Need Motivation? Saudi Oil Minister Openly Mocks EVs
“...despite all the hype ...electric vehicles with 0.2 percent of the fleet, only substitute about 30,000 barrels per day of oil equivalent of a total global oil demand of about 100 million barrels. Even if those numbers increase by a factor of 100 over the next couple of decades, they would still remain negligible”
That was the Saudi Oil Energy Minister at an international pro-oil conference in Delhi last month. The minister may know his oil numbers (almost 100MB/d is apparently right, alas), but he’s off by x5-x10 or so on EV impact. There are ~3.5 million passenger/SUV EVs in service now — will reach a global 0.5% by by early next year, not 0.2%. Since a typical ICE car consumes 10-15 barrels of crude per year, or one every ~30 days, those EVs displace >100kB/day, not 30k.
Now add hundreds of thousands of electric buses, vans and trucks — predominantly in China — that already displace an additional >100k barrels/day on their own. Multiplying these combined numbers by 100 would throw, to put it mildly, quite a wrench into Big Oil.
Now note how fast EV sales are ramping up. 2017 global sales were up 6x from 2013 — that’s >55% average annual increase over 4 years. It’s getting even faster: through Sep. 2018, we’ve been +68% over 2017. At this pace, we’ll reach the cumulative “100x the present” mark in ~10 years rather than 20. But since we’re already displacing far more oil than the honorable minister said, Big Oil will feel the pain much, much earlier. In fact, the very reason for his little speech is to try and put the EV genie back into the box, particularly in India that has been sitting on the EV sidelines, but is now gearing up to move in big time.
To top it off, the minister sprinkled a few debunked anti-EV canards and fallacies, designed to make people doubt the EV concept regardless of potential impact.
What is Big Oil’s message to us, this time via the Saudi Minister?
“You don’t matter. Whatever you do won’t make a difference. We will continue to dominate your world, so just move along.”
In short, precisely the strategy used by the GOP and the billionaire class, in trying to gaslight people and dissuade them from activism, or from voting Democrat.
Just like we saw in the elections, your individual action and vote do matter. It does make a difference. Going electric is like voting with your wheels, and it’s also direct activism that inflicts economic damage on Big Oil and spreads the message in your social circle.
Do it. Find someone else who can do it. Lobby your local transit agency to commit to electric buses. Go forth and multiply. On to EV Black Friday.
Recommended Models
Compare to the lists from #RbPi5 posted exactly a year ago… some things have improved a lot, some stayed roughly the same.
For the budget-minded, I’m starting with used EVs. I’m not ranking the list, but these are the most prevalent and affordable ones that I’d recommend.
Used model and years |
type |
range (mi) |
price ($k) |
Nissan leaf 2014-15 |
BEV |
70-85 |
9-15 |
chevy volt 2011-15 |
PHEV |
30-40 |
8-16 |
Nissan leaf 2011-13 |
BEV |
50-75 |
5-10 |
ford c-max energi 2013-16 |
PHEV |
15-20 |
9-16 |
The used model list is still fairly short, reflecting the much smaller variety of EVs sold in volume a few years ago. If you’re curious, 2013 Teslas start at >$30k; you can get into a brand-new Chevy Bolt for much less than that.
How many of these used EVs you can find, varies greatly by region. On any West Coast market there are dozens/hundreds of used Leafs; far less elsewhere.
The used Leafs work best in a multi-car household, where they will be the weekday workhorses. Or, this could be your only car if you are really on a budget but can still borrow/rent a car for out-of-town trips. Be sure to get a LeafSpy app (which requires a physical “dongle” plug) and test the battery yourself before buying, and ask/read online to understand what to test for. It’s better to get a Leaf with a quick-charge port (most of them do), or at least bargain hard when buying a Leaf without one.
I separated out 2011-13 and 14-15 model years, because the latter are the Gen-1 Leaf’s “golden years” in terms of battery quality and overall stability. With a 2014/5 you will likely get a battery in good condition, plus the 5-year, 60k-mile battery warranty may have some juice left in case something goes downhill quickly. The 2013 is also dramatically better than 2011-12 (15% longer range, less battery problems) but is quite distinct from 2014, which still holds the crown for most Leafs sold in a year in the US. The main reason to get a 2011-12 is of course price. A $5k car with no gas/maintenance expenses? If the remaining battery range holds up for you, or if the previous owner already replaced it, it’s the best steal you can find in any technology.
As to the two PHEVs on the list, the Volt is definitely a better car, but it only has 4 seats and many drivers find the driver’s seat too cramped as well. The C-Max Energi (whose battery takes up most of the trunk space) can be a viable alternative. See this excellent diary by an Energi driver for some firsthand experience.
Above ~$16k, you might as well get a new EV. After rebates and discount it won’t be much more, maybe even less. Recommended affordable BEVs, ranked by best value (according to moi):
new bev model |
epa range (mi) |
msrp ($k) |
after rebates/discounts* ($k) |
lease** ($/month) |
1. chevy bolt |
238 |
37.5-44 |
22-32 |
230-330 |
2. Nissan Leaf |
151 |
29-35 |
20-30 |
200-300 |
3. hyundai ioniq bev |
124 |
30-37 |
20-28 |
260-350 |
4. Tesla model 3 |
260-310 |
46-72 |
38.5-65 |
n/a |
*Rebate is the Federal $7.5k. If your 2018 tax liability (including amount withheld) is lower, you won’t get the full rebate. That’s another reason why leases are such a good choice for EVs. There may be additional rebates in many leading EV states. In addition, Costco sometimes offers heavy discounts on EVs. Check it out if you’re a member.
**Average lease price includes down payment amortized over the lease period.
Just like last year, the best value BEV is doubtlessly the Bolt. Nowadays it is pretty heavily discounted, probably trying to snare away some of that Model 3 gold dust.
The Model 3 itself crept into this list, thanks to its hastily-arranged 260-mile version (which got an even hastier $1k price increase, apparently). Now only $3k cheaper than the 310-mile; just enough to bring the base price to the top of what can be considered “midmarket” after Federal rebate. Note however, that the full rebate is only guaranteed if you order your Model 3 by the end of November. And if you’re not on the Model 3 waitlist, you may not be able to order that soon. Delivery after December 31 will cost you $3750 more.
Sadly some midmarket BEVs have (temporarily?) all but stopped arriving to the US: the Soul EV and the VW e-Golf. Likely a volume-priority decision until they can deliver a range that competes with Tesla/Chevy/Nissan, likely next year. Conversely, two 200+ mile Korean SUV BEVs are due here early 2019.
The Ioniq BEV was only offered in California in 2018, but now it is showing up on dealer ads on the East Coast as well. Despite the shorter-looking range, it received stellar reviews in winter test drives in Norway, outperforming its nameplate range thanks to excellent highway efficiency.
Note that just like last year, Chevys top the best-value list for both BEVs and PHEVs. Act fast: unless there’s quick legislation to extend the Federal rebate, GM’s rebate too will be halved starting April 1.
Whew! I’m worn out. Hopefully more than 7 people read this. Happy holiday.