GOP Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker shootin' blanks at 2016.
As Republicans take a victory lap over the ruling that
temporarily halts President Obama's immigration actions, they have forgotten one thing about their party's political future: they're screwed.
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz called Judge Andrew Hanen's ruling "a major victory for the rule of law" and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, who led the charge on filing the suit, said the decision "rightly stops the president’s overreach in its tracks."
But whatever one may think about the rule of law, Republicans are digging themselves a political grave for at least a generation of Latino voters, especially when it comes to national elections. The GOP-led lawsuit from 26 states seeking to block Obama's attempt to provide deportation relief for up to five million immigrants represents a significant ratcheting up of the Republican assault on the Latino voting bloc. It's a bloc that pollsters like Matt Barretto of Latino Decisions expect to account for around 11 to 12 percent of the 2016 electorate (up from about eight percent in 2014).
Now, not only have congressional Republicans gone out of their way to block Obama's executive actions through the House's ill-fated Department of Homeland Security funding bill, but Republican governors and attorneys general across the nation are also targeting the immigration community.
Republicans appear to have forgotten that the last Republican governor from a red state who came to occupy the Oval Office was pro-immigration reform. George W. Bush may not have been able to convince his party to come along with him on policy, but he openly supported immigration reform and advocated for greater outreach to the Latino community. It was a necessity and his political brain, Karl Rove, got it.
But the GOP seems to have lost its political brain. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, for instance, is a party to the case and also a 2016 hopeful who appears to be giving Jeb Bush a run for his money in these early campaign stages. Walker looks to be a contender who has a shot at winning the GOP nomination, and in that regard, this lawsuit could help him. But in a general election, this lawsuit will be the millstone around his neck, all but sinking his candidacy.
Head below the fold for more on the lawsuit's 2016 implications.
1:47 PM PT: UPDATE: Here's a tweet from Jorge Ramos, a very influential Latino journalist at Univision:
The Texas decision clearly defines who is against immigrants in the U.S. Latino voters will remember; 2016 is not that far away.
— @jorgeramosnews
John McCain, for instance, may have needed to "complete the danged fence" in order win his 2010 primary against a right winger in Arizona, but Mitt Romney's support for "self-deportation" and promise to veto the Dream Act sealed the fate of his 2012 candidacy.
On the day Walker announced that he had directed his state to join the case, he noted that the lawsuit was "not about immigration" but rather the "legality of President Obama's actions."
"President Obama’s actions represent a violation of his constitutional duty to faithfully execute the laws and exceed the limits of his administrative powers," he said.
That distinction—between politics and the law—may matter to him, but it is not likely to matter to the Latino community. When Obama announced his latest immigration actions in November 2014,
Latino Decisions found that fully 89 percent of Latino voters supported the measures. The poll also tested how helpful supporting the policies would be for the candidacy of Hillary Clinton. It found that 85 percent of Latino voters were likely to vote for Clinton if she committed to renewing Obama's policies in 2017, and that support extended across party lines among Latino voters.
Of the 85 percent who said they would likely vote for Clinton if she renewed the measures, 73 percent were independent voters. Even a majority of Republican voters—56 percent—said Clinton's support for executive action was likely to get their vote.
Clinton, by the way, has
announced her support for the policies, calling them "an historic step."
In the wake of today's ruling, America's Voice executive director Frank Sharry noted the political turning point for Republicans, who are now seeking to undo Obama's incredibly popular actions both in the states and in Congress.
"For many years, Americans and public officials across the country have taken steps on their own to integrate and accommodate immigrants who are part of the community. They did so because our politicians in Washington refused to act. Now many of these same politicians in 26 states have decided to undo the very work of their own communities. And there will be a terrible price to pay for their crass political maneuvering."