market. The DCCC is already spending here.
• WV-03: Democratic Rep. Nick Rahall cites his work on securing benefits for minors who suffer from black lung, while arguing Republican Evan Jenkins wants to take those benefits away. On the GOP side, the NRCC ties Rahall to... guess who. I'll give you a hint: If you spell his name backwards you get Amabo Kcarab.
• DCCC: National Democrats are running new spots in IL-12, MN-08, NY-24, VA-10, and WV-03. All but VA-10 are Democratic held.
The most interesting is their NY-24 spot: This race had largely been ignored for most of the cycle, but the NRCC recently started airing spots against Democratic Rep. Dan Maffei. Now that the DCCC is going after Republican John Katko, it looks like we have a real race here.
• NRSC: Various expenditures.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, with additional contributions from Jeff Singer, David Jarman, and Steve Singiser.
