As His Orangeness discovers foreign policy, gigantic bombs, and his executive freedom to wield raw power absent any strategy or philosophy or—god forbid, thought—2018 can’t come soon enough. Short of impeachment, it will be the first real opportunity for progressives to start grinding this nightmare to a halt and, fortunately, preliminary signs look good.
For starters, Americans’ dissatisfaction with government rates at its “highest” point since the October 2013 - January 2014 government shutdown, per Gallup.
The only other period during Gallup's polling history when a higher percentage of Americans cited government as the most important problem was in 1973 and 1974 during the Watergate crisis.
That’s music to the ears. A continued pique of dissatisfaction suggests Democrats will be as motivated as Republicans are demoralized come the midterms, which is exactly what this week has demonstrated at both the ballot box and a fresh round of raucous town halls.
Much has been made of the relatively slim 7-point margin by which Republican Ron Estes beat Democrat James Thompson for a Kansas congressional seat, and with good reason. Trump won the district by 27 points and although some people have attributed the GOP’s lost ground to Gov. Sam Brownback’s dismal popularity, 538’s Harry Enten says Trump is still a huge drag. He points out that in 2014, four Republican congressional candidates in Kansas did “3 to 15 percentage points worse than expected”—or 8 points worse on average—than the national context would have suggested that year.
So let’s say there was an 8-point Brownback Drag in 2014. An 8-point drag doesn’t come anywhere close to explaining how Estes did 22 percentage points worse than would be expected in a neutral national environment.
A Brownback drag in Kansas also does nothing to explain last week’s rout in Illinois, where local elections delivered Democratic seats in places they’ve never been able to touch.
“We had a pretty good day,” said Dan Kovats, executive director of the Illinois Democratic County Chairmen’s Association. “We won in areas we normally would win, but we also won in areas Republicans never expected us to be competitive in. They were caught flat-footed.”
But even if you distrust all this extrapolation mumbo jumbo, anecdotal evidence of a Democratic surge abounds. Progressives are reportedly champing at the bit to make the voter-to-candidate transition, even as Republican leaders have been dismayed by their difficulty in recruiting quality candidates for 2018 Senate runs.
The April congressional recess is also delivering Republicans in deep red areas more embarrassing town halls while GOP members in the most competitive districts continue to avoid such spectacles like the plague.
You’ll remember that the last recess in February took place just as the health care debate was heating up but before any concrete bill had been articulated by the GOP. Back then I took a look at how the Clinton 24—GOP members in Republican-majority districts where Hillary Clinton either beat or tied Trump—was weathering the storm.
My research of the Clinton 24 shows that 19 members have faced protests and/or petition efforts of some sort this year, at least a dozen are outright blocking constituent contact, and just a handful have actually held or scheduled some type of in-person town hall or meeting.
The view for April’s recess is even worse. Trumpcare proved to be exactly as bad as people anticipated and despite its spectacular implosion, Republicans revived a Trumpcare 2.0 effort just in time for members’ pilgrimage back home. Presumably, the idea was that they couldn’t send their members into the fray without the cover of claiming Zombiecare was still alive—as if they might really get this done. That’s gone well.
Of the Clinton 24, I found that fully 19 will be skipping in-person town halls this recess altogether. Tele-town halls and Facebook live events are not included in that number because participants can be screened and follow up questions are almost always quashed, making it easy for lawmakers to avoid tough exchanges.
Additionally, a survey of the few who have already held town hall events lends some insight into why so many of these GOP lawmakers are stonewalling.
Colorado Rep. Mike Coffman kept his crowd to a meager 800 by screening for constituents, checking photo IDs, and using a lottery system to pick the lucky attendees. People had to take numbers, wear wristbands, and abandon any signs bigger than a sheet of notebook paper. Coffman’s constituents weren’t amused.
"I had my bag checked three times to enter this venue—I assume that was to protect you. What are you doing to protect me?" asked one woman.
“I'm afraid you don't understand how Medicaid works,” said another.
New Jersey Rep. Leonard Lance, who voted for Trumpcare as a member of the House Energy and Commerce Committee then said he’d vote against it on floor, faced a crowd of 400 feisty constituents.
“I don’t feel that you’ve represented my interests or the majority of the constituents that are in your district, ” Janet Katz, a Chester Township resident, told Lance. “I want this repeal crap to stop!”
Pennsylvania Rep. Ryan Costello, who also voted for Trumpcare in committee then backed away from it, got the same warm greeting Lance did.
One woman said that through Obamacare’s coverage, she pays $35 a month for prescription drugs to treat a disease -- which she did not name. Those drugs would cost $750 per month out of pocket, she said.
Within weeks of Obamacare’s repeal, she said, “I will be dead.”
“I’d like to know if you’re going to come to my funeral,” she asked Costello.
Though most of the Clinton 24 who aren’t holding April town halls have been avoiding them all along, a few did hold in-person events in March. Texas Rep. Pete Sessions, for instance, had more than 2,000 voters at his mid-March town hall. The raucous crowd wasn’t particularly impressed with his answers, but some attendees did express appreciation that he had faced them at all.
That is decidedly not the case for Virginia Rep. Barbara Comstock. Her constituents got so fed up with her MIA status that they amassed enough cash through a group called Dump Comstock to let the lawmaker know exactly how they feel.
Also aggravated by their representatives’ lack of accountability, Democratic constituents in Southern California smell blood in the water. Among the GOP’s Orange County contingent—Reps. Ed Royce (CA-39), Mimi Walters (CA-45), Dana Rohrabacher (CA-48), and Darrell Issa (CA-49)—Royce is the only OC Republican who doesn’t already have 2018 challengers lining up to take him on.
It no secret that Republicans are losing market share countywide – the party’s 10-point edge in 2012 is now less than 4 points. Less publicized is how that trend extends to the House districts.
Issa, who has two Democratic challengers for 2018 so far, has seen the GOP advantage in his district go from 13 points in 2012 to 7 points today.
Rep. Mimi Walters, R-Laguna Beach, who has three Democratic opponents, has watched the edge go from 15.5 points to 9 points.
Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, R-Costa Mesa, who has four Democratic challengers, has seen the spread go from 15 points to 11 points.
In fact, Issa, who just barely eked out a win in 2016, is doing something we can expect to see from a lot of the Clinton 24: moving to distance himself from both Trump and many of his previous of positions. He’s a pro-lifer who suddenly opposes defunding Planned Parenthood, a climate denier who has recently expressed support for the EPA and joined the bi-partisan Climate Solutions Caucus, and a one-time Trump devotee who has waffled on backing Trumpcare.
Democrats will need to retake some two dozen seats in 2018 to take back control of the House. Keep an eye on the Clinton 24—the more they contort themselves on policy and avoid constituent contact, the more vulnerable their seats will become.
The Clinton 24
1. Martha McSally, AZ-02, Clinton
2. Jeff Denham, CA-10, Clinton
3. David Valadao, CA-21, Clinton
4. Steve Knight, CA-25, Clinton
5. Ed Royce, CA-39, Clinton
6. Mimi Walters, CA-45, Clinton
7. Dana Rohrabacher, CA-48, Clinton
8. Darrell Issa, CA-49, Clinton
9. Mike Coffman, CO-06, Clinton
10. Carlos Curbelo, FL-26, Clinton
11. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, FL-27, Clinton
12. Peter Roskam, IL-06, Clinton
13. Kevin Yoder, KS-03, Clinton
14. Erik Paulsen, MN-03, Clinton
15. Leonard Lance, NJ-07, Clinton
16. John Katko, NY-24, Clinton
17. Ryan Costello, PA-06, Clinton
18. Pat Meehan, PA-07, Clinton
19. *Brian Fitzpatrick, PA-08, (Tossup, C: 48%, T: 48.2%)
20. John Culberson, TX-07, Clinton
21. Will Hurd, TX-23, Clinton
22. Pete Sessions, TX-32, Clinton
23. Barbara Comstock, VA-10, Clinton
24. David Reichert, WA-08, Clinton