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9:27 AM PT (David Jarman): OR-Gov: John Kitzhaber's resignation only weeks after starting his fourth term set off a variety of cascading effects in Oregon's political scene, putting then-Secretary of State Kate Brown into the governor's chair but also setting in motion an unusual 2016 special election. Republicans have had miserable luck trying to win back the governor's chair even in midterm years (something they haven't done since 1982), and while you might think a special election after a scandalous resignation would give the out-party a shot, here it's against the backdrop of presidential turnout, so it's going to be even more of an uphill climb for the GOP.
On top of that, the GOP doesn't have much of a bench in Oregon; they don't hold any statewide offices at all, so they're mostly stuck with either legislators from the red parts of the state or unelected self-funders. Nevertheless, the Republican field is starting to vaguely take shape, according to the Portland Tribune: the two likeliest candidates sound like Allen Alley and Bud Pierce. Alley is a businessman who also served briefly as Democratic Gov. Ted Kulongoski's deputy chief of staff; he was the GOP's Treasurer nominee in 2008 and then lost the GOP gubernatorial primary to Chris Dudley in 2010, so he has something of a "next in line" argument to make. Alley confirms in the article that he's "seriously considering." Pierce, as we've mentioned before, is a doctor and former head of the Oregon Medical Association but has never run for office before, which gives him access to lots of large wallets but also gives him a resume uncomfortably similar to disastrous 2014 OR-Sen candidate Monica Wehby.
The article also Great Mentions several other potential players: one is Gresham mayor Shane Bemis. (Gresham, despite the fact that you've probably never heard of it, is actually Oregon's fourth-largest city; it's a blue-collar suburb to the east of Portland.) Another option it mentions is state Rep. Julie Parrish, an up-and-comer from Portland's wealthier southern suburbs -- though Parrish denied interest in a statewide run in a press conference earlier this week.
The Oregonian separately mentions one other state Rep. as a possibility: Sherrie Sprenger, the minority whip, who says she's "been approached" about running. Her record, however, seems significantly more conservative than the other options, and she's from a rural district further south in the Willamette Valley, so she won't start with much of any name rec in the Portland market.
Local Republicans' first choice might be state Rep. Knute Buehler; he only started in the House this year, but he already has experience running statewide, running a credible race against Brown in the 2012 SoS race in his first attempt at a campaign. However, he says he's "in no hurry," and the Tribune takes that to mean that he has no plans to run.
With all that in mind, local Republican internal pollster Moore Information (apparently not acting on any candidate's behalf at this point) just took the first look at the general election, pitting the likeliest candidates against Brown. She wins those matchups pretty convincingly, though: Brown beats Alley 47-32, with 45-26 against Bemis and 45-27 against Pierce. They also poll Brown against ex-state Rep. Dennis Richardson, who lost by single digits to Kitzhaber in the 2014 election. Richardson fares the best, thanks to residual name rec, losing to Brown by a narrower 48-41. Richardson, however, stated in February that he has "no intention" of running again (though statement is a little short of Shermanesque).
However, there's also the wee matter of the Democratic primary; there is a deep Democratic bench here, and potentially one of Brown's intramural rivals could jump in before she gets too entrenched. Treasurer Ted Wheeler seems like the most likely to do so: probably the most prominent statewide Dem after Brown, he's also looking for something else to do, since he's term-limited in 2016 (he was appointed to his job in 2010 after Ben Westlund's death). Wheeler acknowledges that he's "considering" the gubernatorial race, but confirms that he's considering the Portland mayor's race as well, also up in 2016. That would also mean a challenge to an incumbent Dem, Charlie Hales, but that might be more fruitful for Wheeler.
Wheeler had probably been counting on running against Brown in a 2018 open seat primary (where he'd have gotten most of the business backing, probably giving him a big financial edge over the left-ier Brown), but with Brown now benefiting from incumbency, it's going to be much more difficult for him. And apparently parts of Portland's business community have been urging Wheeler to run for mayor instead (which must point to a split in that constituency: Hales is pretty establishment-flavored himself, and in good graces with the city's real estate developers). On the other hand, if Wheeler still hopes to run for Governor someday (in 2022?), the polarizing job of Portland mayor isn't a good stepping stone to that; no one has made that leap since Neil Goldschmidt in 1986, and he had a long stint away from Portland (including U.S. Secretary of Transportation) in between those jobs.
11:27 AM PT (Jeff Singer): PA-09: Republican Rep. Bill Shuster has had a rough couple of years, and things are only getting worse for him. Shuster turned back an underfunded primary challenge from Art Halvorson by an unimpressive 53-35 margin, with Travis Schooley taking the rest. While Shuster's ability to get transportation appropriations for his rural conservative district was once a political asset, Halvorson and Schooley attacked him as an out-of-control spender.
Shuster's image as a corrupt insider was only reinforced after news broke that not only was the divorced congressman dating an airline lobbyist, he used his post as chairman of the Transportation and Infrastructure Committee to fast-track a bill she favored (Shuster says she never lobbied his office after they started seeing each other). Halvorson has talked about running again, but he's ready to drop out in favor of a stronger candidate.
The Hill's Scott Wong reports that wealthy businessman Tom Smith, who was the Republican nominee against Sen. Bob Casey in 2012, is "seriously thinking about" running. While Smith hasn't said anything publicly about his plans, Halvorson confirms that the two met and says he'd back Smith "100 percent" if he jumps in. Given how poorly Shuster did against Halvorson even before the airline lobbyist story broke, it's a good bet he'll be in real trouble if Smith runs. And while Schooley talked about running again in January, he's instead seeking a post on the Franklin County Board of Commissioners this year.
If Smith gets in and has a clear shot at Shuster, the incumbent is going to need to work very hard to win here. Romney won this seat 63-36, so Team Red shouldn't have any problem holding it regardless of what happens.
12:11 PM PT (Jeff Singer): NV-Sen: Some people just don't know when their 15 minutes of fame are up. Earlier this month, 2010 Republican nominee Sharron Angle didn't rule out another Senate run, only telling a reporter to "I’ll let you know soon." As much as Democrats would love her to steal the nomination again, it's not particularly likely. While Angle was a tea party star six years ago, she's become a cautionary tale among Republicans... the ones that remember her, that is. If far-right types are going to rally behind anyone it will probably be Las Vegas Councilor Bob Beers, who has been running for about a year now.
12:19 PM PT (Jeff Singer): OR-Sen: There have been the occasional rumblings that Sen. Ron Wyden will receive a Democratic primary challenge over his support for the Trans-Pacific Partnership, but no credible candidates have shown any interest in taking him on. Nevertheless, Wyden appears to be taking his re-election campaign seriously, hauling in $1.3 million in the last three months and having $3.5 million in the bank.
12:30 PM PT (Jeff Singer): NY-11: Fundraising reports are out ahead of the May 5 special election, and as expected, the GOP is crushing Team Blue. Staten Island District Attorney Dan Donovan hauled in $615,000 and is sitting on $462,000, while Democratic City Councilor Vincent Gentile brought in just $196,000, and has $116,000 on hand. Team Blue conceded this contest to the GOP a long time ago and there's been no real outside spending from either side. Gov. Andrew Cuomo has also refused to endorse Gentile: I'll give you a minute to recover from the surprise.